Villanova: Will the Wildcats’ offense be as effective without a clear go-to guy?
Jay Wright Wonders Where His Offense Will Come From (USA Today Images)
Villanova’s roster last season was missing a perimeter creator and Jay Wright clearly had expected 2018 Final Four MOP Donte DiVincenzo to have filled that role. Seniors Phil Booth and Eric Paschall were terrific on their own, but a supporting cast led by Joe Cremo and Jahvon Quinerly fell woefully short of preseason expectations. Collin Gillespie began to flourish when Booth assumed the go-to scoring role, but he looked overmatched as the lead ball-handler. Saddiq Bey and Jermaine Samuels showed great promise as well, but neither created for themselves very often.
The 2019-20 Wildcats do not have any unforeseen departures, but they did lose the only two players in Booth and Paschall who could consistently put the ball in the basket. A strong group of returnees is bolstered by an excellent freshman class, but it is difficult to see how the Villanova offense moves forward. When you factor in the fifth-year seniors’ wealth of experience and essential contributions, an adjustment period feels inevitable.
Still, most prognosticators disagree. Despite finishing 30th in KenPom last season and losing their two most productive players, the Wildcats are expected by many to be significantly better this season. Villanova has been consistently ranked as a top-10 team in most human polls and computer metrics. I expect Villanova finish closer to 20th nationally. Their defense has elite potential with great positional size and versatility, but the losses of Booth and Paschal — especially on the offensive end — are being undersold. Multiple players will need to take major leaps in their skill set development to become consistent shot creators. Freshman Bryan Antoine was the most logical candidate until his season was jeopardized with a shoulder injury. Bey and Justin Moore could fill that role eventually, but it is probably too soon to place that burden on them. Perhaps big man Jeremiah Robinson-Earl can add an interior scoring punch, but will that be enough?
Xavier: Was last year’s end of season push a mirage or a sign of things to come?
Marquette: Will a stylistic change pay off for the Golden Eagles?
All-America Guard Markus Howard Leads Marquette (USA Today Images)
Marquette was gaining traction as a potential elite team for the upcoming season once All-America guard Markus Howard removed his name from the NBA Draft. That is, until two of the most shocking transfer decisions in recent memory grinded those premature expectations and optimism to a halt. Without the Hauser brothers returning (they have since transferred to Virginia and Michigan State), an immediate reaction was to bury Marquette. The pair were absolutely integral to the spacing and three-point shooting that made opposing defenses fear the Golden Eagles’ potent offense. As the offseason progressed, however, Marquette slowly looked more favorable and even appeared in some Top 25 polls.
Marquette could plausibly repeat last year’s performance and warrant such preseason recognition, but there is no debate that this year’s team will bear little resemblance to a lineup that was loaded with long-range threats a year ago. As a result, few teams will undergo as drastic a stylistic change in one offseason. The Golden Eagles’ identity has now pivoted toward length, athleticism, and a possible two-big lineup.
Surprisingly, head coach Steve Wojciechowski did not chase a shot-making wing or stretch power forward to replace the Hausers. They will be instead replaced with scoring combo-guard Koby McEwen and versatile forward Brendan Bailey. McEwen averaged 15.6 PPG and 3.2 APG for Utah State two seasons ago and is known for his ability to attack the basket. Bailey averaged 3.2 PPG as a freshman and will need to make a major leap. The 6’8’’ forward shot a paltry 25 percent from three-point range, but that number should increase considerably as he becomes more comfortable.
Almost as surprising as the Hauser brothers leaving was the addition of Jayce Johnson to the roster. Johnson was a starting center at Utah and turned down numerous starting opportunities to become the backup at Marquette. That is how the graduate transfer logically fits on this roster, but Wojciechowski mentioned playing the big man alongside Theo John in what would undoubtedly be a disaster with neither player scoring outside the paint. Pairing Ed Morrow with either traditional center would be more palatable, but it would still be a stark contrast from the incredible shooting and spacing Marquette enjoyed last year.
