Nebraska: What Happened and What’s Next?
Posted by Alex Moscoso on March 4th, 2015The buzzer sounded at Value City Arena in Columbus last Thursday as Nebraska suffered an embarrassing 24-point loss to Ohio State. It was the Cornhuskers’ sixth straight loss — sinking their record to 5-11 in the Big Ten and 13-15 overall — and the margin served to emphasize the altogether deflating season it has been. It wasn’t supposed to be like this for Tim Miles in his third year as the head coach in Lincoln. Nebraska was the surprise of the league last year when it went 11-7 in Big Ten play and made it to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 15 years. Backed by an administration finally willing to invest in its basketball program, Miles had the program trending upward and there was no reason to believe that this season wouldn’t be just as successful. The returns of Terran Petteway (the team’s leading scorer and a Big Ten First Teamer), Shavon Shields (second-leading scorer) and much of their supporting cast promulgated chatter about a deep NCAA Tournament run. With this season’s losing record, however, Miles will instead have to figure out what went wrong and how to move forward.
Without much of supporting cast, Terran Pettaway’s efficiency numbers have taken a hit. (NU Media)
What went so wrong this season? Put simply, the Nebraska offense that last year was just good enough to get into the NCAA Tournament (107.7 – 112th nationally) has sunk to one of the worst in the country with an adjusted offensive rating 95.7 (297th). Breakout star Petteway still takes a plurality of the team’s shots (34%) and scores most of the points (17.9 PPG) but his offensive rating has dropped to a 94.2 after last season’s 102.4. Some of the factors contributing to this decline are that Nebraska turns the ball over more often (+3.0%), shoots worse from the behind the arc (-4.5%), and hardly ever gets to the line. But probably the most staggering difference from last season is the dropoff in production from the Cornhuskers’ supporting cast. As of right now, the duo of Petteway and Shields tallies 53.5 percent of all the team’s points per game; last year, they scored 46.3 percent of Nebraska’s total points. Last year’s third- and fourth-leading scorers, Walter Pitchford and Ray Gallegos, averaged 9.3 and 7.3 PPG, respectively — this year, the third- and fourth-leading scorers contribute 7.5 and 4.5 PPG. This vanishing of the Corhnhuskers’ supporting cast has torpedoed an already-middling offense into a woeful one.
While this season has struck a major blow to Nebraska’s grand plan of building a competitive Big Ten program, it’s not necessarily a fatal one. Although it won’t happen this month, Miles can still find the trajectory that his team was on at the end of last season. The first offseason issue to tackle is to ensure that both Petteway and Shields return for their senior seasons. While Petteway was once considered a bone fide pro prospect, he’s not currently listed on any of the major mock draft boards. Both players should be back. Next, Miles must evaluate his roster to determine if it makes sense for some players to seek opportunities elsewhere. Players like Tai Webster — who at one time had so much promise — may be amenable to seeking a new start. Such a move would open up playing time for incoming point guard Glynn Watson, a top-100 recruit and natural distributor with the pedigree (Demetri McCamey’s younger brother) to be a force in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers are in desperate need of a lead guard capable of running the offense, a notion that becomes readily apparent when you realize Petteway and Shields are also the top two assists leaders on the team.
Even if the point guard issue is resolved next season, Miles is going to have to also reexamine his offensive philosophy. Other Big Ten coaches have clearly caught on to what Nebraska is doing and have absolutely put the skids on its production. As Dan Dakich has stated repeatedly, the Big Ten, with its many highly-regarded coaches, is the most well-scouted league in the country. The Cornhuskers’ head coach will have to remedy this problem either with a new strategy or make a change on his staff and bring in someone with some fresh and new ideas. Miles has long been considered an up-and-coming coach, but the Big Ten is the murderers’ row of coaching talent and has claimed the scalps of many other well-respected coaches. If Miles doesn’t want to be the latest victim, an offensive overhaul is needed.
