It’s been floated around the league that California‘s Ivan Rabb could contend for the National Player of the Year award (more on that and other Pac-12 prognostications later). From what we saw last season, however, the Bay Area big man is wildly efficient and offensively underutilized. To quantify: 120.0 offensive rating; 62 percent inside the arc; top-100 (nationally) eFG% and true shooting percentage. From a utilization standpoint, Rabb played 70 percent of the available minutes (a bit above average for most big men) with a very pedestrian 20 percent usage rate during his time on the floor. His lack of involvement with the offense last season was at times heartbreaking. Meanwhile, teammates Tyrone Wallace and Jaylen Brown hovered around the herculean usage mark. For context against Rabb’s 70/20 minutes/usage ratio, Wallace and Brown were 68/32 and 65/28, respectively. Seriously, the two Bears finished first and second in Pac-12 usage, respectively, one of just three pairs of teammates to lead a conference in such. Naturally this becomes a numbers game — Rabb will get more touches and a corresponding increase in usage, and his scoring efficiency suggests that he will thrive when he gets that opportunity. Consequently, the talk of a National Player of the Year effort.

Ivan Rabb for Player of the Year? Only if his teammates help him. (Pac-12 Networks)

And yet two thoughts immediately come to mind: 1) Cuonzo Martin knows how to milk his stars for all they’re worth and he isn’t afraid to give the ball to those individuals. In which case, Rabb could get all of the touches for seemingly every minute he’s on the floor (something akin to Brown’s one-and-done experience); or 2) Martin’s strength is on the defensive end and he won’t necessarily optimize the offensive end. This dichotomous thinking is the fodder to Cal’s burning hot fire question. If we look at Martin’s teams historically, they’ve generally followed the pattern of riding two horses to their best success. Last year it was Brown and Wallace (at not particularly high efficiency). During his 2014 Tennessee campaign (24-13, Sweet Sixteen appearance), it was Jordan McRae and Jarnell Stokes (28.9% and 25.9% usage rates, respectively) yet at very efficient numbers (each greater than 115.0 offensive ratings). At Missouri State in 2011 (26-9), it was Kyle Weems (25.2%) and Will Creekmore (25.7%) who logged greater than 110.0 offensive ratings. All of which leads us to a third (perhaps fourth) question: Can Jabari Bird be that second guy? He’s played his entire California career somewhat in the shadows after arriving to considerable hype. Gone are Wallace and Brown, but so too is sharpshooter Jordan Mathews, who chose to grad-bolt for Gonzaga. This ultimately feels like a Bears’ roster that is thin on high-major bodies and talent — two critical pieces not only to earning a teammate the highest individual hardware, but also for making another NCAA Tournament. Consider the last four NPOYs:

• 2016 – Buddy Hield, Oklahoma – #2 seed
• 2015 – Frank Kaminski, Wisconsin – #1 seed
• 2014 – Doug McDermott, Creighton – #3 seed
• 2013 – Trey Burke, Michigan – #2 seed

Does Rabb have the talent to be an NPOY? Absolutely. Does he have the teammates? It’s going to take more than just a strong senior year out of Jabari Bird. Which is a long-winded and politically correct way of saying: No.

Pac-12 Media Day, the annual effusing of excitement, promise and not caring for the media poll, was held on Friday at the conference’s network headquarters in San Francisco. There were no on-stage fireworks (there rarely are) but Allonzo Trier was replaced by Kadeem Allen as Arizona’s player representative the night before things got started. Sean Miller would not comment. There was Larry Scott’s now annual promotion of all things Pac-12 + China as well as no update on a DirecTV deal. Following each player/coach stage appearance, and wrapping the day up, was the conference’s top official, Bobby Dibler. Did you know that a Pac-12 referee (or rather a Western Officiating Consortium official) was a Naismith Men’s Basketball College Official of the Year? Quite an honor and something not held by a west coast official since 2011 or 2012 (according to Dibler). All-in-all, it was a reminder that basketball season is upon us, and that to this point, we’ve had nothing but our own opinions and perhaps some “insider” knowledge, to evaluate, predict, and feel about our favorite teams. If you’re a stat nerd, we don’t even have KenPom’s updated ratings (ed. note: KenPom released his ratings Sunday) or a Pac-12 preview from Hanner and Winn over at SI. But Media Day finally gave us some knowledge straight from the proverbial horse’s mouth! Let’s dive into some of the key quotes to come out of each team’s address:

As the Pac-12 gets ready for the new season, so does commissioner Larry Scott, who faced some of the same questions at Media Day that has been a hot topic league-wide. (U.S. Presswire)

Washington State, Ernie Kent and Josh Hawkinson

“If there was ever a time that a team needed a summer tournament, it was us, an opportunity to go overseas.”

