Basketball, as we’ve discussed in previous Pac-5s, is a simple game. Score more than your opponent by playing better offense, defense or some sort of hybrid. In looking at the most effective ways to achieve this outcome, defensively speaking, rim protection is high. Let’s keep our opponent away from the shots that are most commonly and easily made: the layup and dunk. This key facet to the game is often attributed to the effort of big men — the lurking paint protectors threatening to put shots into the bleachers. And by that logic, we might consider rim protection quantifiable by a team’s propensity to block shots. It’s not wrong. Blocking shots is a tried and true means to protecting the rim. It also looks cool. But it’s not a comprehensive measure of rim protection. There’s also a team’s — or individual’s — ability to limit dribble penetration, force long jumpers, limit transition offense and so forth. Defense is a team effort and therefore to note that Oregon has the nation’s top block rate (20%) doesn’t necessarily mean they do the best job of protecting the rim (also of note: it doesn’t hurt the Ducks’ ability to limit layups and dunks).

Defense is the name of the game for Oregon big man Chris Boucher, right. (AP Photo/Chris Pietsch)

In this week’s top-5, we’ll look at the Pac’s five best rim protecting teams. We’ll qualify this list by noting the five teams with the fewest total made shots at the rim. This does not take into account pace, unfortunately, which will dilute the total number of shot attempts against a defense. What I wanted to capture, however, was a team’s holistic approach to rim protection. By looking at the total number of made layups or dunks against those teams, we account for field goal defense and the propensity to limit overall shots (again, pace is a big component of this but also cannot be ignored as a strategy). A brief, contextualizing anecdote: Oregon owns the nation’s top block rate, yet teams still shoot 66 percent at the rim against them (fifth highest in the Pac-12) and allow the second highest percentage of shots at the rim. This perhaps suggests that Dana Altman’s team is content in allowing penetration to the rim, daring opponents to challenge Jordan Bell and Chris Boucher when they get there. The defensive risks then taken by Bell and Boucher could, perhaps, lead to drop off passes or putbacks, yielding a higher field goal percentage at the rim and consequently a slightly less effective rim defense. Here are the Pac-12’s five best rim protecting teams as measured by fewest layups and dunks allowed.

In effect, each team exacts a different strategy to protect its rim. Be it through the collective or with a particularly lengthy big man, it remains a critical facet of the game.

Virginia basketball doubles the post. This is less opinion than fact. Tony Bennett’s teams double the post and they double it effectively. In using Internet search devices you’ll discover a fifty-two-second video compilation of Virginia post-doubles when searching the terms, “VIRGINIA BASKETBALL DOUBLES POST.” And then another video with three minutes of post-doubles. Core to the pack-line defense is denying the paint, to ensure help is always available. In sending the immediate double-team, these tenets are fulfilled: help arrives immediately, and the post – and player – is denied.

Ivan Rabb Was Often Swarmed by Cavaliers (USA Today Images)

The ultimate point I’m beleaguering here is that California center Ivan Rabb didn’t touch the ball for the final four minutes in last week’s 56-52 loss to Virginia. Rabb, the second-highest vote-getter in Preseason All-America voting, took only four shots on the evening and did not touch the ball for the final four minutes of a crucial non-conference home game. OK, to be fair, he did get a touch with 18 seconds remaining. It was with his back turned 24 feet away from the basket and resulted in an immediate handoff to teammate Jabari Bird (and zero threat to score). Ignoring that touch fits this final four-minute narrative but also demonstrates two key points: 1) Bennett is indeed the best defensive coach in America; 2) Cal is ineffectively using its greatest asset.

