Michigan is just 11 games into the season but this is already turning out to be John Beilein’s magnum opus. It was reasonable to expect that the Wolverines would take a step back from last season’s national runner-up performance, but Michigan — fueled by an elite defense (third nationally, per KenPom) — has just continued chugging along. A team that lost three starters has already locked up a trio of top-15 offenses (Villanova, North Carolina and Purdue), and when necessary, has also shown that it can dictate tempo. In the Wolverines’ ACC/Big Ten Challenge win over the Tar Heels last month, Michigan struggled with the pace of the game early until settling down and holding the Heels to just 46 points over the final 33 minutes.

Some of Michigan’s defensive success is attributable to how the Wolverines defend ball screens. Beilein teaches his players to “surf” ball screens, where the guard gets over the screen while the big man forces the ball-handler to move sideways or retreat. But the most vital part of any ball-screen defense comes with off-ball rotations, and the Wolverines are particularly adept at rotating and guarding in mismatches. Long and athletic players like Ignas Brazdeikis, Charles Matthews and Jordan Poole give Beilein great defensive versatility: all three can guard the wing, and Matthews and Brazdeikis in particular can defend the post too. Jon Teske has also developed into a defensive force; the anchor in the post has already logged four games this season in which he has recorded three or more blocks.

As full conference play nears, it is becoming increasingly clear what the strengths and weaknesses are among the top teams in college basketball. That was certainly the case Saturday night in Chapel Hill when #8 North Carolina used a first half offensive explosion to pace its way to a 103-90 victory over #6 Gonzaga. The game went a long way to show that the Tar Heels still possess one of the country’s most dynamic offenses and will be reckoned with this season. Senior guard Cameron Johnson and senior forward Luke Maye combined for 45 points in the winning effort, while the team’s duo at point guard – freshman Koby White and junior Seventh Woods – teamed up to contribute 29 points and seven assists. North Carolina still has its defensive flaws, but the Tar Heels have enough firepower to beat anyone. On the other side of the coin, Gonzaga’s defensive issues again presented significant problems, as the Zags allowed 50+ points in both halves and gave up 13 North Carolina three-pointers. Mark Few‘s club will not be exposed on the defensive end of the floor during WCC play this season, but its middling defensive efficiency (63rd nationally) shows the Bulldogs need to work some things out before the NCAA Tournament commences in three months. This week’s Quick n’ Dirty after the jump.

Quick N’ Dirty Thoughts.

After getting blown out at Michigan as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, Roy Williams made some terse comments about the current state of his team — basically saying that North Carolina “stinks,” and that he was doing a poor job coaching his squad. In the Tar Heels’ first real test since that evening, his team laid the wood on Gonzaga, 103-90, Saturday night in the Smith Center. Senior forwards Luke Maye and Cam Johnson led the way as Williams’ team once again looked the part of a legitimate national contender.

After a very successful junior campaign, Maye has to date had a disappointing senior year. His key offensive numbers are down – both in terms of scoring (14.3 versus 16.9 PPG) and shooting (45.0% versus 48.6% FG) — but he got the better of Gonzaga All-America candidate Rui Hachimura on Saturday night. Maye finished with 20 points and 16 rebounds in the winning effort while Hachimura contributed 17 points and six rebounds. One area where Maye has improved this season is at the free throw stripe. After making all seven of his tries against Gonzaga, he is now shooting 79.5 percent on the season (after converting only 62.4 percent of his freebies a year ago).

North Carolina also made a season high 13 three-pointers against the Zags with Johnson chiefly responsible (6-of-8 3FG). Williams has been waiting for a break-out shooting performance, saying after the game, “I’ve been telling Cam [Johnson], Kenny [Williams] and Luke [Maye] that you guys are our best shooters — how ’bout trying to be our best makers?” A regular strength of the North Carolina program is its work on the boards and that was hugely evident on Saturday as well. Gonzaga entered the contest ranked among the 50 best offensive rebounding teams in college basketball, but the Zags managed to only grab five of its 33 misses against the Tar Heels. Meanwhile, North Carolina converted 14 offensive boards into 27 points. As Mark Few said afterward, “They just pounded us on the glass, too. […] The shots we did get them to miss, they usually got the rebound and put it back in.”