Despite all these changes, Marquette still returns the anchor of its offense in Howard and the anchor of its defense in John. Sacar Anim has excelled as a glue guy and perimeter defender and can now show his full offensive arsenal. These three veterans will raise Marquette’s floor considerably, even if its new identity flops. As long as they stay away (far away) from playing John and Johnson together and emphasize their increased length and athleticism, Marquette should plan to return to the NCAA Tournament.
Providence: Will an upgrade at point guard be enough to save Providence’s struggling offense?
Ed Cooley Brings Back an Interesting Friars Squad (USA Today Images)
Providence missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 last season despite owning a talented roster filled with several former top recruits and numerous proven Big East players. The reason was very simple — the Friars could not score. Ed Cooley‘s offense ranked 164th in KenPom (eighth-worst high-major team); it was 257th in three-point percentage, 275th in two point percentage, and even struggled to convert free throws (235th).
While it may look like shooting the ball was the Friars’ biggest issue, point guard play was the root cause of these offensive deficiencies. Providence lacked someone who could consistently create his own shot during shot-clock situations and generate easy opportunities for his teammates. Cooley rotated through all of his lead guards at one time or another, but none were able to separate themselves and consistently deliver suitable results.
David Duke made an immediate defensive impact but looked extremely uncomfortable running the team. He had trouble creating shots and fared much better when he was eventually moved off the ball. Maliek White showed flashes of being the answer at point guard, but was too inconsistent to be permanently given the reins. Makai Ashton Langford was just plain ineffective. Even Alpha Diallo’s game grew increasingly sloppy and inefficient when trying to be the team’s lead offensive creator.
No team relies on its point guard more than Providence. Per Jordan Sperber, Cooley’s lead guards have the highest assist rate in college basketball, which speaks to the enormous responsibility of being slotted in that position. Fortunately, Providence struck gold with its inaugural dive into the graduate transfer market by landing Luwane Pipkins. The dynamic guard will certainly inject offense into the lineup, but at what cost? Last year’s team had enough talent to play in a lesser postseason tournament (NIT or CBI), but instead cratered to become Massachusetts’ worst team of the KenPom era (dating back to 1997).
The hope is that Pipkins can be the missing piece to an already talented roster. If he can create open threes for AJ Reeves, ease some of the offensive burden off of Diallo, and find Nate Watson more easy opportunities around the basket, this Providence offense could flourish. When you throw in a potential breakout candidate in Duke, a possible return to form from Emmitt Holt, and a deep veteran bench, you can really see some upside. If the Friars can integrate Pipkins and maintain their stellar defense, the sky is the limit this season for Providence.
Despite losing its three leading scorers from last season, Xavier was expected to remain relevant in the Big East race. Trevon Bluiett, JP Macura and Kerem Kanter all averaged double-figure points for the Musketeers last season, but returnees like Naji Marshall and Quentin Goodin were anticipated to fill the void. No one thought Xavier was set to replicate last season’s #1 seed level of success, but a sixth straight NCAA Tournament bid seemed completely attainable. With a 1-2 trip to the Maui Invitational now in the rear view, however, the Musketeers have squandered a golden opportunity to build their non-conference resume.
Xavier’s 1-2 Trip to Maui Puts a Significant Strain on Its NCAA At-Large Resume (USA Today Images)
For most of last week’s first round game against Auburn, it looked like Xavier had hit the jackpot. Ultimately, however, the Tigers prevailed in overtime with dynamic guards Jared Harper and Bryce Brown combining for 51 points in an overtime victory. Xavier was fortunate enough to have another opportunity for a quality win in the consolation round, though, as San Diego State should remain in the season-long discussion for a bid out of the Mountain West. The Musketeers built a substantial lead in the early portion of the first half of that game, but the Aztecs stormed back late and earned a five-point win. That loss meant Xavier was relegated to the seventh place game where they stopped the bleeding by defeating a struggling Illinois team. Given that the Fighting Illini will likely finish in the bottom three of the Big Ten this season, the win didn’t have much long-term at-large value. Xavier shot the ball extremely well in that game, but they were sloppy with the ball far too often.