Let’s expand on the latter because to this point we’ve effused on the former. Bennett’s teams have never finished outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency and have been among the top 25 in nine of his 11 head coaching seasons. That point is clear. So, back to Rabb. If Virginia denies the post and Rabb is one of the nation’s best post players, what’s a Berkeley to do? First of all, one of the things that makes Rabb special is his pronounced versatility. He can score from all over the floor, create on his own and draw fouls. To quantify: he shoots 84 percent at the rim and 41 percent in the mid-range; only half of his shots are assisted; and he owns the 45th best free throw rate in America. Furthermore, his 12 percent assist rate suggests that, while he won’t soon rival Lonzo Ball in his passing capabilities, Rabb will find the open man (for context, that’s roughly the fifth-highest assist rate among Pac-12 bigs). So what was Cuonzo Martin‘s team trying to do at the end of a winnable game against a top 10 team? Well here’s a detailed look at Rabb’s 34 touches on the evening (including the last second, back-to-the basket, moment):

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The game is evolving away from the basket and toward the three-point line. That’s what Daryl Morey and James Harden would have you believe. The Golden State Warriors would have you think the same. We don’t need advanced metrics to understand that 3>2. Especially if you can make it, the three-pointer is the most valuable in the sport. This distance trend isn’t reserved for just the pros. The collegiate three-ball is being shot at a higher clip than ever before. A 36 percent share of all shots are from distance. Like we explored last week, teams make an effort to help their best shooters make that shot. But what if that’s not your strongest suit?

Considering his skill set, it’s not a huge surprise Thomas Welsh tops this list. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

What if you’re better off the bounce or closer to the basket? What if, philosophically, your team isn’t a three-point shooting team? This week we want to consider the Pac-12’s best mid-range players. It isn’t a lost art! It’s just a less appreciated and certainly a less sexy shot. It’s neither three points nor a dunk. Like middle management, the mid-range jumper isn’t glamorous, but it is effective. So who’s the most effective at it in the Pac this season? Here are the Pac-12’s five leading mid-range shooters (quantified by total number of makes):

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An open three-pointer is a simpler three-pointer. There are a few ways someone can get open for basketball’s highest value shot: dribbling by yourself; letting someone else attract the defense; or running off of screens set by teammates. These options (and I’ve indubitably missed some) are listed in order of increasing participation. Which is to say, scenario one takes just one player; scenario two requires a pair; and scenario three needs — at a minimum — three. As we learned in kindergarten, sharing is caring and there is no “I” in team. Greater involvement often lends itself to greater success. These elementary insights may not be the core reason you visit RTC’s Pac-12 microsite, but if the objective of the sport is to optimize shot-making or shot-stopping, then perhaps it’s a worthwhile exploration. Because we’d like to know who is best suited to make this team-built open shot? In this week’s segment of the Weekly Pac-5, we’ll discover and list the best spot-up shooters in the Pac-12.

Isaac Hamilton is the best long-range shooter in the Pac-12. (photo by Don Liebig)

These are the players, loosely defined, whose teams are going to make an effort to get them open. Through planning and screening, it’s a worthwhile endeavor to get these dudes open from distance. We’ll quantify it by the number of assisted threes made, as this suggests an open, quality shot in which one player has recognized the other’s advantageous, shot-making position. If assisted, the assumption is that our shooter has set his feet and evaded the defense with some assistance of his teammates. He is not running amok, wildly crossing over, stepping back or doing all of the moves you loathe as a fan (and cherish as a fan of Steph Curry). Consider that Klay Thompson scored 60 points on 20 assisted baskets (he made 21 field goals in total) earlier this week. For your further consideration and long-term focus, Pac-12 point guards have been outstanding thus far. Lonzo Ball’s success is well-documented, as is Markelle Fultz’s, but there are five other players averaging more than four assists per game. Nice distribution! Read the rest of this entry »

