Pac-12 POY and FrOY Odds After One MonthPosted by Andrew Murawa (@AMurawa) on December 11th, 2013
We’re a month into the season, something basically approaching the quarter-pole of the year. Let’s take a little time over the next couple days to recount what we’ve seen so far and prognosticate a bit about the rest of this year’s race. We begin with setting odds for both Pac-12 Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year.
Player of the Year Odds
- Jahii Carson, Sophomore, Arizona State; Odds 4-1 – Let’s be honest: as good as Allen Crabbe was last season for Cal, it is sort of a crime that he won the conference POY award over Carson. So, with that in the back of voter’s minds, if it is even close come March, give Carson the benefit of the doubt. He’s struggled lately in part due to an ankle injury (he’s still averaging better than 20 points per game, however), but he is a singular talent in the conference, capable of scoring almost at will while still keeping his teammates involved. If ASU is going to make the NCAA Tournament, it is going to be because Carson was transcendent. And luckily for Herb Sendek, Carson is more than capable of transcendence.
- Joseph Young, Junior, Oregon; Odds 5-1– Twenty points per game, sparkling shooting percentages across the board, an offensive efficiency rating through the roof, a surprising commitment to defensive intensity, and a quiet leadership on a squad littered with newcomers. If the Ducks are in the mix for the Pac-12 title, Young will be a big reason why.
- Kyle Anderson, Sophomore, UCLA; Odds 6-1 – The most versatile player in the conference, Anderson is also one of the most exciting. A visionary passer, strong rebounder, capable scorer and a team leader, if Anderson continues to average something in the neighborhood of 13 points, nine boards and seven assists, he’ll be in the conversation for sure.
- Spencer Dinwiddie, Junior, Colorado; Odds 7-1 – The Mayor may be flying under the radar so far, with his usage dialed back a bit as the frontcourt begins to pick up the slack. But he’s still the Buffaloes’ go-to scorer in the crunch, adept at getting to the line, and knocking down shots once there. His scoring will pick up as the season goes on, and if the Buffaloes are in the hunt, Dinwiddie will get plenty of attention.
- Roberto Nelson, Senior, Oregon State; Odds 15-1 – Nelson leads the conference in scoring so far and is a good bet to continue to do so, but his Beavers aren’t expected to be in contention at any point. He may wind up being a lock for the all-conference team (especially with the Pac-12 picking something like 18 guys for the first team), but he’s a significant longshot to win the conference POY.
- Brandon Ashley, Aaron Gordon, Nick Johnson, T.J. McConnell, Arizona; Odds for any one of these guys: 20-1 – There is little doubt that some of these Wildcats are seriously talented individuals, but there is so much depth and balance on the roster that it is unlikely that any one of these guys will stand out enough to win the premier individual honor in the conference.
- Field: Odds: 20-1. Who knows? Maybe somebody like Mike Moser, Jordan Adams, Dwight Powell or Jabari Bird breaks out from the rest of the pack.
Freshman of the Year Odds:
- Aaron Gordon, Arizona; Odds 5-4 – The common storyline is that Gordon is one of those handful of elite freshmen in the country (Wiggins, Parker, Randle, et al.). That is going to be an awfully hard thing for any other freshman in this conference to overcome. Especially because, you know, Gordon is really, really good. If things continue to go well for the ‘Cats and if Gordon continues to make spectacular plays on the regular, he’s a big favorite here.
- Zach LaVine, UCLA; Odds 6-1 – LaVine has proven himself plenty capable of regularly putting up highlights as well. And where Gordon may not have a real good chance to average much more than the 12 points he’s currently putting up, LaVine has shown his potential for big scoring nights in a potent offense. If UCLA’s right there with Arizona at the end of the year and LaVine is averaging 16 to 18 points per game in conference play, that kind of equation could be good enough to win the award.
- Jabari Bird, California; Odds 18-1 – What’s that, Mr. Bird? You’ve been known to put up highlights of your own? And your best scoring days are in front of your as well? That’s for certain, but perhaps the Golden Bears won’t be enough of a championship contender to keep his name in the Pac-12 news.
- Field; Odds: 50-1 – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Nigel Williams-Goss, Que Johnson? All good players, certainly. It would be a major upset if any one of these guys earned FrOY honors, though.