This was Ernie Kent’s opening line and I’d have to agree. The benefit of these trips was expressed many times over throughout the day but when you consider it’s Year 3 at Wazzu and the Cougars went 1-17 in conference last year – yeah – they could use the extra practice. The Cougs do have some seniors, experienced big men like Josh Hawkinson and Conor Clifford, but they are seniors who have won just 11 conference games in their three previous efforts. It could be another long one in Pullman. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Friday night, Arizona freshman Rawle Alkins set his coach on the block, handed him a basketball, asked him to adjust it just so, then leapt over Sean Miller for the dunk. That is how the 2017-18 Pac-12 basketball season begins. Not with letters to fan bases, sixth years of eligibility, early entries, foreign tours, or new hires — which isn’t necessarily to say that the Pac-12 hinges on Arizona’s efforts. By most accounts this is the Ducks’ conference to lose. But following a mostly disappointing end to the 2016 campaign (a really ugly performance in the Dance outside of the aforementioned Ducks, who themselves were bounced in embarrassing fashion), the imagery of fresh blood leaping over his historically serious coach in a fan-, if not recruit driven-, event, felt like the arrival of the season. Of course, if you haven’t watched it, here it is.

Once again, Sean Miller and crew are expected to be right in the mix of things. (Ralph Freso/Getty Images)

The teams have been at for a couple weeks now, getting NCAA allotted hours and gym sessions since 42 days before their first game. Heck, your team might have even received a 2017 commitment in the past couple weeks. As Nike has slogan-ed, [program] basketball never stops. But at a certain point it most certainly begins. And that time is coming in hot. So while our teams practice, so must we, right? Consider this post our first practice, the proverbial Wooden sock drill. This post isn’t necessarily to preview what’s coming but to tease out – not unlike an open practice – forthcoming content, features, games, players, and so on. To help you prepare for the 2016-17 Pac-12 basketball experience. Because it’s coming. November 11 will be here soon and while it’s perhaps not the opening day romanticized in prose (that’s left to baseball), we’ve put together some Pac-12 basketball essentials. Here’s the warm-up, before we really hit the wind sprints with team-by-team previews, dives into conference newcomers and the questions burning up West Coast, high-major basketball. Read the rest of this entry »

Your favorite Pac-12 school is seeded right about where it should be. The Conference of Champions got what it deserved, which was thorough representation in the NCAA Tournament, decent regionalization, and Sir Charles’ annual homerism. Consider that seven bids is historic for this conference and there really isn’t much to be bugged about here. That’s an accomplishment. Consider further that the torchbearer is neither Arizona nor (definitively) UCLA and it’s a considerable accomplishment. Helluva 2016, Pac. But it’s not over yet (I unfortunately don’t think we’re very far from the end, however) and we’ve got a bracket to digest. Let’s walk through the Pac’s seeding and tourney prospects:

#1 Oregon, West Region: Don’t let Dana Altman’s ho-hum personality and deflection of his team’s success fool you: The guy knows what he’s doing. On multiple occasions to this point he’s noted that he hasn’t been in this #1 seed scenario before. You know what he has been to? The NCAA Tournament. He’s also done some winning in it, and while this is the highest seed he’s ever attained, he has a basketball team with a fantastic draw. And it’s not the matchups that matter as much when you see the way Oregon is playing right now. Any of Elgin Cook (won it), Dillon Brooks, or Tyler Dorsey could have been awarded the Pac-12 tournament MOP and you would have agreed. The scoring threat of Dorsey is probably what sets them apart as we head into the most guard-critical time of the season. If forced to look at their possible matchups, however, do you expect a fast paced Saint Joseph’s to make the Ducks uncomfortable? Conversely – and naturally, because this is the NCAA Tournament – Cincinnati offers the stark contrast in style: slower and great defensively. I’d ask how that worked out for Utah. More broadly than the first weekend, Oregon and Baylor remains a fun matchup and any possible NCAA opportunity to play/beat Duke is welcomed (something Oregon would be very poised to do). Ultimately I think Oklahoma offers the greatest threat to eliminating the Ducks. Oregon finished ninth in 3FG% defense in the Pac and ranks 264th nationally. The Sooners? Making a casual 43 percent of its threes on the season. Of course both teams would have to get there for any shots to be taken and it is worth noting that the Ducks have the lowest KenPom rating of any of the top seeds and three of the twos.

Dillon Brooks and the Ducks are heading to the NCAA Tournament as a #1 seed. (Photo: Cole Elsasser/Emerald)

