SEC Season Preview: Missouri Tigers
Posted by Greg Mitchell (@gregpmitchell) on November 11th, 2014The SEC microsite will preview each of the league teams over the next week, continuing today with Missouri.
Missouri Tigers
Strengths. A fresh start with a familiar face. Frank Haith produced three draft picks over the last two years (Phil Pressey, Alex Oriakhi, Jordan Clarkson), two first team All-SEC players (Pressey, Jabari Brown), and two second team All-SEC players (Clarkson, Laurence Bowers). But all this talent resulted in only one NCAA tournament appearance: an uninspiring second round loss to Colorado State in 2012-13. Missouri never seemed to play up to its potential after a magical first season under Haith, and the defense often looked disjointed. His three-year tenure was also marked with fallout from the Miami NCAA investigation. It’s not that Haith did a bad job in Columbia, it’s just that the program didn’t seem to be trending in the right direction and the fanbase wasn’t exactly crushed when he left for Tulsa after last season. Enter Kim Anderson, the former Missouri player who spent 11 years as an assistant coach under Norm Stewart, and is coming off a 12-year stint at Central Missouri that culminated in a Division II national championship. It might take time for Anderson to readjust to the Division I level, but his hire has created excitement among the fanbase, and along with six newcomers on the court, provides Missouri with a fresh start.
Jonathan Williams is looking to take a big step forward in his sophomore season. (columbiamissourian.com)
Weaknesses. Scoring. Two numbers highlighted by the Columbia Tribune’s Steve Walentik speak for themselves: the Tigers are replacing 78 percent of their scoring from last season and Jonathan Williams is their leading returning scorer at just 5.8 points per game. To be fair, there weren’t a lot of scoring opportunities for players other than Clarkson, Brown, and Earnest Ross last year. Still, points will have to come from somewhere. Williams and Wes Clark should improve on their freshmen seasons, and Baylor transfer Deuce Bello has a chance to play a big role in the backcourt. The same can be said for Hawaii graduate transfer Keith Shamburger, but he figures to be more of a distributor than scorer. Freshman forward and late signee Montaque “Teki” Gill-Caesar has picked up rave reviews over the summer, and Jakeenan Gant and Namon Wright are top-100 Haith recruits that Anderson was able to hang on to. Despite the upside there are a lot of offensive question marks. Williams and Clark didn’t show the potential to be primary scoring threats in their first years, and Bello was just a role player during his two seasons in Waco. The other three players are just freshmen, and as a whole it doesn’t seem like there is much three-point shooting ability on the roster.
Toughest Non-Conference Test. The Kim Anderson era kicks off with a beast of a non-conference schedule. The Tigers get Arizona just four games into the season in the Maui Invitational. Sunshine and beaches are fun, but facing all the talent Sean Miller has amassed is not. Missouri also faces old Big 12 rival Oklahoma in Norman on December 5, and has a three-game stretch that features a home game against Xavier and neutral site games against Illinois and Oklahoma State.
Toughest Conference Stretch. From January 13 to January 29 the Tigers face Kentucky twice and head to Reed Arena to play Texas A&M in a place they have struggled in recent years. What could make this early conference stretch trickier is that Missouri could already be saddled with as many as five non-conference losses. Similar struggles against a decent early SEC slate could mean Anderson will have to try hard to keep his team upbeat before the calendar turns to February.
Projected Starters:
- PG Keith Shamburger (5’11’’)
- PG Wes Clark (6’0’’)
- SF Montaque Gill-Caesar (6’6’’)
- PF Jonathan Williams (6’9’’)
- C Ryan Rosburg (6’10’’)
Shamburger led the Big West in assists and took only six shots per game last season, but may need to revert to the player he was in his two seasons at San Jose State, where he looked to score more (11.1 shots per game). Clark often looked hurried with the ball in his freshman season, but will be counted on to take a big step forward. Gill-Caesar is a physical wing that Missouri picked up after he reclassified and Anderson added his prep school coach, Rob Fulford, to the coaching staff. He’ll likely assume heavy offensive responsibility right off the bat. Williams flashed big-time rebounding potential last year (14.4 percent total rebounding rate) and provided immediate help as a rim-protecting role player (7.1 percent block rate). Anderson will need him to develop into a well-rounded player for Missouri compete this season. Rosburg took a big step forward last season but had turnover and fouling problems (3rd most fouls in the SEC).
Projected Bench:
- PG Tramaine Isabell (6’0’’)
- SG Deuce Bello (6’4’’)
- SG Namon Wright (6’5’’)
- SF D’Angelo Allen (6’7’’)
- PF Jakeenan Gant (6’8’’)
- C Keanau Post (6’11’’)
Bello will try to capitalize on the talent that made him a Rivals four-star recruit in the class of 2011. If nothing else, he should be a high-energy defender off the bench. Allen also profiles as a high energy, defense-first player in his freshman year. Wright should have plenty of opportunities to score given Missouri’s unsettled offensive situation. Gant was Georgia’s Mr. Basketball and might get pressed into duty if Rosburg repeats his foul trouble issues, and that might not be a bad thing given Gant’s talent. Post often looked overmatch coming in as a JuCo transfer in 2013-14, but is a load on the block and did play better down the stretch (26 of his 44 total points were scored in March).
Kim Anderson’s first roster at Missouri is talented but unproven. (stlamerican.com)
If Everything Goes Right… Anderson, like his mentor Stewart, comes to Missouri with a reputation of building tough, high-energy teams. The Tigers’ roster is filled with newcomers and guys trying to establish themselves, which could be a perfect group to buy into that type of approach. The cupboard is also not empty from a talent-perspective, and some of that credit must go to Haith. Clark and Williams got experience in a short rotation last season and might be able to develop into reliable centerpieces. Gill-Caesar and Gant are talented enough that they should both be able to score right away. If everything clicks into place and the Tigers find a consistent source of offense a second consecutive NIT bid is possible, which would be an accomplishment in Anderson’s first year.
If Nothing Goes Right… I feel like I’ve mentioned Missouri’s offensive question mark in every sentence of this preview. Redundancy aside, it’s simply an issue that must be addressed. Clark and Williams are the de facto leaders of the team, and while talented players, neither showed the ability to be a go-to scorer last season. That isn’t to say both can’t develop into such a player, but it’s asking a lot to put that responsibility on two sophomores. It’s also unreasonable to ask freshmen like Gill-Caesar and Gant to come in and be the focal point of the offense from day one. Missouri has talent and is deeper than many may think, but its young unproven roster will be headed to a below .500 conference record with no postseason appearance if everything doesn’t click.