What’s Trending is a column examining the week that was in college basketball social media. Matthew Eisenberg (@matteise) is your weekly host.

Gonzaga’s Mark Few did not mince words when talking about NCAA President Mark Emmert, going so far as saying, “Emmert needs to step up and be a leader and make some quicker decisions.” Few continued: “there’s a lot of teams who do it right – the National Champions two out of the last three years. There’s a lot of great things. This thing is worth saving.” While Few later went on to say his championship comments were not a shot at North Carolina’s Roy Williams, it was still interesting timing ahead of Gonzaga’s weekend game against North Carolina (which the Zags lost).

On the topic of Emmert and the NCAA, the NCAA and the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) have partnered on a new rule that limits the players that coaches can watch during the month of June. Limiting access of coaches to players in this way is not a step in the right direction.

While action on the court was limited this week because of final exams, it did include a few noteworthy moments. Midweek action included Villanova’s trip to The Palestra to take on Penn. While the Quakers ultimately came out on top, credit should still be given to Jay Wright for playing the game. High-major programs willing to play true road games at mid-majors is always good for college basketball. 

As college basketball wakes up from Finals Week, it’s a great opportunity to look around the league and see how things are developing. Of course, Kansas being at the top of this league doesn’t surprise anyone, but the pecking order beneath the Jayhawks wasn’t what prognosticators pictured back in October. Texas Tech looks fantastic, although their numbers are a touch inflated by a soft schedule as we’ll get into below. Kansas State and West Virginia don’t look like the contenders many projected, but a couple surprise teams in Oklahoma and TCU have stepped up to take their spots.

1. It doesn’t look like Kansas State and West Virginia will be giving the Jayhawks a run for their money after all, but Texas Tech, on the other hand, is undefeated heading into tomorrow’s match-up with Abilene Christian. This prediction could blow up in my face, seeing as how the Red Raiders have played the third-easiest non-conference schedule in the country, per KenPom, but they have the potential to be one of the best defensive teams we’ve seen in a very long time. Texas Tech’s opponents are averaging a lengthy 18.6 seconds per possession (346th nationally), committing turnovers 26 percent of the time and are shooting just 37.5 percent on two-point tried. Interestingly, Texas Tech isn’t getting out on the break very much despite generating all those turnovers, instead preferring to have Jarrett Culver, Kyler Edwards and Brandone Francis walk the ball up the floor. It’s reasonable to wonder if that will change come Big 12 play, though. The league currently houses four of the nation’s top 20 defensive units aside from the Red Raiders, so it might make sense for Chris Beard’s club to run more often in an attempt to get quality shots before those stifling defenses can set up.
2. While I was pretty high on Texas Tech entering the season, I didn’t foresee Oklahoma and TCU looking as good as they have, and each team is getting it done in different ways. I thought the Sooners would be overwhelmed by the ambitious non-conference schedule Lon Kruger assembled (25th in the country, per KenPom), but while the Sooners still have a few hurdles to clear, their defense has been very good. Oklahoma to date has been strong both in transition and non-transition settings, and they dusted off Notre Dame and Wichita State without their best rim protector, Jamuni McNeace. The Horned Frogs’ offense, meanwhile, looks incredibly cohesive, which isn’t something commonly seen before the calendar flips to the new year. With TCU, the ball is always moving and every pass seems to have a purpose. The metrics affirm it, too, as Jamie Dixon’s team has assisted on a staggering 73 percent of its made shots, which is tops in the country. A potential issue with TCU is Jaylen Fisher’s limited ability to create as he continues to recover from offseason knee surgery. He’s attempted just seven twos in 123 minutes of action, which translates to a shade over three games’ worth of action, and his ability to penetrate just isn’t there yet. While he’s been terrific from deep, it won’t be long before opposing defenses start pressing up on both he and Alex Robinson to keep them from getting so much daylight.
3. When people discuss West Virginia being a different team this season, the conversation is usually centered around how the Mountaineers have regressed without Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles there to set up shop inside opponents’ jerseys. Sure enough, they rank just 143rd in defensive turnover percentage (last four years: first, second, first, second), and even with strong offensive rebounding as usual, the relative lack of turnovers has Bob Huggins turning to an unlikely answer on offense: Sagaba Konate firing from deep. You read that right. The Mountaineers’ vaunted rim protector has attempted 23 three-pointers on the year, but even more surprising is that he’s connected on nine of them, enough to make him the team’s second-leading three-point shooter at 39.1 percent. Konate’s deep ball is slow to release, which shouldn’t shock anyone familiar with his game, nor will it make him the sport’s next unicorn, but he’s been effective enough to keep defenses honest. It’s a good idea for Konate to try to become more versatile, because at just 6’8”, there’s no guarantee that his shot-blocking will translate to the next level, wherever that may be. As long as he continues to make threes at a rate that forces opposing big men out of the paint, however, you’re probably not going to see Huggins complain too much.
4. Kansas State hit a nadir last weekend with an embarrassing 47-46 loss to Tulsa, and while Barry Brown and Kamau Stokes haven’t emerged as the complementary options they were expected to be, Dean Wade’s recent duds (two points on 1-of-6 shooting with three turnovers at Tulsa; 11 points on 3-of-7 shooting and a DQ at Marquette) are concerning. Just five weeks after tip-off, Wade isn’t on the same planet that would be expected of the Preseason Big 12 Player of the Year. I don’t have a ballot, but if I had to name an all-conference first team today, there’s no way I could justify putting him there. He hasn’t been a total loss, and there’s only so much you can do as a big man when the backcourt cannot reliably set you up, but a forward with Wade’s skill set and experience should be considerably further along.
5. Sticking with the Wildcats, the adage goes that once a coach is on the hot seat, he’s never truly off of it, and we’re seeing some of that now as fans are understandably frustrated with Bruce Weber’s performance less than a year removed from leading Kansas State to the Elite Eight. Even though athletic director Dean Taylor extended Weber’s contract last spring, the financials don’t make the extension an anchor, as the new Kansas State football coach, Chris Klieman, will draw a starting salary of just $2.3 million (lowest among the Big 12’s public schools). I’m not saying that Klieman was hired to make it easy for Kansas State to get out of Weber’s contract, but it could be a benefit if the fan base and big donors put enough pressure on the administration to think hard about retaining Weber if he can’t right the ship again.