#3 Utah, Midwest Region: I like this draw for Utah. Their first weekend pod seems to be rightfully challenging but by no means insurmountable (they are the #3 seed afterall). Fresno State is a nice story but it should prove to be a relatively easy First Round opponent. They rate 105th in KenPom and Utah has lost just two KenPom 100+ games the last two seasons. I’ll take the Utes. Of course looming large here is Michigan State. They’re really good and will be in my Final Four. So let’s back up to a possible Utah-Gonzaga game. This would be a really nice matchup, again, for the Utes. Beyond the fact that Gonzaga just isn’t that great this year, I  like the number of long bodies they can throw at Kyle Wiltjer and  think Sabonis-Poeltl would be fantastic foreign-born TV. Utah would ultimately have the advantage at the guard spot where the Zags really, really struggle. And yes, I’ll admit that I’ve completely dismissed Seton Hall which is very irresponsible considering they’ve beaten Xavier twice and Villanova once in the last three weeks. Utah, one could argue, has struggled with scoring guards (see: Trier, Allonzo; Dorsey, Tyler; Jacobs, Julian) of which Seton Hall has one of the best in Isaiah Whitehead.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a championship game. One for all the marbles and the last nationally relevant game of the day. All eyes, if they’re not asleep, will be on Vegas. Because at 8:00 PM the Arizona Wildcats will play the Oregon Ducks for the third time this season. We don’t necessarily need a preview. As I noted in yesterdays historical recap of UCLA and Arizona, the scouting reports are out the window. I mean, Isaac Hamilton scored 36 points in a game. How can you prepare for March basketball? Undoubtedly you saw this:

But that’s the best part. It is March basketball and that means – more than any of the months prior – these games mean things. In tonight’s case it could mean a #1 seed for the Wildcats. Duke and Virginia both fell in the ACC semifinals, opening the door for Arizona to earn one of the big dance’s top four billings. It would be the second consecutive #1 seed for the ‘Cats but the important part would be their status in the West. That part they seemed to have locked up already. But think about this: Arizona and Wisconsin could potentially both be 31-3 with outright conference regular season and tournament championships and still be #2 seeds. If you need evidence of this year’s Dance being top heavy, there it is. Furthermore it’s Arizona’s fourth attempt at winning this thing in the last five years. Sean Miller told us to not even bother asking about what that feels like.

For Oregon, the Ducks too are playing for seeding. Now locked into the Dance, could they elevate themselves onto the #5 line? With each win their resume swells but that’s probably not the focus, right? This is a championship game. In noting that Arizona hasn’t won this thing, Dana Altman conversely has. The Ducks will be playing for their second title in three years. Clearly there are things at stake for each of these programs independent of their opponent, but this matchup itself offers intrigue beyond just the exciting hyperbole of March basketball. It’s really got something for everyone.

Read the rest of this entry »

We probably don’t need a history lesson. You know as well as I do that Arizona and UCLA have been pretty good basketball programs in the same conference for a long while now. But did you know that Arizona is just 1-5 against the Bruins in the conference tournament since it was re-conceived in 2002? If you’re searching for a word, it’s probably ‘owned’ or something of that ilk. And because recent history most immediately dictates our excitement, we need look no further than 2013 and 2014. The former was the infamous “He Touched the Ball” game. The aftermath of that game sent shock waves throughout the conference as officiating ‘scandals’ have a tendency to do. But then we were delighted to the rematch — the game we deserved — because these are the cornerstones of Pac-12 basketball. They’d both rolled into the game (together won the quarters and semis by a net 96 points) with heads of steam for March. The game was a wonderful. UCLA won – remember they own Arizona in this tournament – and it was fitting they played because the Pac-12’s imbalance doesn’t guarantee two of these games.

Two of the better coaches in the country go at in Las Vegas tonight. (AP)

I’m not a big believer in the ways of the universe or reading too far into signs (let’s be serious, I probably am, I scour KenPom and hoop-math for nuanced data patterns like the fact that Bryce Alford shoots an insanely low percentage of assisted threes – 58.7 percent – which is like whaaaat?? But maybe, because we’re being treated to this matchup for the third time in nearly as many unbalanced seasons, we need to guarantee ourselves this matchup? Alas, that’s a gripe not suited for March. Because March is our game’s biggest stage and we want to see its biggest competitors. We want competition at its finest and deepest roots. We want Arizona-UCLA. So in 2015, what’s that look like? Read the rest of this entry »

When the Pac-12 announced that the Oregon basketball program possessed both the conference’s Player and Coach of the Year, there was some surprise. Each had performed valiantly in his role this year, earning the second seed in the Pac-12 Tournament and exceeding expectations set months before a single shot was taken or play was called. Because when it came time to do those things, Joseph Young made lots and Dana Altman called the right ones. For their efforts, the coaches of the Pac-12 recognized them. It was the most recognition the program had received in months.

Will added expectations curtail Joseph Young and Oregon? (USA TODAY Sports)

You see, Oregon has been under the radar since they went off the radar, dismissing several key players from what had projected as a big season. You know this. But what we don’t really know is what Oregon looks like with expectations. How the neons shine in the spotlight. The Ducks have been fitted for their targets and we’re not really sure how well they’ll fit. They’ve won nine of 10 games since starting conference play a pedestrian 4-4. During that streak, they’re scoring 1.11 points per possession (good) and yielding 1.02 (average). Offensively this is slightly better than their season average (1.09), but defensively it’s on par. The streak, as it were, seems to be nothing beyond the ordinary. Having something expected of this group is. Read the rest of this entry »