Big 12 Weekend Primer

Posted by dnspewak on January 21st, 2012

For the second time in less than a week, all eyes will be on the Big 12. Missouri and Baylor, both ranked in the top-five, will square off in Waco on Saturday afternoon in college basketball’s prime matchup. Elsewhere, Oklahoma will look to win its third straight game as it heads to College Station, while Kansas will renew its rivalry with Texas in Austin.

GAME OF THE WEEKEND

  • Missouri at Baylor, Saturday, 1:05 p.m. CT (ESPN)

Baylor Will Look to Celebrate Again When it Hosts Missouri(AP/C. Riedel)

The Ferrell Center will host two top five opponents for the first time on Saturday, and it’s not a stretch to say this may be the most important home game in Baylor history. Now in his ninth season, it’s amazing that Scott Drew has built a program prestigious enough to play a game with this kind of national attention. His Bears have not lost at home this season, and Missouri’s only loss came on the road at Kansas State. The Tigers quieted the critics a bit by winning at Iowa State, but they did not look comfortable in Manhattan and fell out of contention in that game immediately. Kansas State’s physical bigs held Ricardo Ratliffe to just one field goal attempt, forcing him into foul trouble and taking him out of the game entirely. And here’s the bad news for Missouri: The Bears’ big men are even more athletically intimidating. Ratliffe and Steve Moore are the only two scholarship forwards on this Missouri roster, but they’ll have to somehow deal with Perry Jones, Quincy Miller and Quincy Acy, not to mention players like Cory Jefferson and Anthony Jones off the bench. If you’re counting, that’s five players taller than 6’7”, and most of them can dunk like they’re playing with a Fisher Price basket. The Tigers simply cannot compete with that kind of size. Perhaps we’ll see a lot of 2-3 zone out of Frank Haith, something he’s not opposed to doing. In fact, Missouri has zoned opponents on many occasions this season, and it’s been effective at times. The problem is, Baylor has the guards this year to deal with any kind of defense. Brady Heslip can burn teams who pay too much attention to the paint, and Pierre Jackson has changed the entire dynamic of this team with his ballhandling, penetration and passing skills. If Heslip can knock down some shots and Baylor dominates the paint, this game could be over by halftime. However, the Bears have trouble holding on to the ball sometimes, and they also did not play very well defensively in a loss to Kansas on Monday. Also, while Missouri may not have played very well in Manhattan, Waco is hardly the same environment. Yes, it’s an enormous game this weekeend. The crowd will not be weak, not by any means. But they don’t make many places like Bramlage Coliseum, and MU has never played well there. It won in Ames, and it should not be taken lightly on the road at the Ferrell Center.

The key individual matchup is… Missouri’s guards against Baylor’s forwards. Missouri is mismatched with every single team it plays. That’s just what happens when you start four guards. Against Baylor, though, that mismatched is magnified. The Bears start Jones, Acy and Miller on the frontline, and they almost always have three bigs on the floor at the same time. Missouri rarely even has both Ratliffe and Moore in the game at the same time. In fact, it’s be physically impossible for the Tigers to play three forwards unless they inserted walk-on Andy Rosburg or former football player Andrew Jones, and that’s not going to happen. But Missouri has compensated all year for this lack of size. On Saturday, it’ll be especially important for Marcus Denmon to try to take advantage of his favorable matchup with his quickness. It’s also important for the Tigers to rebound well as a team and make up for their lack of size with extra effort and energy on the boards.

Missouri will win if… It makes some threes and forces Baylor to turn the ball over. These Tigers can shoot. We know that. But they normally light up the scoreboard with threes on their home court, so who knows what will happen on the road this weekend. It comes down to confidence and comfort for Haith’s team. When they’re playing freely, scoring in transition and making great passes, the Tigers are very hard to defend. And if you’re not careful, their quick-handed defenders will make your opposing guards uncomfortable. Phil Pressey and Michael Dixon will need to hound Pierre Jackson and A.J. Walton to create some opportunities off turnovers.

Baylor will win if… It exploits Missouri’s lack of size. A lot of this comes down to point guard play, actually. Jackson and Walton have to get the ball to their big men and take care of the basketball. If the Bears throw possessions away and rush their shots, they’ll be doomed. On the other hand, Scott Drew knows Missouri cannot handle his team’s size. The blueprint for Baylor has to be getting Ratliffe in foul trouble and dominating the offensive boards. It’d also be nice if Brady Heslip played a little better than he did on Monday, when Kansas held him to three points.

OTHER GAMES TO WATCH
  • Kansas at Texas, Saturday, 3 PM CT
This contest, which has almost overtaken Missouri/Kansas as a rivalry during the past few seasons, has a different tune to it this year. The Jayhawks are the only undefeated team in the Big 12, but the Longhorns are under .500 with a young group. However, Texas has not lost at home this season, and it did knock off Temple in Austin a few weeks back. Texas doesn’t have much of an answer for Thomas Robinson, but the Jayhawks must deal with J’Covan Brown. The Texas guard appears healthy now after suffering an injury earlier in the month, though he did shoot just 8-28 in a loss to Kansas State this week. It’s hard for Rick Barnes to find another scoring option behind him right now, so it’s up to one of the freshmen or perhaps senior Clint Chapman to step up. Chapman, a senior who has started a handful of games in Big 12 play, scored 11 points against the Wildcats and even shot 7-7 from the line.
  • Oklahoma at Texas A&M, Saturday, 3 PM CT
After an 0-3 start, Oklahoma could actually claim fifth place in the Big 12 with a win on Saturday. For Texas A&M, it’s a different story. The preseason choice to win the Big 12 has lost four of five game to start league play, as the season seems to become more of a disaster with every passing week. Oklahoma is trending the other way after two straight victories under first-year head coach Lon Kruger. The Sooners are getting production out of Cameron Clark after relegating him to the bench, and Steven Pledger has found his groove after a tough start to the month of January. Pledger, Oklahoma’s leading scorer, put up 18 in a win over Kansas State and 17 against Texas Tech this week after shooting below 30% through his first three Big 12 games. The Aggies just need to figure out how to score. They are really struggling on the offensive end, partly because they are a poor outside shooting team with no three-point threats besides Elston Turner. And even he’s shooting just a tad below 40% from beyond the arc.
dnspewak (343 Posts)


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