Although the basketball slate has been very light during finals week, there are several intriguing ACC match-ups coming our way on Saturday. Rush the Court ACC microsite writer Mick McDonald (@themickmcdonald) previews your Saturday. (all rankings via KenPom)

Saturday, December 15

• #87 Old Dominion at #16 Syracuse. The Orange have won five straight games since back-to-back losses at Madison Square Garden last month, but they still have legitimate concerns on offense. Most pundits thought the return of Tyus Battle and the addition of transfer Elijah Hughes, along with freshmen Jalen Carey and Buddy Boeheim, would result in an improved three-point shooting team this season. They’ve been anything but, however, making just 29.0 percent (308th nationally) from long-distance. Luckily, Syracuse, as usual, boasts the 10th-best defense in the country, anchored by 7’2” center Pascal Chukwu (87.0 DRtg, 15.8% blk), who makes it very difficult to finish around the rim. Jim Boeheim‘s group will be tested by a very solid Old Dominion team that is led by two senior guards. Ahmad Caver (18.5 PPG, 5.1 APG, 23.1 PER) is one of the top point guards in the country and B.J. Stith (18.0 PPG, 8.8 RGP, 23.8 PER) is as tough a two-guard as you’ll find anywhere. This pair certainly won’t be intimidated by a raucous atmosphere in the Carrier Dome.

• #27 NC State vs. #42 Penn State. This game will take place in Atlantic City, New Jersey, and offers a great opportunity for NC State to pick up a quality win over a Big Ten team. So far the Wolfpack have played only two games against top 100 opponents, with a neutral court win over Vanderbilt their lone victory. Kevin Keatts’ offense has been led by point guard Markell Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.2 APG, 72.9% eFG), who is the engine that makes the uptempo offense go. That offense will face a top-10 Nittany Lions’ defense on Saturday. NC State likes to play small-ball, but it will have to be ready for Lamar Stevens (20.1 PPG), Penn State’s go-to option with a 30.2 percent usage rate.

