Rankings come in two varieties, those based on statistical metrics (e.g., the RPI, KenPom, Sagarin and Massey ratings systems) and those based on individual votes (e.g., the RTC, AP and USA Today/Coaches polls). Changes in specific rankings tend to follow certain patterns — the “numbers” rankings do not tend to change all that much with a single win or loss; the human polls tend to change weekly as a reflection of the voters’ reactions to the latest batch of wins and losses. This season’s plethora of upsets has already introduced an element of chaos to the rankings and each type of system has responded in ways that break with their historic patterns for dealing with upsets and overlooked teams.

Jay Wright and Villanova have been on point. (Getty)

The metrics-based systems have shuffled their top 10 to 25 teams radically, while the polling systems have resisted a common tendency to drop teams that lose below those that remain undefeated. Villanova’s treatment by each system can be viewed as this season’s Exhibit A. Both systems were consistent in the preseason on where Jay Wright’s Wildcats belonged. KenPom (which ranked his team around #11) as well as the AP and the USA Today/Coaches polls (#11 and #9, respectively) agreed that Villanova was very good but not among the elite handful of teams that the Selection Committee rewarded with top-two seeds during the last two NCAA Tournaments. Through the first two weeks of the season, however, the two ratings systems have diverged greatly on this squad. As of today, the trio of KenPom (#2), Sagarin (#1) and Massey (#4) all agree that Villanova is the working equivalent of a #1 seed, but the humans voting in the polls largely remain skeptical. The AP has moved Villanova up only three spots from preseason #11 to #8, while the USA Today/Coaches have kept the Wildcats in limbo at #9. Only RTC, which moved Villanova up five spots to #5 in its latest poll, seems to feel a promotion has been earned.

Despite winning the school’s third consecutive holiday tournament, Villanova’s performance in the 2015 NIT Tip-Off probably will not move the needle much for the human pollsters. Its 59-45 win over Stanford on Thanksgiving was a brutal 66-possession assault on the eyeballs (and basketball sensibilities) that featured a defensive rock fight of poor shooting and fouling (44 total violations). Villanova converted baskets at a dismal rate of 0.89 points per possession, only marginally more efficient than Johnny Dawkins’ squad, which committed 23 turnovers while converting a paltry 0.68 points per possession. The metrics systems all use different measures, but Ken Pomeroy’s four factors approach identifies Villanova’s consistently strong defense as the measure most responsible for the Wildcats’ success (and corresponding rise in metrics-based rankings). Villanova’s offensive efficiency has ranged from 0.89 points per possession (PPP) to 1.28 PPP so far this season, but the Wildcats have consistently throttled their opponents defensively by holding them to less than 0.90 PPP in all six games.

Regardless of rankings, however, Villanova will likely be right in the top of the mix. (AP)

According to Georgia Tech head coach Brian Gregory, whose Yellow Jackets lost to Villanova, 69-52, in the championship game on Friday afternoon, “Their defense has been solid and steady […] we knew it would be difficult to score — our first/second [scoring] option might not be there — and we would have to go to our third and fourth.” Wright, reflecting on the Wildcats’ stellar defense so far this season, offered his own analysis: “I’m actually a little surprised at it right now; […] we are struggling on rebounding, but we’re turning people over and we’re getting a lot of stops. We have really good basketball IQ and we have two seniors [Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu] who take pride in defense and demand it of everybody else.”

Relying heavily on three-point shooting (50.4 percent of field goal attempts) while struggling to rebound leaves Villanova vulnerable to extended scoring droughts, but Wright believes that two of his guards who earned spots on the all-tournament team — sophomore Josh Hart and freshman Jalen Brunson — are his counters. Each can drive the lane and finish at the basket. A combination of slashing attacks to the rim and entry passes to low post players Ochefu and Darryl Reynolds enabled Villanova to convert 19-of-24 two-point attempts on Friday.

Is Villanova’s top-rated Pomeroy defense strong enough to keep the Wildcats in control on nights when their three-point shots aren’t dropping? Perhaps more importantly, can the Wildcats counter with an effective inside attack when opponents plant themselves on the three-point line? Through six games those questions haven’t needed an answer, but upcoming games with Oklahoma in Hawaii (December 7) and Virginia in Charlottesville (December 19) should drive the human pollsters in one direction or another. Only then will we be able to determine whethe Wright’s squad is overrated or underrated to this point in the season.

This entry was posted on Monday, November 30th, 2015 at 9:01 am by Joe Dzuback (@vbtnblog) and is filed under big east, microsites. Tagged: feature, Jalen Brunson, jay wright, josh hart, preseason nit, villanova. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.