Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court. You can follow him on Twitter @zhayes9.
Next Tuesday marks a crucial day in the college basketball calendar. Not only have final exams been completed and Christmas break is in the rear view mirror, but the soft underbelly of the schedule is also in the past. Pitt battling Notre Dame and Wisconsin traveling to Nebraska are just two of the conference games scheduled for next Tuesday as we officially move beyond the slowest two weeks of the season into a non-stop hoops until early April.
Many questions have been answered during the season’s unofficial first half. Frank Haith wasn’t such a bad hire after all. Baylor can win on the road. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is as lethal as ever. The Pac-12 is worse than even the most cynical projection. The Missouri Valley is the best mid-major league and may receive three bids. The beauty of college basketball is that there’s still so much more to be determined and the conference slate offers the ultimate growing process. Here are some questions I still have for the top contenders. Only the next three months hold the answers.
#1 Syracuse: Last four minutes of a tie game, who responds? The Orange have been fantastic so far, plowing through a relatively benign and home-friendly schedule to climb atop the rankings. In their one nail-biter down the stretch, Kris Joseph displayed an aggression down the stretch that didn’t show up as a junior. Can he maintain that killer instinct into Big East play? Will Scoop Jardine regress into a turnover machine and take poor shots? Will their breadth of inexperienced big men tense up? I’m anxious to see how Syracuse responds to adversity against a talented opponent on the road.
#2 Ohio State: How healthy is Jared Sullinger? A potentially lingering back injury was enough of a concern before suffering a bone bruise in his foot in the opening minutes at South Carolina. How long these injuries nag the near-consensus preseason national player of the year could determine if Ohio State earns their second straight top seed. Ohio State runs so much smoother with Sullinger at full strength. His presence allows Craft, Smith, Buford and Thomas to spread the floor, opening up dribble penetration lanes and preventing double-teams on the Buckeye big man.
#3 Kentucky: How much maturation over the next three months? Kentucky is the most talented team in the nation. Their seven-man rotation is tremendously multi-faceted, versatile and athletic and John Calipari is a master at molding a group of raw players into a cohesive unit. The hourglass never stops, though. There’s a limited amount of time for Cal to work his magic. Terrence Jones can’t check out of games. Marquis Teague has to become more efficient. Anthony Davis must develop some semblance of a low-post game. There’s work to be done. Now it’s just a matter of if it can get done in time to outlast Florida in the SEC and win big in March.
#4: Louisville: Can defense carry this team? The Cardinals are clearly not the fourth best team in the nation. They rank 12th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, 65th in offensive efficiency and shoot 32% from three. Louisville is 11-0 because they work harder than anyone for 40 minutes, only left the Yum! Center once to play a young Butler team, and, most of all, play outstanding defense. Pitino employs an aggressive matchup zone that can morph into a man-to-man on a post touch immediately. Even with Wayne Blackshear returning at some point in January, the Cards are still very limited offensively when compared to Syracuse, Connecticut or Marquette. Can their chaotic, suffocating defense reign supreme against more potent offensive opponents?
#5 North Carolina: More toughness defensively: will it show up? Despite two setbacks against UNLV and Kentucky, the perception of Carolina is still one of a bona fide Final Four favorite. Only Kentucky can argue they boast more firepower. Overall, the Heels defense has been solid: tenth in efficiency and first in the nation at keeping teams off the free throw line, but effort and focus has wavered. Defensive rebounding is an issue. They’re not always tough with the basketball. Forcing turnovers, which is key for Carolina to convert into their exceptional transition game, is below the D-1 average. There are no excuses for these inconsistencies with the likes of seven-footer Tyler Zeller, sturdy James McAdoo and freak of nature John Henson patrolling the paint. This may be nitpicking an outstanding team, but it’s a flaw could cost the Heels in March against a tougher opponent.
#6 Baylor: Is Pierre Jackson the answer at point guard? It is common knowledge that Baylor has as close to a pro frontline as the college game can offer. As Scott Drew learned during last season’s flameout, such a luxury goes to waste without quality guard play to utilize the frontline in the most beneficial manner. That point guard revolving door has been settled a bit by the emergence of junior college transfer Pierre Jackson, who has played 20+ minutes in every game since November 22. Jackson not only tops Big 12 point guards in assist rate, but is shooting a robust 55/52/90 in the early going. The schedule has been relatively light for Baylor so I’m ultra curious to see if Jackson can sustain such excellence into the teeth of the schedule.
