Oregon Preview: No Longer Forever Young
Posted by Andrew Murawa on October 30th, 2015In the next three weeks leading up to season tipoff, the Pac-12 microsite will be evaluating each of the league’s 12 teams. Today, we head to Eugene.
Oregon Ducks
Eleven wins in Oregon’s final 13 conference games earned the Ducks a second-place conference finish, a Coach of the Year award, and a Player of the Year award (the latter two of which sent a certain southwestern state into an apoplectic fit) last season. Well, that Player of the Year – one Joseph Young – is gone, but all told, five of the Ducks’ eight players who averaged more than 10 minutes per game last season return. And, per usual, head coach Dana Altman has a couple impact transfers on the way to pair with a trio of talented freshmen. In short, expectations in Eugene remain high.
Minus Joseph Young, Dana Altman Still Has A Talented Roster (Michael Arellano/Emerald)
Strengths. There are a lot of them, but we’ll opt for two for the sake of succinctness: depth and versatility. First, there are those five returning players – Elgin Cook, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Bell, Dwayne Benjamin and Casey Benson – each of whom played at least 47.9 percent of the Ducks’ possible minutes last season. To that mix add a touch of senior point guard in Villanova transfer Dylan Ennis. Throw in a little reigning National Junior College Player of the Year Chris Boucher. And then toss in a jumble of three different four-star recruits for good measure. If Altman chooses, his team can go 10 deep and can play in a variety of different ways. Benson’s a true point type of guy, but he’ll compete for playing time at the one with Ennis and freshman Tyler Dorsey, both of whom can also play off the ball. Cook and Bell up front may well be the bouncy combination Altman likes at the four and the five spots, but he could go big with the 6’10” Boucher or 6’9” freshman Trevor Manuel and slide either incumbent over a spot. And then on the wing? There are two big walking mismatches in guys like Brooks and Benjamin. Altman’s certainly got a lot of fun mix-and-match toys to play with this season.
Weaknesses. Last season the Ducks ranked 121st in defensive efficiency nationally, allowing better than a point per possession against an average basketball team. And that’s even with shot-blocking phenom Jordan Bell (who swatted one out of every nine two-point attempts while he was on the court) as their last line of defense. Bell returns but he is fighting his way back from offseason surgery on a broken foot. Luckily, even if he misses time, both Boucher and Manuel are capable rim protectors who bring more size that the Ducks had last season. This squad’s ability to stop the other team from scoring is going to be far more important without all-everything offensive star Young around. While Oregon’s offense can be expected to excel, in order for this team to make it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament (a legitimate goal), it’s going to need significantly better production on the defensive end of the court.
Jordan Bell: Hand Is Part of The Ball, Right? (USA Today)
Non-Conference Tests. The Ducks have a completely manageable non-conference schedule that offers up the opportunity for some decent wins. They will start with a November schedule that never leaves the friendly climes of Eugene: A visit from Baylor as part of the ESPN Tip-Off Marathon is by far their toughest game before facing a sneaky-good Valparaiso team almost a week later. Oregon’s first road trip will be to UNLV on December 4; eight days later they will travel over to Boise. Later that month the Ducks will face Alabama in a neutral-site game in Birmingham that will only be neutral because the joint will likely be half-empty. There are also a pair of intriguing home games against Fresno State and UC Irvine, but all told, Ken Pomeroy favors the Ducks in every 2015 game. An 11-1 record in their 12 non-conference games is a reachable goal.
Toughest Conference Stretch. Because the Ducks open with Oregon State on the road, they are the one team in the Pac-12 without three consecutive conference road games. Still, the fact that they have the misfortune of avoiding the easiest road trip in the conference this year (at the Washington schools) gives them one heck of a tough conference schedule. Just getting out of the gate looks rough enough. Open at Oregon State on the Sunday after New Year’s. Head home to host Cal and Stanford. Get out on the road again for the high-altitude combo of Utah and Colorado. Head back home for USC and UCLA. Then it’s back out on the road for Arizona and Arizona State to finish up January. There is no room for a moment’s breath in that first full month of conference play.