You look around Maples Pavilion and you see empty rows of seats. If you look hard enough, I’m sure you could even find columns of seats right up to the not-all-that-high Maples ceiling. There’s empty booster level seating and you can hear conversations, noises perhaps unfamiliar to a more traditional college basketball environment. Just Wednesday night, following a loss inside Indiana’s Assembly Hall, North Carolina head coach Roy Williams lamented, “I’d like to play in front of a crowd like that in the Smith Center every night other than the frickin’ Duke game.” Indeed, what sets college basketball apart – and I suppose all college sports for that matter – is its atmosphere (not the frickin’ Duke game). The skill of professionals cannot be matched. Their stars are brighter and shots more true. Their arenas, however? Bigger but not always better. Or at least not louder. It is not the same. Stanford athletics, however, are a little different. It is not always an event. Sure there are scheduled contests with officials and media, hype men and even knockout at halftime. The requisite production remains. But it’s not destination sport. Their top-tier football program does not demand overflow attendance. And while the basketball program was once there and the floors would shake, they’ve also only been to one NCAA Tournament in the past eight seasons. It’s amazing what an NCAA Tournament appearance can do to an arena.

Stanford’s Glory Days Seem Like a Bygone Era (USA Today Images)

Following in the steps of a Hall of Famer is never easy. Trent Johnson escaped the shadow by progressively chasing lesser jobs (Stanford > LSU > TCU), while Johnny Dawkins sternly and rarely budged off of 18-wins. In either case, one of two critical components used in standard assessments of a program were missing: winning or charm. While the former speaks for itself and often excuses or masks a lack of the latter, wins are hard to come by. On charm, and particularly early in a coaching tenure, this can be used to excuse winning, a smile and a pep rally to lament the outgoing regime’s recruiting. Consider Ernie Kent walking door-to-door in Pullman or anything Bruce Pearl ever does. In either case (winning or charming), a coach and program are trying to set itself up for success on the recruiting trail and in the pocketbook. The recipe being some nonlinear combination of good players + wins + excitement + attendance. That’s how we generally evaluate a program.

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It’s perhaps strange to consider Chimezie Metu the hottest topic out of the Galen Center and perhaps I’m wrong on this one. Such is the case with preseason prognosticating. But consider that the Trojans – a team that attended the 2016 Dance – have many of the right pieces already in place and developed to cover for the departures of Julian Jacobs and Nikola Jovanovic. I find Metu perhaps the most intriguing prospect in the Pac-12. Jacobs was a first team conference performer last year in leading the conference in assists. And while I don’t love to play the game of “how to replace a singular talent,” Elijah Stewart has long felt poised to become an elite scorer while Louisville transfer Shaqquan Arron could very well have that guard productivity covered (after all, he was a top-30 recruit in 2014). The frontcourt is well-positioned to also see a sophomore bump out of Benny Boatright, a stretch four who shot a cool 37 percent from beyond the arc while posting competitive-but-not-great rebounding numbers (get in there big fella!). Losing Jovanovic to the Draft, therefore, left the Trojans with their biggest gap at the biggest position. Enter: Metu.

Chimezie Metu Returns to Show What He Can Do at USC. (Shotgun Spratling/uscfootball.com)

He’s a fantastic athlete who has shown bursts of remarkable ability. As freshmen go, of course, they were indeed just bursts. He could play the role of big body this season, filling space and continuing those flashes or dominant presence, controlling the paint and altering anything in the lane. If it’s the former (body), I still like these Trojans as a top-of-the-league competitive and in the dogfight for an NCAA bid (two straight). If it’s the latter, however, with Metu as a nightly double-double threat and protecting the rim like he’s demonstrated (seriously, 8.2 percent block rate… but 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes), then the Trojans begin to feel like an NCAA lock with a shot at a top-three finish. Read the rest of this entry »

It was surprising to learn that The Ringer’s first-ever college basketball piece (or at least Mark Titus’ first college hoops piece) was about Lorenzo Romar and the Washington basketball program. It’s of course not totally strange to have Washington hoops in national news during off-cycle reporting (see: The Sixth Man), but when you consider Washington hasn’t made an NCAA Tournament since 2012, it’s a little different that a brand new media outlet would introduce itself by questioning the employment of a Pacific Northwestern basketball coach. And while I know that we’re Pac-12 homers, this one felt a little strange yet enjoyable. Alas, this isn’t a media critique column — it’s an exploration of the Huskies, a team that it says here is not playing for its coach’s job. No, the Huskies are instead playing for their first NCAA Tournament appearance in four years. With a fresh injection of energy and life into the Seattle-based program, fans joined the Dawg Pound as Washington exhibited a bump in attendance for the first time in three years. And while the numbers (attendance) are still rather paltry (an average jump of about 400 bodies), it trended up. We like upward trends and particularly ones that can be righted after 14 seasons.

