Bracket Prep: Albany, Hampton & UAB

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 14th, 2015

As we move through Championship Weekend, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Albany

Sam Rowley and Albany are going dancing for the third-straight year. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Sam Rowley and the Great Danes are going dancing for the third-straight year. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

America East Champion (24-8, 15-1)

  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #108/#132/#134
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +3.1
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #14 or #15

Strength: Albany led the America East in both adjusted offensive efficiency (110.2 AdjO) and time taken per offensive possession; which is to say, the Great Danes are slow but effective. They are a solid shooting team from all areas of the floor (36.5% 3FG/48.4% 2FG/76% FT) and do a decent job on the offensive glass, thanks in large part to brothers Sam and Michael Rowley (combined 12.0 RPG). Fellow Australian Peter Hooley (13.8 PPG) – who hit the clutch shot on Saturday – is back to being one of the team’s top offensive weapons after missing several games during conference play to be with his sick mother.

Weakness: The Great Danes often play some zone and like to pack in their defense, which helps them clean up misses (12th-best defensive rebounding rate in college hoops) but precludes them from taking away the three-point line; opponents are shooting nearly 37 percent from three against Albany and scoring around 38 percent of their points from behind the arc. Will Brown’s group surrendered 13 triples against Holy Cross in a 17-point loss back in December and could be overwhelmed by a good outside-shooting team next week.

Key Player: Sam Rowley (14 PPG, 7.7 RPG). The Aussie big man leads Albany in scoring and rebounding, but even that doesn’t quite illustrate his importance. Rowley uses over one quarter of his team’s possessions while on the floor (which is 82 percent of the time), either going to work down low, knocking down mid-range jumpers or passing out of the post. His ability to locate open shooters might be especially important against larger opponents that prevent interior scoring.

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Circle of March: Vol. XIII

Posted by rtmsf on March 14th, 2015

What a Friday of college basketball. Bookended by Davidson’s buzzer-beater in the Atlantic 10 to Oregon’s in the Pac-12, it was a wild and wooly day across 18 conference tournaments that resulted in another 27 removals from the Circle of March. With approximately 36 hours until the NCAA Tournament’s field of 68 is announced, we still have 96 eligible teams still bubbling along. Admittedly, there are a few names on the CoM that probably don’t stand much of a chance at an at-large bid, but the Selection Committee has surprised us all before so we’re erring on the side of caution for the next couple of days. Enjoy Championship Saturday — 15 more teams will join the 12 who are already automatically qualified in a college hoops extravaganza of action.

2015_CircleofMarch_V13

Eliminations (03.13.15)

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Circle of March: Vol. XII

Posted by rtmsf on March 13th, 2015

Thursday was a huge day for the Circle of March, as 47 more teams were shaved from its facade. Over the next three days we’ll cut another 56 from the remaining group of 124, but the bloodbath of the last two days is now behind us. There were no champions crowned yesterday nor will there be any today — for that, we await Saturday’s nonstop festival of 14 title bouts.

2015_CircleofMarch_V12Eliminations (03.12.15)

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Bracket Prep: Lafayette

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 12th, 2015

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Lafayette

Lafayette clinched its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2000. (Austin Drucker / Lafayette Student News)

Lafayette clinched its first NCAA Tournament bid since 2000. (Austin Drucker / Lafayette Student News)

  • Patriot League Champion (20-12, 9-9)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #127/#197/#175
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = -0.2
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #16

Strength: Lafayette is one of the best shooting teams in college basketball, ranking among the top-15 nationally in three-point percentage (41%), effective field goal percentage (55.8%) and free throw shooting (76.5%). In fact, only one other team boasts a better mark from long distance, thanks in large part to guys like Joey Ptasinski (46% 3FG) and Bryce Scott. The Leopards’ pick-and-pop game is lethal, and big man Dan Trist (17.6 PPG) along with stretch-four Seth Hinrichs, present serious matchup problems. Henrichs is especially difficult to handle because of his size (6’8”) and three-point shooting prowess (38% 3FG). Basically, Fran O’Hanlon’s team can – and does – light-up opponents from all over the floor, which its sparkling offensive efficiency mark reflects (110.5 AdjO).

Weakness: Despite its hyper-efficient offense, there’s a reason Lafayette lost 12 games this season and finished fourth in its conference’s regular season race: The Leopards simply are not good defensively. And that’s probably an understatement, because as it stands, only 14 teams in America sport worse efficiency numbers on that end of the floor. They do not take away the three-point line (surrendering 37.6% 3FG) and despite playing zone for a good chunk of the time, O’Hanlon’s bunch is easily gashed on the interior and does a poor job of cleaning up misses (315th in defensive rebounding percentage). Just two weeks ago, Colgate shot 66 percent from the field (and 21-of-24 from the stripe) on its way to an eye-popping 1.44 points per possession in beating the Leopards by 12. Even though Lafayette was slightly better in the Patriot League Tournament, the league champs will probably struggle on that end next week.

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Circle of March: Vol. XI

Posted by rtmsf on March 12th, 2015

The bloodbath has begun. We entered yesterday with 203 teams still eligible for the 2015 National Championship; we ended the night with 170. A single-day total of 33 teams fell off the Circle of March and we’re all better people for it. Today could be even worse with over 60 games involving a whole bunch of bad and mediocre teams playing in 18 different tournaments. We have to get to 68 over the next 80 hours somehow. On the automatic qualifier front, there was only one champion crowned last night — congratulations to the Patriot League’s Lafayette — but today and tomorrow are all about eliminations. Here’s today’s CoM.

