Ryan Kelly’s Free Throw Epiphany
Posted by KCarpenter on January 9th, 2012Typically, getting to the line is the province of post-up players and guys who slash and drive to the rim. Getting to the free throw line is important (it is one of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors), particularly for players without a consistent three-point shot because it allows them to reach high levels of offensive efficiency. To get the most out of post players’ possessions, it is simply essential for low-post players to get to the line. It’s hard thing to get better at and that’s why Mason Plumlee’s improvement in this area is particularly impressive. Yes, he is still a terrible shot from the line (averaging south of 45% for the past two seasons), but getting to the line is still a great way to increase offensive efficiency, no matter how lousy a shooter. Last season, Plumlee took 93 free throws and made 41 of them. Comparing these figures with his shooting from the field we can calculate (or at least trust Ken Pomeroy to calculate) a Free Throw Rate of 49.2%. This season, he has already taken 83 free throws, made 35, and posted a Free Throw Rate of 74.5%, good for second best in the ACC. This is impressive improvement, but exactly the kind of thing you would hope for with your starting big who is expected to handle an increased share of the offensive load.
What’s much rarer (and much more dangerous) is the combination of a talented three-point shooter who also has the ability to draw contact and get points from the line. A player with that combination of skills is particularly dangerous. This year, Duke is getting that from Ryan Kelly, which is, all things considered totally surprising. Last year, Kelly made 33 of 41 field goals and posted Free Throw Rate of 22.1%. This is a fairly low figure for your typical big, but last season, Kelly largely functioned as a spot-up shooter, taking open shots when available. For a guy with that kind of playing style, 22.1% is fairly standard. Sure, he could drive a little more, but you wouldn’t expect this number to rise too much. This is where Kelly has surprised everyone.
Ryan Kelly Has Gotten Better At Drawing Fouls, As Well As Avoiding Them On Defense
This season, Kelly has already made more than twice the number of free throws he made over the course of the entire past season. For 2011-2012 season, Kelly has made 67 of 81 free throws and has posted a Free Throw Rate of 77.1%, the best mark in the entire Atlantic Coast Conference. The versatile forward is drawing contact and cashing in at over triple the rate of last season. It’s an incredible improvement, and one of the biggest leaps I have ever seen a player make from one season to the next. Less impressively, but nearly as important, Kelly has stopped sending opponents to the line as much as he had in the past, While Kelly got called for 4.2 fouls per 40 minutes last season, this year he has trimmed the number down to 2.8. Whether it was Mike Krzyzewski’s coaching or something that just clicked in Kelly’s head, this new-found free throw-earning, foul-drawing aptitude is an incredible individual achievement as well as a significant boon for the Blue Devils.
With Plumlee’s and Kelly’s conference-best abilities at getting to the line, Duke has an added new and potent dimension to its offensive attack. Of course, the remarkable thing about this season is that it is not just the two forwards who are better at getting to the line. Austin Rivers seems to have an in-born talent for getting to the free throw line and Seth Curry and the rest of Duke’s guards have shown an increased eagerness to attack defenders and draw contact. The end result is that Duke’s Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts has shot through the roof. Last year, the Blue Devils were thoroughly mediocre in this category, posting a rate of 37.4%. This season, that number is up to 51.5%, good for third best in the entire country. For a team, this is a truly remarkable feat and one area where this incarnation of Duke is clearly head and shoulders better than the squads of recent seasons.