Once again, this might be the make-or-break year for Lorenzo Romar. Or is it? (The Seattle Times)

So if Washington isn’t playing explicitly for its coach’s job and we’re not asking the question if they are, what questions can we ask? Well…

• Is freshman Markelle Fultz the best player in the Pac-12? Some have predicted he will be the Pac-12 Player of the Year, and still others have noted him as the first pick in the 2017 NBA Draft. CBSSports.com, for what it’s worth, says he’s the second best college basketball player out there.
• Will the Huskies average less time per possession this year? Last year Washington logged an outrageously swift possession time of 13.6 seconds, second in the nation, and the third quickest offensive possession length since KenPom began tracking the number in 2010.

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Replacing Jakob Poeltl, of course, is the biggest challenge facing Utah, but such would be the case for any team that loses a conference Player of the Year. We can’t dwell on that. What we can turn our attention to is the team’s high roster turnover and that the Utes lost six scholarship players following a second place Pac-12 finish. That’s a lot even in today’s transfer-heavy climate. Of course, the roster turnover is mixed with the natural losses of Brandon Taylor and Jordan Loveridge – two veterans who were with the program throughout its recent return to relevance. As a result, head coach Larry Krystkowiak finds himself with one of the more unique coaching challenges in the conference this season.

Larry Krystkowiak has built a big-time program in Utah. (Hugh Carey, Deseret News)

It’s important to note that he hasn’t left himself with absolutely nothing. The Utes have won more than 21 games in each of the last three years — to be clear, this is a program and not just a team. Lorenzo Bonam and Kyle Kuzma are two fine Pac-12 returnees, the latter of which CBSSports.com‘s Matt Norlander thinks could be an NBA Draft pick (scroll to the Utes at #73). Those veterans (the only ones left?) will be supplemented by a top-100 recruit in Jayce Johnson, who actually joined the Utes in the middle of last season. Considering that Johnson had half a year to compete in practice with Poeltl and Krystkowiak’s proven ability to develop bigs, it would be fair to place relatively high expectations on Johnson.

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There’s a building in downtown San Francisco that is sinking. It has about a 16-inch lean and there are already lawsuits upon lawsuits hunting for blame and accountability. Something must be done or this tower — in the heart of San Francisco’s SOMA district — is going down with everything else around it. The word is that this building was seemingly tossed together without much of a plan. To build something great, you’ve got to have a buttoned-up, dedicated plan. Is there a plan in place for basketball in Pullman? Because I really can’t figure the direction of Ernie Kent’s program. He’s sitting at what he calls the pivotal third year with just eight conference wins to his Washington State name (and only one of those came last year). The Cougars have what feels like a newer roster, introducing five freshmen and two transfers despite the presence of four experienced seniors. They’re definitely leaning but I won’t yet say sinking. This is 2016 college hoops, though, and roster turnover in the third year isn’t so much a barometer of program health as it is a reality. But as we saw significant third-year improvements from Andy Enfield at USC (NCAA Tournament), Tad Boyle at Colorado (NCAA Tournament), Larry Krystkowiak at Utah (23 wins), Dana Altman at Oregon (NCAA Tournament) and Wayne Tinkle at Oregon State (NCAA Tournament in year two), we’re left to wonder what the direction of Cougars basketball is right now?

