Big Ten Team Previews: Michigan State Spartans
Posted by Deepak Jayanti on October 29th, 2012Throughout the preseason, the Big Ten microsite will be rolling out the featured breakdowns of each of the 12 league schools. Today’s release is the Michigan State Spartans.
Where We Left Off: Tom Izzo’s Spartans were poised for another postseason run last March but their plans took a hit when guard Branden Dawson went down with an ACL injury. Dawson injured his left knee against Ohio State on March 4 meaning that the Spartans had lost their best defender for rest of the season. Nonetheless, State finished conference play with a 13-5 record and beat Ohio State a week later to secure the Big Ten Tournament title. Izzo was able to regroup his team after the injury but they fell short in the Sweet Sixteen against Rick Pitino’s Louisville squad on its way to the Final Four. The Spartans struggled to find consistent offense during the second weekend of the postseason and finished with an overall record of 29-8. Even though MSU fans expect nothing less than a Final Four every March, Draymond Green’s final season should be considered an overall success.
Is Keith Appling ready to step in and fill the void Draymond Green will leave behind? (AP Photo)
Positives: Despite losing Green, Izzo has several players returning who understand his system and logged significant minutes last season. Forwards Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne will be excellent in the paint together and will cause match-up problems with other contenders such as Indiana and Michigan. Both players have a diverse array of post moves and can get key big men such as Cody Zeller and Jordan Morgan in foul trouble. Izzo’s teams are known to be tough on the glass and as such they ranked second in the Big Ten in rebounding last year (36% OR). The backcourt consists of an experienced Keith Appling (who averaged 11.8 PPG in 30.8 MPG last season) and sophomore Travis Trice, who has a really nice touch from the beyond the arc (evident in his 40.5% 3FG shooting). Freshman guard Gary Harris is one of the top 50 incoming recruits this year and he has the size at 6’4″ and 205 lbs. to become an excellent defender for Tom Izzo. If Dawson is back to 100% game shape by January, it will only add more depth to what appears to be a very tough, defensive minded, typical Tom Izzo team.
Negatives: Speaking of Dawson, he is an absolute wildcard for the Spartans. If he is not completely healthy this year, the Spartans might not have the experience at the wing position that they need. The freshman Harris certainly has the talent, but first-year players don’t always perform consistently especially during the conference season. Without Dawson, the Spartans could struggle matching up defensively against certain opponents until Harris can prove that he is ready for prime time. Another key issue will be consistent production on the offensive end. Green’s 16.2 PPG will need to be replaced and a handful of players must fill that void because this team does not have a true scorer who will can deliver regularly in the clutch. Appling needs to improve his jumper after shooting only 25% from beyond the arc last season in 96 attempts. Harris is expected to contribute offensively but the backcourt will need to pick up its offensive production especially if Nix or Payne get into foul trouble.
Best Case: Once again, a healthy Dawson that hasn’t lost a step from his freshman season signifies the best case for the Spartans. Dawson could take the first 10-12 games to get back into game shape and Harris could pick up some valuable minutes during that stretch. Everybody is aware of Dawson’s defensive abilities, but he is no slouch on the offensive end either. He averaged 8.4 PPG over just 20.6 MPG last year and possesses enough size at 230 lbs. to be effective in the paint. Dawson averaged about five RPG in just 20 minutes, an impressive per-game tally for a wing. Once healthy, he could play up to 30-32 minutes per game and contribute between 11-12 PPG and 5-6 RPG which will help fill the void left behind by Green. Nix and Payne dominating the paint along with a healthy Dawson is definitely the best case scenario for the Spartans. Overall, even with a healthy team, Spartan fans should not expect a #1-#2 seed in the NCAA tournament this season. Green’s offensive production may be replaced by committee but his intangibles, specifically his leadership skills, will be missed. He was Izzo’s go-to guy last season and was able to keep the team together on the floor during their biggest games. Without him, the Spartans will contend for the Big Ten title, but may not be a lock this year for the Sweet Sixteen or beyond.
Worst Case: Flip the script on Dawson. If he can only play 20-22 MPG for most of the season, the focus will shift to Harris and Appling to pick up the offense in the backcourt. Appling is not a true point guard but he continues to improve his game at that position. Green played some point-forward last season, which then allowed Appling to play off the ball but he won’t have that luxury this year so he needs to keep his overall turnovers under the 2.3 per game he committed last season. Nix has the size to dominate the paint but his conditioning may not let him play for extended minutes. He needs to be on the floor for more than 20 minutes a night to be an effective leader for the Spartans. A worst case scenario involves sporadic offense from the backcourt and a lack of conditioning for Nix which could result in the Spartans trying to find other ways to score consistently to remain competitive in the Big Ten featuring offensively loaded teams such as Michigan and Indiana.
- PG – Keith Appling (Jr)
- SG – Gary Harris (Fr)
- SF – Branden Dawson (So)
- PF – Adreian Payne (Jr)
- PF – Derrick Nix (Sr)
Key Reserves: Travis Trice (PG, So), Brandan Kearney (G, So), Denzel Valentine (G, Fr), Matt Costello (F, Fr), Alex Gauna (F, So)
Lineup: Assuming a healthy Dawson, Izzo has several choices with the rotation. Trice and Kearney provide good depth at the guard position. The freshman class was ranked in the top 25 by Rivals and forward Matt Costello will add more size to the frontcourt. Payne will be the most consistent scorer up front as long as he can stay out of foul trouble. Nix will be tremendously effective while he is on the floor but Costello should learn to back him up over time. Over the last couple of seasons, Izzo had the luxury of All-Americans such as Green and Kalin Lucas to bail his team out when times got tough. Even though the Spartans don’t have a true superstar, they have the depth and will be tough as nails as they hope to improve consistently throughout the season. Spartan fans should hope for a healthy team that will consistently improve over the next few months and ultimately again contend for the Big Ten title. MSU will challenge Indiana, Michigan and Ohio State at home but may not have enough firepower to push very deep into March this time around.
