Marching to Vegas: On Dana Altman’s Young Ducks
Posted by Adam Butler on February 27th, 2015Adam Butler (@pachoopsab) of Pachoops will again be joining us all year, providing us with his weekly take on our favorite conference as we begin the March to Vegas.
On two separate occasions this year, Sean Miller has noted the work of Dana Altman. In December he said Altman was the Coach of the Year and this week he “marveled” at Altman’s work. The praise is warranted. Altman’s team projects to make its third consecutive NCAA Tournament despite 10 newcomers and a tumultuous offseason. One of my favorite Altman facts – which notably does not pertain to this season – is that in back-to-back years (2013 and 2014) he coached the 10th-best defense followed by the 11th-best offense. The fact alone is impressive enough on its own, and then you consider his coaching adjustments for the well-documented personnel turnover, and everything really begins to make sense. In 2015, his Oregon team was meant to fly under the radar. And perhaps they have. It’s not often we heap our focus on a volume shooter and a bunch of freshmen who were 5-4 at the turn of conference play. But it’s time we really start paying attention. The Ducks certainly got Utah’s attention and as they head to The Farm this weekend for what seems to be a Dance-or-die battle with the Cardinal, it’s probably worth understanding just what makes these Ducks tick.
Dana Altman’s Ability To Get The Most Out of New Faces Is Nearly Unparalleled. (Alex Brandon/AP)
If we’re to do so in a word, the most appropriate one would be: YOUNG. You guys, it’s a pun. Because this team runs four young freshmen as supplemental parts to the Joseph Young scoring machine. Double meaning. Let’s begin our conversation focusing on the former. Dillon Brooks, Jordan Bell, Casey Benson and Ahmaad Rorie have been more than a pleasant surprise for Altman. But the interesting case is that – after four years of consistent turnover and seemingly brand new rosters – is this really a surprise? This was the 22nd-best class in America, according to Scout.com, and the fourth-best in the Pac-12. Impressive but not overwhelming. Florida had the 11th-best class and the Gators stink. So too does USC (12th-best class) and Michigan (16th), and Missouri (19th). Now look at how this group stacks up against qualifying freshmen in the Pac-12 with regards to Offensive Rating:
The only thing separating the ducklings from being the top four freshmen in the conference (by offensive efficiency) are three projected first-rounders. Solid company. There’s naturally something to be said for opportunity; these freshmen had the unique circumstance of being part of 10 newbies and would be given the chance to play larger roles than other freshmen. But opportunity doesn’t necessarily mean success, which is why Sean Miller has had such high praise for Dana’s work. They are critical to the nation’s 21st-most efficient offense (noting this before we get to its most critical piece). Brooks has a usage rate of 23.6 percent and an offensive rating of 105.5. Do you want to know who else is operating at similar 106/24%, ORtg/Usage? Norman Powell (105.5/23.7%), Brandon Ashley (106.6/21.6%), and the departed Robert Upshaw (106.7/22.5%). Speaking of Upshaw, Jordan Bell – all 6’7″ of him – has the 21st-highest block rate in the nation. Best in the Pac-12 (after Upshaw).
Now bringing us to the other part of our Young pun, the most important piece of this roster – Altman excluded – is Joseph Young. You know this. He’s been terrific since being granted immediate eligibility at Oregon and particularly since the calendar turned to February (or really January 30, but who’s counting?):
Young’s home stretch numbers are 32 percent (points), 19 percent (rebounds), and 69 percent (assists) better than his season averages (which are impressive in their own right). We won’t begrudge him his consistent levels of theft because all we ever really want is a senior to show up in crunch time. He scored 25 on 10-of-20 shooting in this week’s critical win at Cal. Do you realize how difficult road wins are to capture in the Pac-12? The conference has the highest home winning percentage among all conferences. And with the NCAA Tournament committee keeping a keen eye on the Ducks and looking for excuses to exclude them from the field, Exhibit A at Cal was a sound demonstration as to why to include them. Joe Young was a monster part of that. And he’ll be even more critical on Sunday afternoon at Stanford. Young vs. Randle, Senior vs. Senior, for an invitation to the biggest stage in sports (March hyperbole setting in).
So stepping back from the granular view of hot streaks and freshman leaderboards, there’s a consistent piece to all of this. Because when measuring, we need to have a constant. Something seemingly invariable by which our standard can be set. As it were, the variability of Oregon’s basketball roster is increasingly a moot point. Dana Altman is the only piece of the winning puzzle to have been there for each of their NCAA Tournament appearances. The season is of course far from over. The Ducks have two challenging road games remaining. Looming are the equally desperate Cardinal and a Civil War rematch which they’ve already lost once this year. As noted, the road is tough Pac-12. But so too are the Ducks. So much so that they’ve impressed Sean Miller. Next it’ll just be a matter of impressing the Tournament committee.
