ACC Preview: North Carolina’s Burning Question
Posted by Matt Patton on November 5th, 2015This team preview is part of the RTC ACC microsite’s preseason coverage.
Burning Question: Is this really the best team in the country?
The Tar Heels were a very good team last season — remember, they led national runner-up Wisconsin until the final six minutes of the Sweet Sixteen (and were within one point in the final minute). But JP Tokoto opted to play basketball for money, leaving Roy Williams without much depth on the wing. Theo Pinson will likely get the call to replace him and seems a good fit for the role. He was a worse than average shooter last season but he was a good prep free throw shooter which usually tracks well with shooting ability. Pinson should immediately assume the role as this team’s defensive stopper.
Is a healthy Theo Pinson the difference between a good and great North Carolina team? (USATSI)
The x-factors for this team are twofold. First and foremost, Marcus Paige has to get healthy — his recently broken hand will put him out of action for a month. The real x-factor, however, is Joel Berry. Berry was quietly very efficient last season. It was shocking that he finished the season with an offensive efficiency rating of over 110 (the best of the bench). With Paige out of the lineup, this will be Berry’s offense to run from day one along with Nate Britt. The good news for Tar Heels fans is that both point guards are competent three-point shooters, and it’s also good for both to get early season experience at point guard so that when Paige comes back he’ll mostly be able to play off the ball.
With Paige out for the first few weeks, the best player on the team should be Brice Johnson. Justin Jackson will get deserving love as Paige’s sidekick, but expect Johnson to be the higher usage player this season. The counterargument is that Jackson was a freshman who increased his usage down the stretch last season. Either way, North Carolina is going to be really balanced on offense. That balance will also make them one of the very best offensive team in the country (if not the very best). With Johnson and Kennedy Meeks doing work up front, expect an elite team on the offensive boards. There’s a little dropoff in rebounding between those two and Isaiah Hicks, but the junior forward can hold his own.
So why the hesitation about this team as the best in the nation? One, there’s the health issue. North Carolina has had abysmal injury luck the last few seasons (going all the way back to when Kendall Marshall broke his wrist in 2012). It’s difficult to really know how good last year’s team would have been if fully healthy. Second is defense. Roy Williams’ teams are normally very good on defense (and seem even better than they are, as they are impossible to stop in transition), but last year’s team was only competent in getting stops (51st nationally in defensive efficiency). Ideally, the Heels would also shore up their defensive rebounding issues and improve on committing fouls, but to have a reasonable shot at winning the National Championship this season, history says that North Carolina needs to be among the top 25 in defensive efficiency.
North Carolina will be one of the best teams in college basketball this season. The roster is stacked with a rare combination of experience as well as four- and five-star recruits. The Heels can also play big in a way that will prove impossible for many opponents to guard. But it will be the little things — like better defensive efforts, rebounding, and a commitment to stop reaching — that will make all the difference between a #1 seed and a #3 seed come Selection Sunday.