After splitting the Gavitt Games in the first three years of its existence, the Big Ten has dominated in year four. The pair of teams projected at the top of the Big East this season — Villanova and Marquette — provided little resistance against Michigan and Indiana earlier this week. Meanwhile, Xavier and Creighton dropped home games to Wisconsin and Ohio State while Seton Hall proved to be no match for Nebraska. As it turns out, Georgetown and DePaul are the only Big East teams to win thus far, knocking off Illinois and Penn State (but both were without one of their top two players).
Steve Wojchiechowski is in the midst of a rebuild at Marquette. (Mark Hoffman/The Journal Sentinel)
On paper, these match-ups looked fairly even, but the Big Ten has proved to be the superior conference at this early point. Normally, these conference challenges need to be taken with a grain of salt as they are only one benchmark to compare conference strength. However, after the Big Ten’s beat-down of the Big East this week, not many reasonable people would think the Big East is the superior league. If St. John’s falls to Rutgers on Friday evening, it will cap off an embarrassing week for the conference.
Even though this has been a horrible start, it is still not time to panic. Even if the Big Ten is the better league, that does not mean the Big East won’t improve. Earning 28 NCAA Tournament berths in the last five years gives it the benefit of the doubt. Villanova has won two National Championships in the last three seasons; Xavier has an Elite Eight appearance under its belt: Providence has made five straight NCAA Tournaments; and Butler has consistently advanced in the postseason. These are great basketball programs that have proven resilient time and time again.
Here are the top 16 players in the Big East to conclude the series. Part I can be found here and Part II can be found here.
Markus Howard is one of the More Interesting Players in College Basketball (USA Today Images)
16. Eli Cain, DePaul, SR, Wing. Cain experienced decreased scoring and efficiency as a junior, a decline that coincided with his move from the wing to the point guard position. But last year’s lead guard experiment should ultimately benefit the senior as he was able to diversify his skill set. As Cain returns to his natural position this season as a secondary ball-handler, expect a bounce-back campaign. He averaged 11.7 PPG and 4.7 APG last year.
15. Emmitt Holt, Providence, SR, PF. Holt missed all of last season with an injury/illness, but he should make a substantial impact in his return to the Providence lineup this year. The 6’7’’ senior played almost exclusively at center two seasons ago, but he will now see more time at power forward, correspondingly reducing his quickness advantage over opposing big men. Holt can score with his back to the basket, attack from the high post, and hit three-point jumpers, which makes him a very dangerous offensive player.
14. Naji Marshall, Xavier, SO, Wing. Marshall broke into the starting lineup midway through last season and showed great potential as a freshman. The 6’7’’ wing can play both the three and the four positions and should be in position to break out in replacement of Trevon Blueitt. He averaged 7.7 PPG and 4.4 RPG a season ago, but he could easily approach 15.0 PPG in his new role. The versatile and athletic Marshall is certainly a player to watch over the next few seasons.
13. Quentin Goodin, Xavier, JR, Guard. Goodin was forced into major minutes as a freshman at Xavier when Edmund Sumner suffered an injury. There was a steep learning curve for him at that point, but he ultimately benefited from being thrown into the fire because he has developed into one of the best players in the conference. He is a big physical guard who can attack the basket, defend at a high level, and facilitate for his teammates. Goodin shot 40 percent from three-point range in Big East play last season, and if he can replicate that accuracy, he will be rightly considered a top-tier point guard in college basketball.
12. Max Strus, DePaul, SR, Wing. Strus made the jump from D-II look effortless last year with a seamless transition to high-major basketball. The 6’6’’ wing is a knockdown shooter who should become one of the top scorers in the Big East this season. He averaged 16.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and hit 81 three-pointers as a junior.
11. Justin Simon, St. John’s, JR, Guard. Simon is a stat sheet stuffer who impacts the game in a variety of ways. The versatile 6’5’’ guard averaged 12.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG and 5.1 APG last season. Between his size and defensive ability, Simon is an ideal fit next to Shamorie Ponds in the St. John’s backcourt. If he can replicate his 42 percent three-point shooting from a season ago, he will become an NBA Draft pick.