2015_CircleofMarch_V11 Eliminations (03.11.15)

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Bracket Prep: Valparaiso, Robert Morris & North Dakota State

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 11th, 2015

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners.

Valparaiso

Valparaiso is heading back to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in five years. (horizonleague.com)

Valparaiso is heading back to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in five years. (horizonleague.com)

  • Horizon League Champion (28-5, 13-3)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #59/#66/#73
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +6.9
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #12

Strength: The Crusaders are an excellent defensive unit equipped with one of the best interior defenders at the mid-major level in 6’10” center Vashil Fernandez; the senior led the Horizon League in blocks per game (2.9 BPG) and boasts the sixth-best block percentage in college hoops. His ability to protect the rim – along with good complementary size around him – enables Valparaiso to prevent quality looks (or often any looks) on the inside. Bryce Drew’s group held Green Bay to just 36.8 percent shooting from inside the arc and 0.75 PPP on Tuesday night, their 44 points the lowest Horizon League championship total since Butler limited Milwaukee to the same mark in 2011. Valparaiso is also a very good rebounding team, with its offensive and defensive rebounding percentages ranking among the top 50 in America.

Weakness: Valpo suffered the highest turnover rate in the Horizon League this season and can be streaky offensively. On top of that, freshman guard Tevonn Walker – the team’s third-leading scorer (10.5 PPG) – was injured in the conference semifinals and may not be healthy in time for next week’s NCAA Tournament opener. Defensively, the Crusaders are less dominant when Fernandez is not on the floor, which – considering he only plays 24. 7 minutes per game – means there are periodic stretches of vulnerability.

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Circle of March: Vol. X

Posted by rtmsf on March 11th, 2015

Last night was the relative calm before the storm. We crowned four more league champions but only seven names fell off of the Circle of March. Today, on the other hand, there will be only one champion (Patriot League) but we will remove as many as 33 more names from the CoM in a bloodbath of win-or-go-home basketball. Those four automatic qualifiers — Gonzaga (WCC); North Dakota State (Summit); Robert Morris (NEC); Valparaiso (Horizon) — mean that over a third (11) of the auto-bids to the NCAA Tournament have already been logged. After tonight we won’t get another one until Super Saturday, when a whopping 14 champs will be crowned, followed by five more on Sunday. There are now 203 eligible teams remaining on the Circle of March.

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Eliminations (03.10.15)

  • Bethune-Cookman
  • Georgia Tech
  • Grambling State
  • North Carolina A&T
  • Saint Francis (NY)
  • South Dakota State
  • Wake Forest
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Bracket Prep: Wofford, Northeastern & Manhattan

Posted by Tommy Lemoine on March 10th, 2015

As we move through Championship Week, we’ll continue to bring you short reviews of each of the automatic qualifiers to help you fill out your bracket next week. Here’s what you need to know about the most recent bid winners

Wofford

Wofford will be a scary #12-seed next week if the matchup is right. (AP Photo/Adam Jennings)

Wofford will be a scary #12-seed next week if the matchup is right. (AP Photo/Adam Jennings)

  • Southern Conference Champion (28-6, 16-2)
  • RPI/Pomeroy/Sagarin = #48/#90/#86
  • Adjusted Scoring Margin = +5.0
  • Likely NCAA Seed: #12

Strength: Control is the name of the game for Wofford, on both sides of the ball. Offensively, the Terriers like to slow things down (19.1 seconds per possession) and look for the best shot, which often winds up in the hands of conference Player of the Year Karl Cochran; the guard takes more than one-third of his team’s shots when he is on the floor. The SoCon champs also do a great job of taking care of the ball, coughing it up just four times in their 55-54 upset over North Carolina State in December. Still, as steady as its offense can be, Wofford’s real bread and butter is on the defensive end where it holds opponents to just over 0.97 points per possession. The Terriers tend not to gamble in the full-court (in line with that whole ‘control’ idea), but they do like making life difficult on the perimeter – reflected in their 30.8 percent three-point defense (26th-best mark in college hoops).

Weakness: Wofford severely lacks size – ranking 329th nationally in effective height – and it shows against much bigger opponents. In its season opener against Stanford, the Terriers were single-handedly beaten by 6’11” big man Stefan Nastic, who scored 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting. It was a similar story in Cameron Indoor Stadium, where Duke’s Jahlil Okafor shot 11-of-14 and scored 24 points. Forwards Lee Skinner and C.J. Neumann are both good players, but their lack of height (6’6” and 6’7”, respectively) could become a liability against a much larger NCAA Tournament opponent.

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Circle of March: Vol. IX

Posted by rtmsf on March 10th, 2015

Three more leagues crowned their champions last night, as Manhattan (MAAC), Northeastern (CAA) and Wofford (Big South) punched their respective tickets to the Big Dance. The Circle of March dropped 12 more teams from its ranks last night, leaving us with 210 eligibles still alive and a whole slew to come over the next six days. There will be three more championships completed this evening, as the NEC, Summit League and WCC finish off their tournaments before most of the big boys really get going on Wednesday.

2015_CircleofMarch_V9

Eliminations (03.09.15)

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Circle of March: Vol. VIII

Posted by rtmsf on March 9th, 2015

With seven days left until the Field of 68 is announced, the Circle of March continues to shed contenders. Three more automatic qualifiers were anointed on Sunday — Coastal Carolina, North Florida and Northern Iowa are going Dancing — but 15 other schools will have to wait until next year. The next couple of days will be light in terms of eliminations, but we’ll be going from today’s 222 eligible teams to a third of that in really short order. Tonight the CAA, MAAC and SoCon will decide their champions. Enjoy the ride!

2015_CircleofMarch_V8

Eliminations (03.08.15)

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