Atlantic Sun Race Interesting Even Without Cinderella
Posted by Tommy Lemoine on January 16th, 2015Dunk City’s Sweet Sixteen run, Mercer’s post-victory Nae Nae dance… I don’t have to explain – you already know the Atlantic Sun’s recent March achievements. The conference has produced arguably the NCAA Tournament’s most iconic moments for each of the past two seasons, enormous upsets featuring even larger personalities. Yet it’s also endured some serious change since the Bears knocked off Duke last spring, and almost none of it has been good. Both Mercer and East Tennessee State, traditionally two of the league’s best programs, bolted for the Southern Conference and no other team has stepped in to fill the void. With just eight teams remaining – one of which (Northern Kentucky) remains NCAA Tournament-ineligible until 2016 – the question now becomes whether the depleted conference has a team even remotely capable of crashing the Dance. The answer to that probably lies somewhere between “unlikely” and “maybe,” although the A-Sun showed moments of promise during non-conference play. As for the race to get there? With Florida Gulf Coast looking vulnerable and a pair of challengers on the rise, the next two months should be better than expected.
The Atlantic Sun race will be better than expected this season. (Naples Daily News)
North Florida made something of a statement on Wednesday night. After switching to zone and overcoming an early deficit against Florida Gulf Coast, the Ospreys turned a flurry of threes and several key steals into a 16-2 second half run that put the Eagles away for good – the team’s first victory over its avian foe since 2012. “We talked before the game there would be obstacles and adversity and all those kinds of things, and you’ve just got to fight your way through it,” head coach Matthew Driscoll said afterward. “And they did.” Not only was it a blowout victory over the league’s overwhelming favorite, but the result propelled North Florida ahead of its rival in KenPom for the first time all season. While that may seem insignificant – sure, odd results and blowout wins/losses can skew rankings – it’s important to keep in mind that the Ospreys have climbed almost 100 spots since the season began. Driscoll’s three-point heavy attack, led by reigning Atlantic Sun Freshman of the Year, Dallas Moore (27 points on Wednesday), has been reliably explosive through the first couple months and very difficult to beat when shots are falling. In fact, UNF has a chance to become the most efficient offensive unit the conference has seen since Belmont left in 2012. Yet the Ospreys aren’t alone in their emergence as a legitimate challenger to FGCU. USC Upstate – which lost two of its top three scorers and rebounders, including all-conference forward Torrey Craig – has also managed to drastically improve on its preseason metrics. Despite their offensive production taking a dip, the combination of guard-heavy lineups and Eddie Payne’s match-up zone has enabled the Spartans to force turnovers in bunches (12th highest rate in America) and markedly improve their defense from a year ago. That improvement has manifested itself in 13-5 record and the conference’s highest overall ranking (#148) – also nearly 100 spots higher than where it began the year. What does that mean for Dunk City? Even with Brett Comer (11.2 PPG, 7.0 APG) and Bernard Thompson (14.4 PPG) in tow – one of college basketball’s most productive backcourts – the Eagles’ run at the league title will be much more difficult than figured.
But let’s get down to brass tacks, because the Atlantic Sun has a reputation to uphold: Can any of these three teams make some noise in March? If given the right match-up, sure. Comer and Thompson were key members of that Sweet Sixteen squad and have enough talent around them, including former Marquette forward Jamail Jones, for their squad to compete with high-majors. USC Upstate is led by three senior guards and their zone causes fits. North Florida has impressive interior size and can hang with teams if it heats up from the perimeter. And consider the weekend of December 6-7: in a two-day span, the Spartans forced 17 turnovers and won at Georgia Tech; the Ospreys nailed 10 threes and won at Purdue; and the Eagles made easy work of UMass in a quasi-road contest. It’s obvious that these teams are at least capable of overcoming large gaps in talent.
Unfortunately each squad also has its share of problems. Florida Gulf Coast has hit an offensive rut in recent weeks, punctuated by several high-turnover, poor-shooting performances. USC-Upstate is awful from the free throw line, going 6-of-20 in its two-point loss at Lipscomb on Tuesday night. And North Florida is not great defensively, lacks depth and struggles as a team when it misfires from the outside. Perhaps most importantly, the league’s eventual NCAA Tournament representative may be hard-pressed to earn a good enough seed to actually put a scare into anyone. The Spartans, whose RPI (#174) is second only to FGCU’s (#169), were projected as a #16 seed in Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracketology, while the Eagles came in as a #15 seed at CBS Sports. With the Atlantic Sun being as weak as it is this season, those RPIs will only continue falling as the season presses on, likely making a #15 seed the best possible scenario for whichever team wins the conference tournament. Of course, the Eagles made their magical run as a #15 seed two years ago, but none of this year’s contenders seem balanced enough (as things stand) to compete with a #1 or #2 seed.
Regardless of which team claims the conference’s bid – whether it’s FGCU, North Florida, USC-Upstate or even a darkhorse like Lipscomb – and despite the postseason outlook, one thing is abundantly clear: The Atlantic Sun may be short on teams, but it’s definitely long on competition.