10. Sam Hauser, Marquette, JR, Wing. Hauser is one of the best three-point shooters in college basketball and is a prototypical stretch four. It will be interesting to see if he is asked to be more of a creator now that Andrew Rowsey has graduated, and if that impacts his efficiency. The savvy junior averaged 14.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, and shot an incredible 49 percent from three-point range last year.
The Big East is once again loaded but there has been a clear changing of the guard since many of the league’s best players were seniors. Stars such as Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington, Desi Rodriguez, Kyron Cartwright, Rodney Bullock, Marcus Foster, Trevon Blueitt, JP Macura, Kelan Martin, and Andrew Rowsey have exhausted their eligibility. Of course, Villanova’s quartet of NBA early entrants — Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Omari Spellman, Donte Divencenzo — and a couple more, like Khyri Thomas and Marcus Derrickson, are now on NBA rosters. The Big East lost a significant amount of talent, but, as always, there are a number of players who are ready to step into bigger roles and become the faces of their respective programs.
JuCo Transfer Zach Hankins at Xavier is One of the More Interesting Big East Prospects This Season (USA Today Images)
This three-part article will rank the top 50 players in the Big East this season, starting with #50 to #34 today. The player’s ability and projected production were factors in determining the ranking. There were six players who just missed the cut and are too good to omit entirely: Sedee Keita (St. John’s), Jalen Coleman-Lands (DePaul), AJ Reeves (Providence), Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree (Villanova), Femi Olujobi (DePaul), and Henry Baddley (Butler). Here are the top 50 players in the Big East this season.
50. Cole Swider, Villanova, FR, Wing. Villanova’s roster is loaded with freshman and sophomore wings, but Swider could have the best chance to emerge from that group. The 6’9’’ combo forward is an excellent three-point shooter which should allow him to earn a spot in the Wildcats’ rotation.
49. Joey Hauser, Marquette, FR, PF. Hauser is the younger brother of Marquette’s starting power forward, Sam Hauser. Much like his brother, Joey should be able to provide immediate scoring and outside shooting off the bench. It will be interesting to see if Marquette uses him as a small-ball five for certain stretches in an offensive-centric lineup.
48. Mikey Dixon, St. John’s, SO, Guard. Dixon is a Quinnipiac transfer who is entering his first eligible year at St. John’s after averaging 16.5 PPG and shooting 37 percent from three-point range as a freshman. Dixon will likely be part of a much improved Red Storm bench where he will play both backcourt positions.
47. Davion Mintz, Creighton, JR, Guard. Mintz has been Creighton’s starting point guard since Maurice Watson suffered a season-ending ACL injury two seasons ago. He has typically deferred to the offensive skill sets of Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas on his own team, but he will now need to play a more active role in the offense (6.1 PPG/3.1 APG last season). At 6’3″, Mintz has great size for a lead guard, is a good athlete, and a steady floor general.
46. Nate Fowler, Butler, SR, Center. Fowler has steadily increased his production throughout his career and should finally get the opportunity to start as a senior. The 6’10’’ center is a skilled offensive player who can stretch the defense, but he is a below average athlete for the Big East. Fowler averaged 5.9 PPG and 3.1 RPG as a junior.
45. Brendan Bailey, Marquette, FR, Wing. Bailey is a former top 100 recruit who spent his last two years on a Mormon mission. The 6’8’’ wing is a talented scorer who will play a major role immediately for the Golden Eagles. It would not be surprising to see the freshman crack the starting lineup and give Marquette a third reliable perimeter scorer next to Sam Hauser and Markus Howard.
44. David Duke, Providence, FR, Guard. Duke is a long and athletic guard who looks like he will be an opening day starter for Providence. He will have big shoes to fill as Kyron Cartwright was such a vital piece of the Friars’ program, but his ability to defend and finish at the rim will also be invaluable. The 6’5’’ freshman is not a good perimeter shooter, however, which could limit him offensively.
