It’s All So Upsetting: 13 Projected Upsets With a Pac-12 Flare
Posted by Connor Pelton on November 5th, 2012There’s nothing this country loves more than an upset. That’s one of the main reasons the NCAA Tournament is so popular; which #14 seed will knock off a Top 10 team? Which #12 seed advances out of the first weekend? These games are close, thrilling, and at the end of a short two hours, America has a new favorite team. Of course, picking upsets is a whole separate entity in itself. We attempt to do that exercise here, with the only requirement being that the underdog is the equivalent of a #10 seed or lower, and the favorite is a #7 seed or better. Let’s get to it.
Pac-12 Underdogs over Non-Conference Favorites
Stanford over Missouri, November 22: Coming in at a close second to teams at home in rivalry games, solid underdogs playing at neutral sites make for a great chance of an upset. And there’s not a more neutral site than Paradise Island in the Bahamas. The Cardinal matches up well with the Tigers, as Chasson Randle and Aaron Bright can certainly hold their own with Michael Dixon, Jr., and Phil Pressey up top. The unknown will be how to play Connecticut transfer Alex Oriakhi, a four-five hybrid who can muscle his way to the hoop. Any time your first test of the year is against a lock for the NCAA Tournament there could be trouble, but expect Johnny Dawkins’ team to give Mizzou a game and have a chance to win it at the end.
Sophomore Point Guard’s Chasson Randle Play Will Be A Big Factor In Whether Or Not Stanford Can Upset Missouri (credit: Patrick McDermott)
USC over San Diego State, November 25: Just like Mountain West counterpart UNLV, SDSU could be headed for a #4 or #5 seed once March rolls around. But March is a long way off, and while Jamaal Franklin and Chase Tapley are All-Americans in the making, integrating highly touted Winston Shepard and Utah transfer JJ O’Brien into the six-man rotation poses a challenge. There is no more slow-moving, deliberate style of basketball at USC, but rather an athletic group of players (led by Jio Fontan and Aaron Fuller) who can score in bunches and keep up with a number of high-scoring teams. The Aztecs will rightly be on high alert for this in-state rivalry.
Washington State over Gonzaga, December 5: Home underdogs in rivalry games are perfect choices for these things, so let’s start off here. The Bulldogs will be just fine this season, but integrating centers Przemek Karnowski and Sam Dower into major minutes in order to replace Robert Sacre is going to take some time. Brock Motum can match up with small forward Elias Harris any day of the week, and Davonté Lacy should be able to score easily against a perimeter defense that struggled in 2011-12. The game comes before a two-game stretch in which the Bulldogs will face Illinois and Kansas State, so there’s a slight overlook possibility here as well. The Cougars will have already faced top-level competition in a previous game against Kansas, but there’s no doubt that this is the biggest game to the players on the non-conference slate.
California over UNLV, December 9: Sure, this is a talented Runnin’ Rebel squad, but you don’t just replace Oscar Bellfield, Chace Stanback, and Brice Massamba without any problems. Cal is looking for revenge after being embarrassed last year in Vegas, and with Justin Cobbs and Allen Crabbe, they have the scoring ability to do just that. However, the key to this one will be getting defensive pressure on Mike Moser down low, a task that will fall to Richard Solomon and David Kravish. The game comes in the middle of a brutal three-game stretch for Cal, coming after a trip to Wisconsin and preceding a home date against Creighton.
California over Creighton, December 15: Cal’s second appearance here comes immediately after the aforementioned UNLV game. It helps that I think this is a fairly overrated Creighton team, one that will struggle to balance the scoring attack with the loss of Antoine Young. There’s still enough talent down low to lead the Blue Jays to a Missouri Valley championship, but they are a slow bunch that will struggle to stop Cal’s offense on the road. Out of these five games, this one carries the best chance of an upset.