Biggest Story. With Young’s eligibility expired, Altman turns the page on a tumultuous era of Oregon basketball. Sure, there were 50 wins (including a pair of NCAA Tourney victories) against 20 losses. And Young, despite only playing a couple of seasons in Eugene, was an offensive wizard, one who will without question go down as one of the greatest individual players in the history of Oregon basketball. But there was also his and Altman’s involvement in an alleged sexual assualt scandal in the spring of 2014. One result of that incident was an attendance dive-bomb resulting in a regularly half-empty (pessimism fully noted and intended) Matthew Knight Arena last season. At a time when the cool also seems to be coming off the Oregon football program, the 2015-16 season could be a turning point for the Ducks’ basketball program. If Altman’s sideline wizardry continues and this squad lives up to its potential of a second-weekend NCAA Tournament run, it could be a springboard to Oregon becoming a national mainstay. If the Ducks take a step back and fail to regain their local support, last season could have been an unseemly high water mark.
If Everything Goes Right… Bell’s foot is healthy early and often. Ennis embodies the phrase “senior point guard.” Dorsey is a star from day one. Boucher transitions to the next level without missing a beat. Benjamin, Brooks and Cook are every bit as good as last year – and then some. If everything falls into place, this team could be playing for a long time. While they may not have the type of high-end ceiling that, say, California has, the Ducks aren’t that far behind. And they probably have a higher floor.
If Nothing Goes Right… Athletic big guys and foot injuries: What could go wrong? Let’s just say there is reason to be nervous about Bell’s extended recovery from offseason foot surgery. Maybe Ennis and his 62 percent free throw shooting are a problem. Maybe Dorsey doesn’t live up to the hype. Maybe Brooks and Benjamin and Cook, though turning in the requisite amount of spectacular offensive plays, never focus enough to dial it in defensively. All of this means that the Ducks turn into little more than a fun third-place Pac-12 team whose season ends on the same mid-March day when another relatively forgettable eight or 16 teams across the nation also see their seasons end.
Projected Starting Lineup
- PG Dylan Ennis (Sr, 6’2”, 200 lbs, 9.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 36.3 3P% at Villanova last year)
- SG Tyler Dorsey (Fr, 6’4” 180 lbs)
- SF Dillon Brooks (So, 6’6” 225 lbs, 11.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 82.2 FT%)
- PF Elgin Cook (Sr, 6’6” 205 lbs, 13.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG)
- C Jordan Bell (So, 6’9”, 225 lbs, 5.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.7 BPG, 11.3 Blk %)
Ennis is the steady veteran point who can slide over to the two if necessary. Dorsey is the explosive, upside-heavy, novice wing who can take over at lead guard when needed. Up front the Ducks are a little undersized but they have the potential to bring impact players off the pine. Of some concern is this team’s ability to knock in the three at a high enough rate. Ennis’ three-point numbers are only slightly above pedestrian, but he’s still the best proven shooter on this squad.
Key Reserves
- PF Chris Boucher (Jr, 6’10” 180 lbs, 22.5 PPG, 11.8 RPG at Northwest College in Wyoming last year)
- SF Dwayne Benjamin (Sr, 6’7” 210 lbs, 8.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 49.2 FT%)
- PG Casey Benson (So, 6’3” 185 lbs, 3.5 PPG, 2.0 APG in 19.6 MPG)
- PF Trevor Manuel (Fr, 6’9”, 200 lbs)
- SG Kendall Small (Fr, 6’0” 170 lbs)
Benjamin is a known quantity — a stud sixth man. Boucher, though unproven at this level, could be even better — a long, mobile, athletic play-maker with the ability to garner all-conference consideration when all is said and done. Benson’s a solid pass-first point. Manuel could be a year away from making any impact. But Small, though aesthetically living up to his last name, could be forced into a role as the only other scoring guard coming off the pine. Also in the mix is sophomore stretch-four Roman Sorkin, who averaged about five minutes a game after enrolling at the semester break last season.
Andrew Murawa Likes Basketball.
