Evaluating Iowa’s Recent Slump
Posted by Deepak Jayanti on February 25th, 2016In a home loss to surging Wisconsin last night, Iowa again refused to control its own destiny on the way to a Big Ten title. Every time Indiana or Maryland slips up and leaves the Hawkeyes with a big opening, Fran McCaffery’s team just can’t seem to string together a consistent 40 minutes. The loss to the Badgers is Iowa’s third in its last four outings, with the only win coming against cellar-dwelling Minnesota. The perplexing part of the Hawkeyes’ recent slide is that there hasn’t been a clear statistical reason for it — rebounding and turnovers, for example, have been within normal ranges. Rather, a consistent theme in the losses seems to be a relative lack of leadership and a diverse offensive tool kit which doesn’t expand much beyond the three-point shot. Let’s evaluate both of these concerns.
McCaffery’s Hawkeyes need to prove they can win out-score their opponents in the half-court. (AP/C. Neibergall)
- Limited offensive game plan. A three-point percentage of 27.8 percent last night from a team that relies so heavily on the three-point shot is a troubling sign, but the bigger concern is limited shot selection from its sharp-shooters, Jared Uthoff and Peter Jok. While Jok prefers to be set up for this threes, Uthoff likes to create his own shot in isolation. Both of these maneuvers have become too predictable. The formula for defensive success here includes initially cutting off the corners and the trailing Hawkeye during transition. Once Iowa settles into the half-court, Mike Gesell usually tries to take his defender off the dribble, but smart defenders give him space to shoot a long two. Gesell is reluctant to shoot the three, so limiting his options to a shot at the top of the key is a much better strategy than letting him draw and dish to Jok or Uthoff in the corners. Putting Uthoff in isolation is another worthy defensive gamble because it typically extends the length of the offensive possession. Iowa’s average offensive possession length is 16.3 seconds, but isolation tends to slow down activity for everyone else without the ball. Uthoff shot a paltry 6-of-23 from beyond the arc during the recent three losses so he needs to be more mindful of defenses challenging him to put the ball on the floor rather than allowing him to line up open jump shots.
- Mike Gesell needs to create better shots in the half-court. An average of 6.3 assists per game clearly indicates Gesell’s outstanding overall floor vision, but most of his dimes are a direct result of Iowa’s up-tempo offense. In the half-court, the Hawkeyes rarely reverse the ball because center Adam Woodbury is ineffective in the pick-and-roll. The seven-footer is capable of setting effective screens but he has an extremely limited jumper and is terrible in rolling to the basket. Opposing forwards will never leave Gesell open off the screens but Uthoff in that spot could change that because he can shoot it from anywhere on the floor. As for Gesell, he shot 4-of-17 from the field against Wisconsin and Penn State, but giving him more time to find a better shot in the offense might be beneficial. He needs multiple screens to get free, which could extend the length of Iowa’s’ possession, but should also allow Iowa’s offense to stretch the floor horizontally and take advantage of its mismatches. Gesell has the ball-handling skills to accomplish this goal without turning it over, but something needs to change as Iowa heads into March.
