Pac-12 Burning Questions: About Those Tourney Teams?
Posted by Andrew Murawa on March 18th, 2015
Four Pac-12 teams are going dancing. And we’ve got four Burning Questions. Coincidence? Yeah, probably. But, below, you’ll get takes from Adam Butler and Andrew Murawa about what to expect from the teams around the Conference of Champions this week and beyond.
Q: So, UCLA’s in the Tournament. On a scale of 1 to Holy Crap Really! how surprised are you. And can they do anything with their good fortune?
Adam Butler: I don’t know why but when the Bruins’ name was called on Sunday I wasn’t all that shocked. It makes no sense because they haven’t impressed by the numbers or the eyeball tests. But at the same time I like so many things about this team in a tournament setting. They’re the only Pac-12 team to keep things close on two occasions with Arizona and – while I don’t love moral victories – that’s something. Of course the committee doesn’t pay attention to any of the storylines so it’s not like Larry Brown ever coached UCLA or anything. I remain concerned about the Bruins’ cohesiveness but if all I need is to win one game, it’s hard not to at least be somewhat impressed with Kevon Looney and Norman Powell.
Yep, we had the same reaction, Bryce. (AP)
Andrew Murawa: I’m definitely all the way over on the Holy Crap Really! side of things. I just don’t get how the Bruins have done anything to deserve playing in this Tournament. They have home wins over Oregon and Utah which are, yeah, whatever, fine. Beyond that, the biggest smiley-face on their report card is only losing by an average of eight points in their two games against Arizona. Is that all you need to do these days? Play in a big conference and lose to good teams? All that said, when the Bruins have things clicking, they’re pretty fearsome. Tony Parker is coming along in the post, Kevon Looney makes “Wow!” plays on a regular basis, Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton have proven themselves capable of big games. And Norman Powell is just playing lights out right now. This is a team that could beat SMU by 20. Or go 10 minutes without a bucket in the second half and fade into obscurity.
Q: Oregon gets an #8 seed and has to play Oklahoma State in Omaha. Did the Ducks get screwed?
AM: Given the lack of any truly notable wins on their non-conference slate, the Ducks’ relatively strong finish to the season in a weak Pac-12 shouldn’t really hold much sway. And it didn’t. But the fact that they’ve got to go to Big 12 country to play a Cowboys team that really didn’t do a whole lot to earn much good favor can’t sit well either.
AB: They got the favorable seed but the unfavorable location. Is that getting screwed? Maybe a little bit. But ultimately the Ducks are the lowest rated #8 seed by KenPom standards and those usually mean something. According to those ratings, the Ducks are the 46th best team in the country. Other #8 seeds rate 38th, 34th, and 27th. Oregon is in fact the lowest rated single-digit seed in the field. I suppose that means the Ducks are over-seeded. Maybe Oregon kinda screwed itself?
The Ducks got a favorable seed in an unfavorable location. (Michael Arellano/Emerald)
Q: Arizona and Wisconsin seem set on a collision course for another regional final. What matchup in the West region could ruin that rematch?
AB: The two teams that I think pose some of the greatest threats to this rematch are North Carolina and Baylor. I’ll also note that D’Angelo Russell is terrifying in a win-or-go-home scenario. But the Tar Heels can absolutely play with anyone. They’ve just beaten Virginia and have the athletes that could really make things difficult for the Badgers. On the other side of the bracket, I think that the Baylor zone could cause some issues for Arizona. We recently saw what an effective zone did to the Arizona offense as UCLA demonstrated the schematic. Additionally, Baylor is the second best offensive rebounding team in the nation while Arizona is the best defensive rebounding team in the country. Something’s got to give and Baylor has the athletes to play with the ‘Cats. That said, I’ll just leave this here: Scott Drew.
AM: Right, it should come as no surprise that the #3 and #4 seeds are the biggest challengers to the #1 and #2, but I don’t particularly like those matchups for Baylor and North Carolina. So, going off the radar a bit, I’m going to say that the biggest challenges to Wisconsin and Arizona will come over the weekend. Last year, Oregon (an admittedly different roster) showed an ability to take Wisconsin right down to the wire (in Milwaukee). Meanwhile, Ohio State head coach Thad Matta has beaten Sean Miller-coached teams twice in the NCAA Tournament. And Oregon and Ohio State both have the added benefit of outright stars who, if they get hot enough, could burn the favorites.
Q: Utah’s slow fade to end the season bumps them down to a #5. Do the Utes have a Sweet Sixteen run in them?
AB: I think so? We can’t quantify it but there is most certainly something missing from this team when it comes to close games. They’re 5-13 in the last two years in games decided by six points or fewer. Games like that have a tendency to happen in the NCAAs. But their first round game will be in Portland, which should offer a semblance of familiarity. Now this is a helpful proposition in that Stephen F. Austin is the third-highest rated double-digit seed, per KenPom. They rank 35th nationally. Utah most definitely has the pieces to play into the second weekend, but the real question hinges on whether they’ve got anything left in the tank.
AM: Let’s start by saying thatI love Delon Wright. He does just about everything well on the basketball court. Around him there are a ton of talented players: freshman center Jakob Poeltl, junior wing Jordan Loveridge, junior guard Brandon Taylor and freshman Brekkot Chapman, just to pick a few. But there’s just something that isn’t clicking here, and maybe part of it is because other than Wright each of these guys has a gaping hole in his game. Poeltl is talented but raw and struggles mightily from the line. Loveridge is hitting 42 percent from three, but he spends far too much time floating around the perimeter for a strong forward. Taylor is a 5’10” (supposedly) shooting guard. And Chapman simply lacks experience and makes too many mistakes. If their talent can overwhelm opponents early, they’re fine. But down the stretch of close games, those holes can and have been exploited. So, um, yeah, I guess you need an answer. My guess is Stephen F. Austin puts them out of their misery right away, extending Utah’s record of failure in close games.
Andrew Murawa Likes Basketball.