Over the coming weeks, the Big East microsite will be previewing all the teams, players and key storylines to watch as we approach season tip-off. Be sure to follow @RTCBigEast and its contributors Justin Kundrat and Brad Cavallaro to get your fix. In the spotlight today will be (alphabetically) Seton Hall and St. John’s.
Seton Hall: Can Seton Hall’s pair of transfers fill the gigantic void left by its departed senior class?
Raise Your Hands if Seton Hall Will Miss These Guys (USA Today Images)
Seton Hall has enjoyed a recent period of success in large part because of its stellar 2014 recruiting class. The group of Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington, Desi Rodriguez, Ish Sanogo (and Isaiah Whitehead for two years) have transformed the team’s national perception in leading the Pirates to three straight NCAA Tournament appearances. Unfortunately for head coach Kevin Willard, these key players have exhausted their eligibility, leaving holdover Myles Powell as the team’s only returning starter. The junior guard appears poised to take a significant step forward this season, ready to become Seton Hall’s locker room leader and one of the best players in the Big East. In support of Powell, sophomore wing Myles Cale is an obvious candidate to put together a breakout season after his strong finish a season ago — 7.0 PPG in his last seven games — but Seton Hall’s season will ultimately come down to the performance of their two incoming transfers, Taurean Thompson and Quincy McKnight.
Thompson started as a freshman at Syracuse and put up solid offensive numbers there (9.2 PPG on 55% FG shooting), but he often drew the ire of fans with his defensive indifference and tendency to settle for contested mid-range jumpers. Scoring seems a strong suit, but will his defense, rebounding and overall floor game satisfy Willard? McKnight did it all for a terrible Sacred Heart team in averaging 18.9 PPG two seasons ago, but his assist-to-turnover ratio was putrid (0.65 ATO). He will need to upgrade his decision-making with the ball to stay on the floor against Big East competition, but hopefully last year spent practicing with a very talented team has allowed him to shore up that weakness.
Analyst rankings of Seton Hall this preseason seem to correlate with views on Thompson and McKnight. Those who think that both will become outstanding Big East players have Seton Hall returning to the Big Dance; those who have lukewarm feelings on the pair place the Pirates in the NIT; and those who are down on the duo have Willard’s club missing the postseason entirely. I have some optimism that Thompson and McKnight will become capable starters for this squad, but not necessarily good enough to push Seton Hall back into the NCAA Tournament. Expect a mid-level season for the Pirates.
Every team experiences roster turnover and this offseason was no different. What’s interesting this time around, though, is that those personnel moves were particularly harsh to the better half of the conference. Villanova, Xavier, Butler, Seton Hall and Providence – the conference’s five representatives in the NCAA Tournament last season — each lost leading scorers or otherwise critical starters. Some of the bottom half of the league, however – e.g., Creighton and St. John’s — emerged relatively unscathed. There will be some natural upheaval in the standings as teams at the top re-position themselves with different rosters, but the 2016-17 Big East is likely to hinge on a number of key questions and themes below.
What to Make of Seton Hall Without Isaiah Whitehead?
Khadeen Carrington is Poised to Handle Seton Hall’s Attack (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
The highly touted 6’4” guard lived up to the hype in his sophomore season and used it to sign a four-year contract with the Brooklyn Nets over the summer. By putting the ball in his star’s hands and letting him create, Kevin Willard led the Pirates to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2006. Whitehead was one of the highest usage players in the country last season, and rightfully so — his ability to get into the lane to score or dish puts immense pressure on opposing help defenders. With Whitehead no longer around, Willard will turn to junior Khadeen Carrington to handle the point guard duties. Carrington is more than capable of running the show, but teams always take a different form after losing a ball-dominant player. Whitehead and departed senior Derrick Gordon accounted for over half of the team’s assists last season, so the biggest question at Seton Hall is whether anyone on the team other than Carrington is capable of propelling the offense. Swingman Desi Rodriguez didn’t show that he could create much off the dribble last season and forward Angel Rodriguez primarily garnered his points off putbacks or dump-offs. Maybe freshman Myles Powell can create something for himself, but that remains a big question mark.