• #11 Virginia Tech vs. #52 Washington. How about an ACC double-header in AC this weekend! Virginia Tech will follow behind NC State, a team that of which it is very similar: Both clubs have fantastic offenses that have feasted against mostly inferior competition. To get another notch in its growing belt this weekend, Buzz Williams’ team will need to light up the Washington zone from long-distance. The Hokies are shooting 44.9 percent (fourth nationally) from long-range, with every playing averaging at least 20 minutes per game converting at 40 percent or better. When a team shoots the ball that well, they want to avoid turnovers to get up as many shots as possible. This means that point guard Justin Robinson needs to improve on his 21.3 percent turnover rate if the Hokies hope to make a run in the ACC.

• #6 Gonzaga at #7 North Carolina. This Saturday evening tilt has a chance to be the best game of the entire non-conference slate. Gonzaga has already played a pair of classics with Duke and Tennessee (splitting), but both of those contests were on neutral courts. The Chapel Hill crowd should be fired up to provide an amazing atmosphere for a mid-December college basketball game. Given how deep both of these teams are, it will be fascinating to see how they match up with each other. Will we see five-star freshman Nassir Little (96.1 DRtg) or senior Cam Johnson (95.1 DRtg) defend Gonzaga star Rui Hachimura (26.5 PER & 121.9 ORtg)? Will star freshman point guard Coby White, who missed the Tar Heels’ last game with an ankle injury, suit up? Can Luke Maye get any shots off around the rim with Brandon Clarke (94.3 DRtg, 11.9% blk) lurking nearby? If you are a college basketball fan and aren’t watching this game, what are you doing instead?

While the slate of games this weekend is far from full, there remains plenty of intrigue and questions heading into the action. Here are 10 questions I have heading into this weekend’s games. 

1. Will Gonzaga bounce back from its loss to Tennessee with a win against North Carolina? (Gonzaga @ North Carolina, Saturday 7 PM EST, ESPN2) A 2017 Final Four rematch takes place in Chapel Hill on Saturday evening. Gonzaga is coming off of its first loss of the season, a game in which they led Tennessee by nine points with just over six minutes to go. Gonzaga could be challenged by the Tar Heels’ excellent ability to attack the offensive glass. 
2. Will Butler have enough size to lock down Romeo Langford? (Indiana vs. Butler, Saturday 3:45 PM EST, CBS) Indiana starts four players who are 6’4″ or taller while Butler starts just two players above that height. Romeo Langford’s size will create a mismatch against any Bulldogs starter. The freshman comes into this game averaging over 18 points per game despite going just 5-of-21 from beyond the arc in Indiana’s last six games.
3. Which conference breaks the tie in this ACC/Big Ten Challenge tie-breaker of sorts? (NC State vs. Penn State in Atlantic City, Saturday 2 PM EST, ESPNU) Penn State’s lone bright spot on its season to date is its win over Virginia Tech in the challenge. The Nittany Lions are just 1-3 away from Happy Valley and take on an NC State group whose lone loss came at Wisconsin after blowing a double-figure second half lead. 
4. Can St. Mary’s add a quality win to the WCC conference resume? (LSU vs. St. Mary’s in Las Vegas, Saturday 11 PM EST, ESPNU) After a rough patch in the middle of November, the Gaels have now won four straight contests. This game in Las Vegas will feature a terrific backcourt match-up between St. Mary’s Jordan Ford and LSU’s Tremont Waters.
5. Where will the offense come from in a battle of great defenses? (Cincinnati @ Mississippi State, Saturday 8:30 PM EST, SEC Network) Both teams feature top 30 defenses with suffocating ball pressure and length at the rim. While they have not done a good job in getting to the line, Mississippi State once there has an ability to make free throws at a clip above 76 percent. That could be the difference.
6. Can Villanova’s defense be fixed in time to challenge Kansas in Lawrence? (Villanova @ Kansas, Saturday Noon EST, ESPN) Villanova opponents last season managed to score at a rate of 1.2 points per possession just once all year, per KenPom. This season, the Wildcats have already allowed two opponents (Penn and La Salle) to do so. If the Wildcats can show signs of life defensively, their offense remains potent and capable of stealing a win in Lawrence.
7. Will Nebraska add to its non-conference resume? (Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State in South Dakota, Sunday 7 PM EST, Big Ten Network) A year ago, the Cornhuskers’ resume featured just one non-conference win against a team ranked among the KenPom top 100. Nebraska already has notched three such wins prior to this opportunity. In their last game, the Cornhuskers made 14-of-27 three-point attempts en route to a 19-point win over Creighton.
8. Will Houston stay perfect? (Saint Louis @ Houston, Sunday 3 PM EST, ESPNU) In its last five games, Houston’s Corey Davis and Armani Brooks have gone 8-of-37 and 21-of-56, respectively, from beyond the arc. The three-point happy Cougars take on a Billikens team that is among the nation’s best in defending from distance. 
9. Will someone other than Carsen Edwards show up for Purdue? (Purdue vs. Notre Dame in Indianapolis, Saturday 1:30 PM EST, CBS) In Purdue’s loss last weekend to Texas, the Boilermakers other than Carsen Edwards missed 16-of-18 three-point attempts. Shooting woes for Ryan Cline have led to the senior shooting just 6.7 percent over his last 15 three-point attempts.
10. Can the Pac-12 get a win or two over the Big 12? (Baylor @ Arizona, Saturday 11 PM EST, ESPN2 and USC @ Oklahoma, Saturday 9 PM EST, ESPNU)  As a league, the Pac-12 has won just 11 of 41 Quadrant 1 and 2 games heading into this weekend. Arizona gets a shot at a Baylor team who has yet to beat any club among the KenPom top 150. Wins by Arizona and USC could go a long way for the conference come NCAA Tournament selection time.

