N.C. State Learning to Live Without T.J. Warren
Posted by Brad Jenkins (@bradjenk) on November 24th, 2014Coming into the 2014-15 season, N.C. State’s biggest issue was to replace the scoring of T.J. Warren, last year’s ACC Player of the Year. With four games now under their belt, the Wolfpack are starting to give us some clues as to how they are going to try and compensate for the almost 25 points per game that Warren put up last year. A look at how Mark Gottfried and the N.C. State administration set up this season’s early schedule reveals a distinct plan of starting cautiously but challenging this young team afterwards. The first three contests were all against teams not in the nation’s top-250 and, as expected, the Wolfpack won each comfortably. On Sunday night, South Florida proved much more of a challenge in the season’s fourth game, as N.C. State led by around six to eight points for most of the way but had to survive a potential game-tying three at the buzzer to hold off the Bulls, 68-65.
N.C. State’s Trevor Lacey has led the Wolfpack with good all-around play.
(Ethan Hyman/newsobserver)
Now the schedule really toughens as even before January the Wolfpack will face eight non-conference opponents that are currently ranked in KenPom’s top 90. Ironically, the only one that’s not in that highly rated group is Charleston Southern (#191) who somehow is #65 currently in the RPI. Of course that points out the ridiculousness that the RPI is still the primary metric that the NCAA Selection Committee uses to sort teams. Any system that at any point of the season has Charleston Southern ahead of Wisconsin (RPI #71) is a joke. But let’s get back to N.C. State and how they are compensating without T.J. Warren around.
Even though he plays a different position, newcomer Trevor Lacey, a 6’3″ Alabama transfer junior, has been the primary recipient of Warren’s minutes. In this year’s starting lineup, Lacey joins senior Ralston Turner in a two-wing guard perimeter set that works with returning starting point guard sophomore Anthony “Cat” Barber. Lacey leads the team in scoring so far at 16 points per game, and was the primary offensive force on Sunday, with a game high 21 points. In addition to scoring, he is helping out in other phases as well. Currently, Lacey is second on the team this year in both rebounding (6.8) and assists (3.2) per game. And finally, he is displaying leadership for a young team when things get tough on the court. In Sunday’s post game press conference Gottfried said, “Trevor kind of calms us down” when talking about his role on the squad.
Another place the Wolfpack can improve on over last year is in the paint. Last season the post rotation consisted of senior Jordan Vandenberg and three freshmen — Kyle Washington, BeeJay Anya, and Lennard Freeman. That quartet combined for only 15.5 points and 16.4 boards per contest, so it’s critical that N.C. State gets more front court production this year without Warren around. This year, talented freshman Abdul-Malik Abu replaces Vandenberg, and the other three all return with a year of ACC competition under their belts. So far, so good, as this year’s inside foursome is averaging 20.8 points and 23.8 rebounds combined per outing, albeit against less than stellar competition. With the high level of opponents coming up, we should know before January if this group of post players has what it takes to produce in ACC play.
Perhaps N.C. State can make up for Warren’s loss in another way as well. The offense is bound to have some drop-off after losing a high usage, yet highly efficient scorer of that caliber, but maybe the defense can pick up the slack. The key to that starts with Anya protecting the rim. Now listed at 6’9″ and 295 pounds, he’s lost approximately 60 pounds since enrolling at school last fall, and his play and stamina are much improved. Blessed with a 7’9″ wingspan, Anya is blocking shots at an alarming rate, with 4.8 rejections per game. Against South Florida, he blocked five and contested many others, which helped harass the Bulls’ leading scorer, 6’8″ Chris Perry into a 4-of-13 shooting day. Perry’s 10 point output was nine under his average coming in to the game. N.C. State is also quicker and tougher on the perimeter this year, so maybe that will translate into better defense on the ball. In support of the starters, freshman Caleb Martin flashed quick feet and active hands on Sunday, and at 6’6″ gives Gottfried a taller option to use to matchup with opposing wing scorers. Of course, Gottfried has never been known for producing top-level defenses, so this is still a question mark for now.
We could get an even better read on N.C. State’s ability to adjust to life without T.J. Warren as early as this week. Up next are two home games against pretty good programs, Richmond (Wednesday) and Boise State (Friday).
