Addition by Subtraction: Tracy Abrams’ Injury Could Propel Illinois to the NCAA Tournament
Posted by Deepak Jayanti (@dee_b1g) on November 11th, 2014Watching a senior point guard go down with a season-ending injury before his final year is always painful. Years of experience accumulate into something of a valuable commodity. Senior guards going up against younger hot-shots during conference season is a perennial story to watch year in and year out. Illinois‘ Tracy Abrams could have been that that guard but his absence this season may actually help Illinois settle on a more effective rotation because Abrams’ minutes can be passed onto incoming transfer guards, Ahmad Starks and Aaron Cosby. While John Groce could rely on Abrams to run the team because he can trust his senior guard after two full seasons in Champaign, his offense should benefit with quicker, potentially more talented, guards such as the incoming transfers. The concept of “addition by subtraction” matters for teams that are on the cusp of making it into the NCAA Tournament with a few minor tweaks to the personnel. Illinois was a bubble team last year and Abrams’ loss combined with the infusion of new talent may just be enough to push them into the top five or six teams in conference.
Tracy Abrams’ loss may actually help the Illini this season.
(Stephen Haas, Lee News Service)
Before understanding how Abrams’ loss helps this season, it is crucial to understand the Illini’s key weakness from last season: long-range shooting. They shot 30.4% from the long-range, ranking tenth in the conference. Shooting from beyond the arc is not Abrams’ strength but that didn’t prevent him from hoisting 111 attempts and only making 27% of them. Pulling up from from the top of the key during crucial possessions in the second half was one of the worst traits of his game. He quickly gave up pushing the ball into the paint which resulted in a horrible free-throw rate — the Illini ranked dead last in the league averaging only 30.6% of free throw attempts per field goal attempts. Groce could count on Abrams to be calm during crunch time but his shot selection was questionable at best. Take these negatives out of the equation and add two excellent shooters, Starks and Cosby. Both Starks and Cosby shot 40% from beyond the arc at Oregon State and Seton Hall respectively and they will certainly boost the Illini offense that is desperate for outside shooting.
The rotations will also be smoother without Abrams because both of the incoming guards should play at least 20-25 minutes a game which should help them get into a rhythm before starting conference play. Groce would have been obligated to play Abrams during the first six weeks of the year which wouldn’t have helped the new guards get into the flow of the offense. Being thrown into the thick of things may be tough for Starks but it is a trade-off that should pay off eventually because the Illini could peak in February instead of in January — a trend over the past two seasons that hurt them in March. Forget the new backcourt, Groce could experiment with a three-guard lineup by adding Kendrick Nunn to complement the transfers. Three guards that can handle the ball and shoot from the outside will be a huge asset. To push the tempo, Groce needs multiple guards that can run the floor without turning the ball over but he doesn’t need a true point guard to implement an offense with fluid ball movement. He has that finally in the third season in Champaign, unfortunately, at the expense of Abrams’ injury but it may help the Illini get back into the postseason.