In the spirit of Finals Week and the pause it creates in the flow of the non-conference slate, we thought now would be a good time for our own early-year evaluation. With only a few weeks of practice and a handful of tune-ups remaining before conference play, we took a quick look at what each ACC squad could stand to improve upon.

Wake Forest: A 5-3 record, lowlighted by a home loss to Houston Baptist, has the Demon Deacons staring down the barrel of another lost season. Given the likelihood that freshman phenom Jaylen Hoard will spend just another few months in Winston-Salem, developing returning young talent should be paramount. Sophomore Oliver Sarr, who rates 34th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, needs more minutes. And given Wake’s putrid percentage on two-point field goals (48.1%, 239th nationally), Sarr’s prowess on the offensive glass will be of assistance in the near-term.

Pittsburgh: A home loss to Niagara notwithstanding, the Panthers have been feisty under first year coach Jeff Capel. Continuing to feature the freshman backcourt duo of Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens, the team’s first and third-leading scorers, respectively, should pay future dividends even if the pair take their lumps as rookies.

Boston College: The Eagles are a late-game collapse against Providence from standing at 7-1. Junior Ky Bowman has been as good as anticipated, but freshman backcourt mate Wynston Tabbs has been a revelation. Featuring a star like Bowman without stunting the growth of the talented Tabbs is a line that Jim Christian will have to balance throughout league play.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets rank 215th nationally in effective field goal percentage, which is somehow an improvement from a year ago. Once again Josh Pastner’s charges are locking down defensively (11th nationally) but simply cannot put the ball in the hoop. Since they can’t make twos (159th) or threes (250th), here’s a suggestion. For a team that rates 250th nationally in three-point attempt share, what could it hurt to throw caution to the wind and start hoisting a few more from beyond the arc?

Notre Dame: The Fighting Irish uncharacteristically rank 258th (31.2%) in three-point percentage in struggling to a 6-3 start. For Mike Brey’s team to snap out of its funk, they need more from sophomore D.J. Harvey. After three straight double-figure scoring outings, Irish fans are hoping that the light is finally starting to go on for the highly-acclaimed wing who has mostly struggled in his time in South Bend.

Miami: The Hurricanes are currently enduring a curious four-game skid, the last two of which came to a pair of Ivy League foes. With this hole they have dug, Jim Larranaga’s club probably needs to sweep the remainder of its non-conference schedule in addition to notching at least 10 ACC wins to make the NCAA Tournament for the fourth consecutive year. To do that, they need a more efficient Chris Lykes, whose offensive rating has plummeted below 100.0 in each of the four losses.