#7 Duke: Can Duke fully embrace team defense? Scoring won’t be an issue for the Blue Devils. The problem for Duke is a staggering lack of quality individual defenders, especially among their three starting guards. Seth Curry is constantly exploited off the dribble and benching Austin Rivers in favor of Tyler Thornton, as Coach K did at the end of the Kansas game, isn’t ideal. Ryan Kelly is solid fundamentally, but neither athletic nor quick enough to guard quicker bigs. Duke must be the best help-side defensive team in the country to have success. The most important player then becomes Mason Plumlee, who has to clean up his guards’ mistakes with alert positioning and timely blocked shots.
#8 Connecticut: How much does Andre Drummond improve? When Jim Calhoun opts to goes small and plays Napier, Boatright and Lamb together, Connecticut is at their best. But a smaller lineup does create more a more pronounced role for Drummond, especially since Alex Oriakhi’s disappearing act is now on its sixth week. Drummond is a tremendous defender, but his offensive game is raw and needs time. Drummond has notched 52 points on a remarkable 25-29 FG in his last three outings, an encouraging sign. How far he progresses offensively will determine just how high UConn climbs in the polls.
#9 Missouri: What happens when the shots stop falling? Senior guard-masquerading-as-a-power-forward Kim English is better than he played as a junior when his shooting percentage plummeted to 36% and his scoring average dropped a cool 4 PPG. But he’s also not as good as he’s been shooting so far this season: 53% from the floor, 53% from three and currently eighth in the country in effective FG%. His shooting accuracy mirrors nearly every one of his Missouri teammates and a major reason for that is the point guard play of Phil Pressey. But 60% from Denmon and 77% from Ratliffe inside the arc? 58% as a team? 53% from three for English? That’s simply unsustainable. Without an offensively skilled low-post presence, a problem suddenly even more concerning if Ratliffe fall into foul trouble, the Tigers could be in real trouble on a cold shooting night with no backup plan in store.
#10 Marquette: Can they hold up against the Big East size? One could argue that Chris Otule is the most valuable player on this team. Not only is he Marquette’s starting center at 6’11”, but he’s their only player over 6’8” and by far their best post defender. Big East teams with the height of Syracuse (Melo, Christmas, Keita), Connecticut (Drummond, Oriakhi, Olander), Seton Hall (Pope), Pittsburgh (Taylor, Zanna) or West Virginia (Kilicli, Jones) could all have a field day posting up Marquette and scoring consistently down low. The details regarding Otule’s knee injury are vague, but Williams hasn’t ruled him out for the season. Williams needs Otule on the floor as a post defender and shot-blocking presence to defend the rugged physicality that Big East power forwards and centers offer.
#11 Florida: Can they sustain their three point barrage? A major reason why the Gators are currently the most efficient offensive unit in the nation is their marksmanship from three. Florida’s offense receives 38.8% of their points from beyond the arc. When 39.9% of those attempts find the bottom of the net and gunners like Kenny Boynton (46.6%) and Mike Rosario (41.7%) are en fuego, Florida’s offense can afford to be perimeter-oriented. The problem: Florida sunk just over 35% of their triples last season, suggesting a bit of fool’s gold early on, although it’s certainly plausible a player like Boynton could substantially improve going into his junior season. But what happens on a frigid night from three? Will the guards adjust and force-feed Patric Young or will stubbornness take over like it has so many times in the past?
#12 Kansas: Can Kansas stay healthy? Not only is this not a vintage Bill Self team in terms of talent, but their lack of depth is staggering. The only reserve that plays more than 35% of available minutes for the Jayhawks is three-point specialist Connor Teahan. Kevin Young appeared to break through as a valuable bench cog for Self with 14 points against Ohio State, but he only played 10 minutes and didn’t score against Davidson on Monday, a game where Tyshawn Taylor had to play 33 minutes just eight days after meniscus surgery. Recent recruiting misses and freshman eligibility issues have really limited Kansas’ depth just two seasons after they boasted the best bench in the nation. They can’t afford any injury hits the rest of the way.