Brendon Mulvihill is an RTC contributor. You can find him @themulv on Twitter.  See bottom of the post for the Official RTC Star System.

Two very interesting games on the docket tonight.  An upstart Ivy League team goes against the defending champs while a good old fashion slugfest is brewing in Wichita.  Let’s get to the action.

Huggins and the Mountaineers will be in a street fight against Kansas State tonight.

#19 Harvard at #9 Connecticut – 7 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (****)

• Harvard and Connecticut have two common opponents – Central Florida and Florida State. Tommy Amaker’s squad beat both teams while the Huskies lost to Central Florida and needed overtime to beat FSU. If you look at the statistics for all four games, the difference was Harvard’s ability to get to the line. Their free throw rate was 54.5% against the Seminoles and a mind boggling 94.6% against UCF. Harvard sports a sub-50% eFG, so free throws are very important to their offensive effectiveness. Unfortunately for Harvard, Connecticut is third in the nation at keeping teams off the line. They just don’t foul. Keep a close eye on the Crimson’s free throw attempts. They must get to the line to win this game.
• Connecticut must play this game from the inside out. Currently, Harvard is in the top ten in fewest three-point shot attempts allowed. Look for Jim Calhoun’s squad to feed 6’11” freshman center Andre Drummond early and often. Unfortunately, Drummond is hitting less than 50% of his two-point attempts. Regardless, he must take advantage of his height in this game to help give guards Jeremy Lamb and Shabazz Napier room to shoot on the outside. Pay close attention to the number of touches Drummond is getting in the first half. If he’s getting the ball on the inside and scoring, causing the Harvard defense to come off the perimeter or even double team, the Huskies will have set themselves up for a win.
• The game will hinge on Harvard’s ability to defend the paint and still put pressure on the outside shooters like they have thus far in the season. Drummond’s size will make that extremely difficult. If the Crimson expect to win, they will have to own the defensive boards and grab all of Drummond’s misses. Offensive boards by the Huskies will kill Amaker’s team. If Drummond is shooting over 50% and drawing double teams thereby creating room for the Huskies backcourt to make shots, Calhoun and crew will pick up a win against a Harvard team they missed in the Bahamas.

West Virginia vs. Kansas State – 9 PM EST on ESPN2 HD (***)

• A trend may be developing with West Virginia. If their offense shoots over 50% eFG, they win. If their defense allows over 50% eFG, they lose. That’s good news and bad news for Mountaineer fans in the game against Kansas State. The Wildcats have shot under 50% eFG in three of their five games. However, they have also not allowed an opponent to shoot even over 40% eFG in any of their five games. West Virginia is going to have to find a way to score against an incredibly strong Kansas State defense and it just may have to come on second chance opportunities. West Virginia is seventh in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage at 42.4%. With the Wildcats struggling on the defensive boards, keep an eye on how many second chance points Bob Huggins’ team gets throughout the game.
• Kansas State has an outstanding defense, holding teams to 36.2% from two (4th in the nation) and 25.8% from three (21st in the nation). Unfortunately, they are not matching the defensive intensity on offense. Frank Martin’s team essentially has no outside shooting presence at all. They are only shooting 30% from beyond the arc. Luckily for the Wildcats, West Virginia is in the same boat. They only shoot 28.1% from three. Since this game is shaping up to be a battle in the paint, keep an eye on which team can hit a clutch three.
• This game will come down to which team owns the paint – on both sides of the floor. As mentioned before, do not expect a lot of threes. If either team can muster up a few shots from deep, it will be gravy. More than likely the winner will have more rebounds and more points in the paint. This one could be a good old fashion street fight.

***** – quit your job and divorce your wife if that’s what it takes to watch this game live
**** – best watched live, but if you must, tivo and watch it tonight as soon as you get home
*** – set your tivo but make sure you watch it later
** – set your tivo but we’ll forgive you if it stays in the queue until 2014
* – don’t waste bandwidth (yours or the tivo’s) of any kind on this game

bmulvihill (74 Posts)

This entry was posted on Thursday, December 8th, 2011 at 9:00 am by bmulvihill and is filed under Regular Features, set your dvr. Tagged: andre drummond, bob huggins, connecticut, frank martin, harvard, jeremy lamb, jim calhoun, kansas state, shabazz napier, tommy amaker, west virginia. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.