Clemson: The Tigers have lost to the three best teams on its schedule thus far, including a neutral court defeat to Mississippi State last Saturday. Leading scorer Marcquise Reed missed that affair with a sprained knee, and for Brad Brownell’s club to return to the NCAA Tournament, they need him back in action pronto. The graduation of Gabe DeVoe, who made a team-high 86 three-pointers a year ago, has also shrunk the floor, but Clemson needs to find a way to vastly improve on its chilly 30.9 percent three-point shooting (266th nationally).

Louisville: Not much was expected in year one under Chris Mack, but the Cardinals have proven to be a cohesive, hard-playing bunch. Featuring burgeoning star Jordan Nwora while the rest of the roster excels in their specific roles is the recipe for Mack’s squad to maintain its chemistry and to further exceed preseason expectations.

NC State: Perhaps the biggest positive surprise the league has to offer this season, the Wolfpack’s remarkable offensive start has gone unnoticed nationally. Ranking 15th in offensive efficiency, Kevin Keatts has a deep, talented, unselfish roster, playing his brand of uptempo basketball. The team has great balance — with 10 players averaging at least 4.6 PPG — but if anything could be nitpicked, it is the frigid shooting of sophomore Braxton Beverly. The shooting guard is connecting on only 28.6 percent of his shots — a fact that has been masked by hot shooting among the rest of the roster — but Beverly will need to be reliable when others cool off.

Syracuse: Once again, the Orange just cannot shoot the basketball, and it is difficult to envision them improving much on this key metric. Freshman Buddy Boeheim is an easy target because of his last name, but he is one of the few players with the ability to create space for Oshae Brissett. The coach’s son must improve on his 6-of-29 start from three-point range, however, and, while we’re at it, Marek Dolezaj, should under no circumstances be averaging just three points and two rebounds per game.

Florida State: The Seminoles have been consistent on both ends of the floor in winning eight of its first nine games, with the lone loss coming to defending national champion Villanova. Imagine how much better the 27th most efficient offense in the nation would be if it wasn’t turning it over on an alarmingly high 22.4 percent of its possessions (321st nationally).

Virginia Tech: The Hokies can really shoot the ball, sporting the sixth most efficient offense nationally, on the back of the second-highest effective field goal percentage (61.0%). The backcourt of Justin Robinson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker can stake a claim to being the best in the country, as the two are combining for nearly 33 points and more than 10 assists per game. The Hokies as currently constructed, however, are not a team that can bail themselves out by getting easy points from the free throw line, as they rank 318th nationally in free-throw share. Buzz Williams‘ personnel are designed to get to the rim and create contact — it may just take a few cold shooting nights to provide the impetus to do so.

North Carolina: Here’s a scary proposition for the rest of the ACC: The Tar Heels rank fourth nationally in offensive efficiency and their two most ballyhooed players haven’t played very well this season. Preseason All-American Luke Maye is averaging just 13.7 points per game on 31 percent shooting from deep, while projected lottery pick Nassir Little is averaging fewer than 20 minutes per game. If Maye gets it rolling and Little’s immense talent starts to bloom, this team could be unstoppable on the offensive end of the floor.

Virginia: The Cavaliers are 9-0 to date and have barely had to break a sweat in achieving that perfect record. Ranking 12th nationally on offense and fourth on defense, Tony Bennett’s club is going about its business in its typically efficient, workmanlike manner. However, defensive menace and offensive conductor extraordinaire Kihei Clarke broke his wrist on Sunday, and although no timetable has been set for his return, missing significant time would be a blow to Virginia’s aspirations in capturing back-to-back ACC championships.

Duke: Coming out of the gates like it did against Kentucky in the Champions Classic almost worked against the Blue Devils in that we are unlikely to see them play at that level of dominance again. That certainly doesn’t mean Duke cannot achieve everything it wants — it’s just that its initial effort was so flawlessly sublime. Regardless of what happens in the next few months, Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett and friends will be the favorite to win the national title in March. When situations get tight, though, sometimes games are won and lost on the free-throw line. At 65 percent to date, the Blue Devils need to be better from the charity stripe. But, other than that, they’re awfully good.