Marquette May Have the Big East’s Most Efficient Offense
With Halloween nearing, we thought it would be fun to answer a preseason burning question for each Big East team using a simple “Trick” or “Treat.” Part I of this season preview answers one key question for each of the teams picked in the bottom half of the preseason Big East Coaches’ Poll. We’ll tackle the remainder tomorrow.
St. John’s: Can Chris Mullin actually coach?
(Photo: Brad Penner, USA TODAY Sports)
Treat: Chris Mullin has not coached a single second of basketball at any level. That’s an indisputable fact unless there is some CYO coaching experience back in the day that we don’t know about. Mullin does, however, know the game of basketball and it will be that knowledge of the game blended with his longtime NBA experience (both as a player and executive) that will aid him on the Red Storm’s sideline. The former National Player of the Year (Wooden, UPI, USBWA – 1985) has also surrounded himself with an excellent staff that mixes college coaching with NBA player development experience. Despite having to basically bring in an entirely new roster this season, expect St. John’s to surprise some people with its effort and Mullin’s in-game coaching.
Seton Hall: Can Isaiah Whitehead lead the Pirates?
Trick: While Isaiah Whitehead is clearly the best player on Seton Hall, that doesn’t automatically mean he is the team’s leader. Last season was marred by locker room issues and a horrible 11 losses in the team’s final 14 games. Jared Sina left the program during the season and Sterling Gibbs — the player who presumably would be an ideal leader as an upperclassmen — decided to use his graduate transfer exemption and finish his collegiate career at UConn. Kevin Willard is putting all of his eggs in the Whitehead basket as he turns over the point guard duties to the Brooklyn sophomore. Whitehead spearheaded the recent decision to get the team off of social media this season — probably a good sign — but he’ll have to prove that he can lead the Pirates when things go sideways on the floor. Is he capable of that role?
The wait is over. The wait is finally over. For a month and a half now, college basketball has kept us intermittently engrossed. There have been glimpses of the beauty, sniffs of the joy. But beginning today, we get to dive in. We get the full dosage. We get to bask in all the glory. The beginning of conference play is important, not just because attention ratchets up and the momentous games come in droves, but because these first few weeks are full of realizations. This is when we start to get a true feel for individual teams. This is when preseason “underrated” statements are validated and gaudy records against weak competition are exposed. It’s too early to make sweeping judgments about conferences as wholes, but at last, the balance of power within those leagues will start to reveal itself. We’ll learn a lot these next few weeks. Or at the very least, we’ll think we have. And right now, that’s good enough.
Three for the Money
We’re actually going to bypass this section for now because there aren’t many single games that stand out this week. There are no clashes between conference heavyweights. In fact, there are only a couple of contests between two ranked teams. Instead, this week is about collections of games. It’s about the Big Ten tip-off event on Tuesday. It’s about the quintet of Big East games on Wednesday. It’s about the first full west coast Friday night in the Pac-12. And it’s about a jam-packed Saturday all across the nation.
A Juicy Big Ten Triple-header
Maryland Begins Its Opening Big Ten Season Today (USA Today Images)
The two worst teams in the league, Northwestern and Rutgers, actually get things started today at Noon, but we can pretend that game isn’t happening. The real curtain-raiser is the afternoon tripleheader on ESPN2. First, Iowa travels to Columbus to take on Ohio State in a rematch of last year’s upset of the then-No. 3 Buckeyes. Without Roy Devyn Marble in the lineup, though, the Hawkeyes aren’t the same team they were a year ago, more closely resembling the team that closed last season on a 1-7 slide. They lack consistent scoring punch in the backcourt, and that could mean trouble against an Ohio State team of which perimeter defense is a legitimate strength. KenPom only gives the Hawkeyes a 19 percent chance to enter Value City Arena and get a win.