Non-Conference Underdogs over Pac-12 Favorites
New Mexico State over Oregon State, November 11: Even after losing their top four scorers, this was a deep Aggies team that made a late season run all the way to the Big Dance in 2011-12. If guys like Bandja Sy and Daniel Mullings can build on their strong finishes to last season, this is another deep and athletic team that can compete with Utah State for the WAC title. Craig Robinson and Oregon State have struggled with teams like this in the past; most recently Idaho, Utah Valley, and George Washington, so the Beavers need to be on high alert. Those were all athletic teams that could keep up with Oregon State, but the key was having a couple of sharpshooters to beat Oregon State’s zones. If NMSU comes out firing and hitting early on, watch out.
Dayton over Colorado, November 15: An underrated and dangerous Flyers team will give Colorado all they can handle in this one. Once again, the early afternoon start on a weekday, the site (Charleston, South Carolina), and first round of an early season tournament makes this a classic upset pick. Kevin Dillard has enough game on offense to compete with anyone in the country, but the Flyers are a bit of an unknown after that. The Buffaloes should be a team on the bubble once March rolls along, but on just the first full week of the season they’ll be struggling to get all of their young guns incorporated into an eight-man rotation.
Dillard’s Offensive Prowess Will Keep The Flyers In Games Against Power Conference Opponents (credit: Getty Images)
Georgetown over UCLA, November 19: Losing Jason Clark will hurt the Hoyas, but having one of the more underrated recruiting classes in the nation should lead them to their fourth straight NCAA trip. The fact that this is just a 225-mile trip for Georgetown, compared to the nearly 3,000-mile one that the Bruins will be making obviously puts UCLA at a disadvantage. But the key to this one will be whether or not Shabazz Muhammad is cleared in time to play by the NCAA. Without him, the Hoyas match up pretty well and definitely look good in this one.
Texas Tech over Arizona, December 1: This one may be a bit of a stretch, but weird things happen to Pac-12 teams in Lubbock. Josh Gray and Jordan Tolbert will provide a nice one-two punch at guard and forward, but after that the Red Raiders are lacking in talent. The Red Raiders will certainly be charged up for this one as it is their biggest non-conference game, but whether they’ll be readyis a completely different question. They shouldn’t have an answer for freshman center Kaleb Tarczewski, so if Arizona utilizes him the Wildcats should escape Lubbock with a win.
Northwestern over Stanford, December 21: This isn’t your typical Northwestern squad. Even with the loss of John Shurna, guys like Drew Crawford, Alex Olah, and Dave Sobolewski make the Wildcats a surprise pick to contend for the Big Ten title. We’ll get an indication if they’re up for that before conference play even starts with this match-up of elite academic institutions. I think Bill Carmody catches the Cardinal sleeping heading into Christmas break and pulls the upset.
Conference Play: Pac-12 Underdogs over Pac-12 Favorites
California over UCLA, February 14: It could very well be a Valentine’s Day massacre for UCLA when they venture into Haas Pavilion for this one. However, if Cal is to keep up with the Bruins, they’ll need to take advantage of the young Bruins frontcourt. That task falls not only on the shoulders of Solomon and Kravish, but deeper down the bench to Bak Bak, Kalieb Rodriguez, and Kahlil Johnson.
Colorado over Arizona, February 14: Valentine’s Day is sure setting up to be a terrific night of Pac-12 hoops, one where a couple of upsets could change the outlook on the Pac-12 standings drastically. The Buffaloes will try to do their part when Arizona pays a visit to one of the toughest arenas in the nation, the Coors Event Center. The combination of Wesley Gordon, André Roberson, and Spencer Dinwiddie will have the Buffs competing night in and night out in Pac-12 play, and that won’t change against the Cats. Sean Miller will need big production from his experienced post players to stave off an upset bid.
Normally Arizona Would Be Able to Have Its Way With Colorado, But When The C-Unit Involved, Funny Things Can Happen (credit: Kathryn Scott Osler)
Oregon over Stanford, February 23: The losses of Olu Ashaolu, Garrett Sim, and Devoe Joseph will be too much to overcome to compete for an NCAA at-large bid in 2012-13, but the Ducks could certainly play spoiler to Stanford’s dancing hopes in this late February meeting. The Ducks match up well against Stanford, something that their fans won’t get to say often this season. Randle will probably go off as usual, but E.J. Singler and Dominic Artis should be able to keep Rosco Allen and Aaron Bright in check.
I'm from Portland. College basketball and football is life.