Heading into the 2018-19 season, we knew that Duke’s talent would be at a very high level, but there were a handful of legitimate questions surrounding Mike Krzyzewski’s youthful club. With 10 games now in the books and students in the midst of finals, it seems like a good time to assess how the Blue Devils are addressing those preseason concerns. Duke’s 9-1 record has been achieved with superstar freshmen Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett grabbing most of the headlines, but two of their classmates may hold the key to a truly spectacular season.

Question #1: Would the Blue Devils be able to play effective man-to-man defense?

In the preseason, Krzyzewski praised the defensive potential of his team, citing its quickness and length on the perimeter. In recent years, however, Duke has not been very successful in executing Coach K’s favored pressure man-to-man defense. Youth cannot entirely be blamed for those struggles — those teams frequently had effort issues as well. For example, halfway through last season, the Blue Devils’ defense was so bad that Krzyzewski gave up on it and began exclusively playing zone. Based on Duke’s current defensive numbers, that will not be a problem this year. The Blue Devils currently rank fifth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings, while holding opponents to very good shooting rates — 42.4 percent shooting on two-pointers, and 28.2 percent from behind the three-point line.

According to Krzyzewski, freshman point guard Tre Jones deserves most of the credit for the defensive resurgence. Jones’ pressure on the ball is something we haven’t seen from a Blue Devils guard in many years — maybe since Chris Duhon 15 years ago. This allows Duke’s rangy wings to get in passing lanes, generating live-ball turnovers that often lead to showtime dunks at the other end. Duke leads the nation in steal percentage (14.5%) and is forcing turnovers on 21.8 percent of opponents’ possessions (50th nationally). In the previous four seasons, the Blue Devils have not been among the nation’s top 200 teams in forcing miscues. Gonzaga last month achieved some success in attacking Duke’s ball-screen defense when Marquise Bolden was on the floor, but Krzyzewski’s counter to that strategy may be to give more minutes to the more mobile Javin DeLaurier. DeLaurier, who allows the Duke defense to switch at all five spots, made his first start of the year against Yale last Saturday.

Question #2: How good (or bad) will the perimeter shooting be?

Duke has finished among KenPom’s top 10 offensive efficiency rankings in every year of the past decade. A big component of that success has been the Blue Devils’ sustained ability to knock down perimeter shots, year after year. Over the past nine campaigns, Duke has converted at least 37 percent of its shots from long-range, finishing well above the national average each year. While immensely talented, none of this season’s four ballyhooed freshmen came to college known for their expertise in shooting the ball. And with no returning players of note, outside shooting acumen was a huge question for this team heading into the Champions Classic. After 10 games, this is still a concern – Duke is currently making just 33.2 percent of its three-point efforts.

A deeper dive into the numbers, however, reveals that Duke’s perimeter shooting woes may not be as bad as its season mark suggests. The Blue Devils were ice cold in their last two outings, making just 10-of-47 from distance, but prior to those two games, they sank a respectable 36.0 percent of their three-point attempts. And perhaps surprisingly, Duke is shooting better when it faces tougher competition – making 37.6 percent from beyond the arc versus the five best defenses they have faced. One potential caveat here is that Krzyzewski’s club is too dependent on Cam Reddish’s game-to-game accuracy. As Duke’s highest-volume deep shooter, Reddish’s propensity for streakiness is concerning. After starting the year on fire – 10-of-21 from three-point range in his first two games – he has struggled lately. Reddish was largely responsible (1-of-14) for Duke’s poor three-point shooting in its last two contests, and a cold night from him could be problematic when Duke begins to tackle the better defensive teams in the ACC.

The Big East appears headed toward a down season after many conference teams lost valuable upperclassmen to graduation and the NBA Draft. Players like St. John’s Shamorie Ponds, Seton Hall’s Myles Powell and Providence’s Alpha Diallo have, as a result, taken their games to the next level to become this season’s stars. But their jumps were anticipated as they all have shown flashes of future greatness throughout their collegiate careers.

What about the players who have broken out this season? This article will instead analyze six players whose strong performances to date were not expected this season. The list is ordered from least surprising to most surprising.

