Arizona State Preview: Hurley’s First Stand
Posted by Andrew Murawa on October 21st, 2015In the next three weeks leading up to season tipoff, the Pac-12 microsite will be evaluating each of the league’s 12 teams. Today, we head to Phoenix.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Over the next few weeks, we’ll preview each Pac-12 team in random order, but today we’ll start with the Sun Devils and new head coach Bobby Hurley. Hurley, formerly of Buffalo and a member of college basketball royalty as a two-time national champion point guard at Duke, takes over as Arizona State’s head coach after Herb Sendek was fired following a fifth-place Pac-12 finish last season. Four of the team’s five leading scorers return, with three junior college transfers and a freshman rounding out the likely rotation.
Strengths. Six players return from last year and, as it turns out, they seem to fit perfectly together. Four starters return – sophomore point Tra Holder; senior off-guard Gerry Blakes; junior power forward Savon Goodman; and senior center Eric Jacobsen – leaving the fifth starting spot ready to be grabbed by senior wing Willie Atwood. Guard Kodi Justice – an intriguing prospect with plenty of versatility– figures to be the sixth man. And between those six, there’s a variety of talent here. Goodman and Jacobsen form an imposing frontcourt. There’s athleticism and upside in the backcourt. And for a team that plans to push tempo, there is plenty of high-flying play-making ability as well.
The Returning Trio Of Tra Holder, Savon Goodman And Eric Jacobsen Gives Bobby Hurley Hopes In His First Season In Tempe (Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today)
Weaknesses. Two things stand out here. First, beyond those top six players, there’s not much proven talent. Obinna Oleka stands out as the newcomer with the best chance of becoming an impact performer, but JuCo guards Andre Spight and Maurice O’Field will likely be called upon to contribute as well. It was hoped frosh forward Andre Adams could chip in right away too, but he tore his ACL (for the second time in his career) in September and will spend this year rehabilitating. Of the guys remaining, Spight in particular may be called upon for his ability to knock in the perimeter jumper because nobody else on this roster has a history of competent three-point shooting. Blakes is the leading returning long-range dialer, having knocked in 39 threes last season, but he did so at just a 30.2 percent clip. Justice shot 45.9 percent from deep, but on just 37 attempts. In an ideal world this season, Justice ups his attempts, Blakes ups his efficiency and Spight lends a hand as well. If the Devils can add some perimeter punch, that will make Goodman and Jacobsen that much more impressive in the paint.
Non-Conference Tests. By the time November is finished, the Sun Devils will have at least three good tests in the books. As part of the Legends Classic, they’ll host Belmont in their second game of the season. Then, in the same event, they’ll travel to Brooklyn where they’ll face North Carolina State in the semifinals followed by either LSU or Marquette a couple days before Thanksgiving. From there, things don’t get a lot easier, with a visit from Texas A&M stuffed in the middle of road trips to Creighton, Kentucky and UNLV. By the time the Sun Devils get to conference play, they may have had a chance to play potential future NBA Lottery Picks such as Skal Labissiere (Kentucky, assuming he’s eligible), Ben Simmons (LSU), Jamal Murray (Kentucky), Henry Ellenson (Marquette), Isaiah Briscoe (Kentucky), and Stephen Zimmerman (UNLV). How many other teams can say that?
Toughest Conference Stretch. One of the first things to do when you see a Pac-12 conference schedule for any team is to isolate that portion of their schedule when they’re on the road for three straight games. For the Sun Devils, that stretch comes in mid-to-late February when they travel down the road to face Arizona at McKale, followed a week later by trips to Utah and Colorado. If Arizona State is in the mix for a postseason berth, that stretch, followed by a regular season-ending home stand against the Bay Area schools, could be the make-or-break sequence.
Biggest Story. Clearly it is Hurley. His two seasons at Buffalo were impressive. His team improved both years; he established a head coaching identity; and, given his name recognition and energetic style, is a good fit in Tempe. Still, this is his first gig in the big time and he’s not been handed a roster without some issues. But there are enough parts here to give Hurley a puncher’s chance and there’s every reason to be excited to see him take that swing.
If Everything Goes Right… Along with the uptick in tempo that Hurley is talking about, the Sun Devils increase their efficiency on both ends of the court as a result of: (1) youngsters like Tra Holder and Kodi Justice developing with more experience; and (2) this group of returnees spending a second year building trust and rapport. There may be some early bumps in the road as a result of that difficult early schedule, but if Arizona State can get a good early scalp from a team like NC State, Marquette or LSU in the Legends Classic and build some confidence, they’ve got enough talent to be a thorn in the side of some of the usual suspects expected to be in the mix at the top of the Pac-12 standings. An NCAA Tournament bid is within striking distance for this team if things fall right.
If Nothing Goes Right… There is so little proven depth on this roster that staying healthy and out of trouble is a main component in any equation leading to success. Included in that mix is foul trouble concerns, because each of the expected starting front line for the Sun Devils committed at least 4.3 fouls per 40 minutes in 2014-15. In particular, it is imperative that Jacobsen and Goodman can be relied on for serious minutes on this squad. The other big thing is going to be three-point shooting. Last year, even with proven shooters like Jonathan Gilling, Bo Barnes and, to a lesser extent, Shaquielle McKissic, the Devils were still just 134th in the nation in three-point percentage. Those guys are all gone and if nobody steps up to fill the void, opposing defenses will be likely to pack it in, clog the lane and make use of those five fewer seconds on the shot clock to turn Arizona State into an offensive abomination.
Projected Starting Lineup
- PG Tra Holder (So, 6’1” 180 lbs, 7.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.2 RPG, 35.0 eFG%)
- SG Gerry Blakes (Sr, 6’4” 195 lbs, 11.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 30.2 3P%)
- SF Willie Atwood (Sr, 6’7” 215 lbs, 3.0 PPG, 1.7 RPG in 11.6 MPG)
- PF Savon Goodman (Jr, 6’6” 220 lbs, 11.2 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 23.8 DR%)
- C Eric Jacobsen (Sr, 6’10” 240 lbs, 8.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.6 eFG%)
None of these players is a ready-made star, but each has enough upside to significantly improve on some portions of their games. Holder and Blakes could stand to improve their shooting efficiency; Atwood seems poised to take on a larger role and use his athleticism to his defensive advantage; while both Goodman and Jacobsen could see significant increases in their usage rates. Given the way this squad fits together, this could be an underrated starting five if those things head in the right direction.
Key Reserves
- G Kodi Justice (So, 6’5” 190 lbs, 4.6 PPG, 1.6 APG in 12.7 MPG in 18 games)
- F Obinna Oleka (Jr, 6’7” 225 lbs)
- G Andre Spight (Jr, 6’3” 168 lbs)
- G/F Maurice O’Field (So, 6’5” 210 lbs)
Justice is a terrific shooter, a creative passer, ball-handler and a natural playmaker, but he struggled on the defensive end as a freshman with just average athleticism. If he can adjust in his second year, he could be a difference maker off the bench. Oleka will certainly be called upon to chip in at both forward spots immediately. Spight is a skinny wisp of a player, but he can play both guard spots and will be relied upon for his accurate three-point shooting. Then there’s O’Field, an athletic wing who, by sheer fact of the roster, will probably need to spend some time as an undersized three this season.
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