Josh Hawkinson May Be The Pac-12’s Most Improved Player. (AP)

There’s only UP to go from Washington State’s one conference win last year, and the Cougars should exceed that total this season. I want to be optimistic! I would love to see Josh Hawkinson have a romanticize-able senior year. He’s had a fantastic two-year run and is the most lovable senior big man to come out of Pullman since Brock Motum. Have there really been that many since, though? His sophomore and junior campaigns went somewhat overlooked. He’s had a top-five defensive rebounding percentage in each of the last two seasons and at times can be unstoppable around the rim. Could he make a nice senior leap into Pac-12 superstardom?

Channeling further optimism, Connor Clifford had flashes of being a more-than-capable seven-footer last year; and I’m intrigued by the final season potential of Ike Iroegbu and Charles Callison. Unfortunately, romantic senior years aren’t plans. They’re wishful and happy thoughts that do not a basketball program make. What usually does, rather, is player development and youthful influxes (see the aforementioned early success of the other Pac-12 programs), plans that build things to not sink or fall. Of course, Kent introduces five new freshmen, presumably the future of the program. It isn’t a highly-touted group but it’s also nothing to completely dismiss, if for no other reason than Kent is a very positive speaker. Milan Acquaah is the highest-rated newcomer, a three-star point guard from Los Angeles. In future planning, Kent has secured two 2017 commitments in Davontae Coooper (center) and his high school teammate, Kwinton Hinson (guard). Perhaps that’s a nice start, but when Ernie cites year three as a critical one, it’s not a good look to be picked last again.

This is easily the most basic of any of our burning questions but it feels completely legitimate. UCLA finished 15-17 last season and we could stop right there to qualify the question. Steve Alford returns much of the roster that played selective defense last season and ultimately led the hand of its coach into a formal letter of apology. Sure, there might have been some injuries, but this is UCLA basketball – something fans have been squawking about since mid-to-late-Ben Howland – and as Steve Alford noted at Pac-12 Media Day, there are consequences in failing to uphold what it means to be a UCLA basketball player, coach or team. The nice thing about an offseason is that it allows you get healthy. The nicer thing about an offseason is it allows you to bring in new players. The nicest thing about an offseason is that your last season ends. The Bruins will welcome back their frontcourt depth with Gyorgy Goloman and Alex Olesinski being veteran returnees who will start the season (and hopefully finish it) healthy. They’ll also introduce Ike Anigbogu (hulking center) and TJ Leaf (skilled power forward) as freshmen. Of course, Thomas Welsh also returns his well-developed skill set to the starting center role.

Thomas Welch is UCLA’s top returning standout. Is he enough? (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

But as this is UCLA basketball and there’s much to like about Welsh’s offensive game, the Bruins’ question marks center around the defensive end. Does a team improve its defense with freshmen? Not usually. Furthermore, UCLA has spent the last few seasons masking their defensive flaws with an opportunistic zone that has been headed by some unique talents (if not bodies) in Kyle Anderson, Kevon Looney and Jonah Bolden (trying early departure from last year’s team). Each of these players was a lengthy forward with ball skills. This roster lacks that player. What this roster doesn’t lack is guards. Alford returns a veteran lot but it is also the same lot that didn’t play defense last year and a reminder of why the Bruins played zone defense. Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton are both very talented scorers, but will their senior campaigns lend itself to a defensive renaissance? Adding Lonzo Ball to the mix is something any coach would want to do but another talented passer and shooter isn’t necessarily what this team needs. Of course adding talent is never a bad thing, and to that extent the Bruins should absolutely be expected to improve (which, granted, is not hard to do from two games under .500).

What I see on this roster are improvements at positions that didn’t necessarily need improving. And while I can agree that the previous sentence is oxymoronic (when you’re sub-.500, you absolutely need to improve), I would prefer that this group show me why they’re a top 20 team in the preseason national polls. The depth chart over UCLA’s final five games last year (per KenPom) was Bryce Alford, Aaron Holiday, Isaac Hamilton, Jonah Bolden and Thomas Welsh. How much better can that group defend when you toss in some pups?