6. Michael Nzei, PF, SR, Seton Hall – 10.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 73% FG

Nzei has been a valuable piece for Seton Hall throughout his career, averaging at least 13 minutes per game since his freshman season. He has mostly served as the first big man off the bench (behind Ish Sanogo or Angel Delgado), but he has emerged from the role of energetic rebounder to a legitimate offensive threat this season. This increased aggressiveness can be seen through a significant scoring increase (3.9 to 10.6 PPG) that is predicated on his quickness and ability to blow past opposing big men. Nzei’s hot start can also be attributed to Taurean Thompson’s disappointing play, as the former Syracuse power forward has clearly fallen behind Nzei on the depth chart.

5. LJ Figueroa, Wing, SO, St. John’s – 15.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 44% 3FG

Figueroa looked like he was set to become one of the best sixth men in college basketball, but Chris Mullin’s decision to go small thrust the sophomore wing into the starting lineup. Once Sedee Keita was sidelined with an injury, Figueroa has faced virtually no competition and has taken full advantage of his opportunity. The former JuCo transfer has seamlessly transitioned to the Big East by averaging 15.3 PPG and 7.7 RPG through the Red Storm’s 9-0 start. Figueroa is a good athlete who provides excellent floor spacing as a small-ball four, and he projects as a key component of St. John’s breakout season.

4. AJ Reeves, Wing, FR, Providence – 14.2 PPG, 45% 3FG, 50% FG

Reeves was a top 50 recruit so expectations for his performance were already high, but few observers could have expected such a strong start for the Providence freshman. His knockdown three-point shooting ability has been as good as advertised (45% 3FG), but he has also shown an ability to attack the basket and score on straight-line drives. Reeves has been extremely effective in transition too, where he can finish above the rim or use his soft touch to play through contact. Like most freshmen, however, Reeves’ defense is inconsistent (at best), but once he develops better fundamentals on that end of the floor, the sky is the limit for the young wing. Reeves is currently out of the lineup with a foot injury so hopefully he can maintain his early stellar play when he returns next month.

3. Damien Jefferson,Wing, SO, Creighton – 11.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 61% 3FG

The power forward position was Creighton’s biggest preseason concern after its previous starter, Ronnie Harrell, surprisingly transferred. Would the Bluejays decide to go small with Connor Cashaw or Mitch Ballock at the position; or would they go big and slide Martin Krampejl there? It turned out that New Mexico transfer Damien Jefferson not only had the perfect skill set for the position, but also the talent back it up. The sophomore only averaged 5.3 PPG as a freshman with the Lobos two seasons ago, but he has more than doubled his scoring output to date at his new school. Jefferson is a big athletic forward who can really defend and is off to a scorching hot start from three-point range (61% 3FG) this season.

2. Paul Jorgensen, SG, SR, Butler – 17.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 43% 3FG

Jorgensen was in and out of the Butler starting lineup last year but has become an offensive focal point for the Bulldogs this season. There were plenty of shots available after Kelan Martin graduated and the senior has taken complete advantage of that opportunity. Primarily playing the small forward slot next to Kamar Baldwin and Aaron Thompson, Jorgensen relies on his long-range jumper and ability to put the ball on the floor to create opportunities — allowing for a big improvement for someone who averaged only 10.2 PPG last season. Baldwin is likely to lead Butler in scoring by the end of the season, but the surprising Jorgensen should be a close second.

1. Ty-Shon Alexander, G, SO, Creighton- 18.3 PPG, 3.1 APG, 44% 3FG

Alexander has been the most surprising player in the Big East to date. He played a substantial role at the point guard slot for the Bluejays as a freshman, ,splitting the role with Davion Mintz. Now that Khyri Thomas is in the NBA and Marcus Foster has graduated, however, Alexander has flourished at his natural position off the ball. The sophomore still frequently operates with the ball in his hands, but he does so now as the primary scorer rather than someone balancing scoring and distributing. He is a shifty and explosive combo guard who can finish at the rim in addition to hitting perimeter jumpers, making him an extremely dynamic offensive force. His jump from 5.5 PPG a season ago to 18.3 PPG this year has been eye-opening.