From a close call to Incarnate Word on opening night to a not-so-close upset at home this week by UT-Arlington, the first three weeks of this season have not gone how Texas had hoped. The pain that comes with a three-game losing streak (Northwestern and Colorado did the trick last week) is only exacerbated by the fact that Texas hasn’t yet played a single team most would consider an NCAA Tournament lock. Only six games into the season, Shaka Smart‘s team is struggling to find answers, perhaps still feeling the hangover from Paul Jesperson’s halfcourt buzzer-beating shot in last season’s Big Dance. Texas was 3-3 after an overtime win against UT-Arlington exactly one year ago, but a five-game winning streak that included a victory over North Carolina ensued. Texas is not on track for such a streak, or even a winning record, this time around, and these are the key reasons why.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t been all smiles for Shaka Smart and Texas this season. (Texas Athletics)

• Loss of top three scorers: Replacing 3,446 combined career points doesn’t happen overnight. The realization that the Longhorns have lost last season’s top three scorers — Isaiah Taylor, Cameron Ridley, and Javan Felix — has taken a bigger toll than expected. Looking back two seasons ago, a starting five that also included one-and-done Myles Turner and Jonathan Holmes is completely gone. Instead, the burden has fallen on returnees Tevin Mack, Kerwin Roach, Jr. and Kendal Yancy, along with freshmen Jarrett Allen and Andrew Jones, to pick up the pieces. The Longhorns should certainly get better as the season progresses, but lack of an experienced playmaker who can settle roles and responsibilities has taken its toll in the early going.

• Free throw and three-point shooting: The most alarming statistic in each of Texas’ three losses is with the Longhorns’ abysmal three-point shooting percentage (21.3%). Even including the three wins only raises it to 26.2 percent, which ranks among the bottom 12 teams in college basketball, according to KenPom. While Texas isn’t likely to shoot as poorly as it has the last few games, the Longhorns probably won’t start making 40 percent of their triples on a regular basis either. In addition, Smart’s unit has struggled shooting from the foul line, coming in among the 50 worst foul shooting teams in the country at a measly 63.2 percent. Mack appears to be the only reasonable shooter on the roster, and even he has struggled from the foul line (10-of-19). In order to win close games, better three-point and free throw shooting is vital but it is unclear how Texas is going to find better shooters overnight.
• Lack of quality win opportunities in the non-conference: Texas revived its season a year ago with a quality non-conference win in Austin over North Carolina, but a similar opportunity won’t present itself this season. The biggest non-conference challenge remaining is a road game at Michigan next week, a team that has itself already dropped games to South Carolina and Virginia Tech. On the other hand, every Big 12 team other than the Longhorns is undefeated or has only one loss. Some of that is the result of favorable scheduling, but it raises a concern that Smart’s club will have a tough time competing in the Big 12 unless some of these ongoing offensive problems are solved.

Justin Fedich (11 Posts)

Justin Fedich is a sports journalism graduate of the University of Georgia. You can follow him on Twitter @jfedich.

This entry was posted on Friday, December 2nd, 2016 at 10:01 am by Justin Fedich and is filed under big 12, feature, microsites. Tagged: free throws, ncaa tournament, texas. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.