Rush The Court

As always, a few notes to consider as you scavenge the bracket:

• Two of the four top seeds were clear: Wake Forest as the #1 overall and their ACC counterpart Duke. The other two were to go to conference champions, meaning North Carolina is out of the running even though you could make the case they’re the 3rd best team in the country. As strong as the Big East is this season, their projected champion deserves the nod. Pittsburgh receives the slight edge and the third #1 over Connecticut because Pitt’s one loss (@Louisville) is a tad less regretful than UConn’s (vs. Georgetown). Big 12 champion Oklahoma barely edges Big Ten champion Michigan State with one less game in the loss column for the final #1 seed. Spartan fans won’t be quite as upset once they see the bracket.
• You may be asking: How can Georgetown with 2 Big East losses receive a #2 seed, while 4-0 Louisville gets a 3, 17-2 (overall) Syracuse gets a 3 and 5-0 Marquette gets a 4 seed? For one, the two Hoya losses were vs. Pittsburgh and at Notre Dame, two very excusable defeats (not to mention @ Duke OOC). Louisville’s bad losses out of conference (Western Kentucky, UNLV) still hurt and Marquette’s 5-0 Big East record comes without a truly impressive victory. Georgetown is also boosted by a 6 RPI and 1 SOS with 7 wins vs. the RPI top 100. While Marquette probably deserves a 3 seed along with Louisville and Syracuse, three Big East teams with the same seed causes conflicts. Sorry, Buzz, you get the bump down to a 4.
• Kentucky does not have the resume or quality wins to garner a 6 seed by themselves, but since I have them projected to win the lowly SEC tournament, the committee should give them a boost on Selection Sunday like they have past conference champions.
• Even with California‘s defeat at the hands of rival Stanford on Saturday, UCLA‘ s loss at home to Arizona State (and ASU’s prior loss to USC earlier in the week) means Cal keeps the automatic Pac-10 bid and remains a 3 seed. Instead UCLA falls to a 6 seed with surprisingly weak computer numbers (45 RPI, 98 SOS, 4-3 vs. top 100).
• You might be wondering: Notre Dame an 8 seed? It’s true, folks. A 61 RPI, 102 SOS, 3-3 Big East record, a bad loss to St. John’s and a complete inability to win on the road will do that. Big game for them Saturday vs. Connecticut.

Last Four In: Dayton, Missouri, Utah, Texas A&M
Last Four Out: UNLV, Mississippi State, Illinois State, Arkansas
Next Four Out: Maryland, LSU, Southern Cal, Virginia Tech

– Dayton and Illinois State have eerily similiar resumes, but it was hard to ignore ISU’s atrocious SOS (232) and Dayton’s huge win over Marquette, so the Flyers get the nod. Missouri creeps in riding that win over California in November and with a decent 39 RPI on the season. Texas A&M defeated Baylor earlier in the week to keep them in the field and Utah is boosted by outstanding computer numbers (21 RPI, 13 SOS). Mississippi State boasts a 3-0 SEC record, but hasn’t even played a team in the RPI top 50. Arkansas is the polar opposite- big wins over Texas and Oklahoma, but fall out of the field with their 0-3 SEC start. Maryland had a brutal week blowing a huge second half lead at Miami and losing in overtime to Florida State.

Multiple bids per conference: Big East (9), Big Ten (7), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (3), West Coast (2), Atlantic 10 (2), Mountain West (2).

Automatic bids: Albany, Xavier, Wake Forest, East Tennessee State, Oklahoma, Pittsburgh, Weber State, VMI, Michigan State, Long Beach State, George Mason, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Siena, Buffalo, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, BYU, Robert Morris, Austin Peay, California, American, Kentucky, Davidson, Stephen F. Austin, Alabama State, North Dakota State, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Key Bubble Games (Week of 1/19-1/26):

• Texas A&M at Kansas, 1/19– The Aggies have a sexy overall record, but are just 1-2 in the Big 12 with a SOS in the 80’s. This would certainly qualify as the marquee wins they need to stay in the field.
• Boston College at Georgia Tech, 1/20– The Eagles are really slipping and cannot afford to lose to an ACC team that has yet to win a conference game.
• Tennessee at Vanderbilt, 1/20– Believe it or not, the Vols have slipped all the way to an 11 seed. Vanderbilt is a very difficult place to win, too.
• Michigan at Penn State, 1/20– Losing at home to Ohio State really hurt Michigan. They’re still fairly comfortably in the field of 65, but they’d creep towards the bubble with a loss here.
• Florida at South Carolina, 1/21– The Gamecocks need more than their win at Baylor to start to talk about them in the NCAA Tournament.
• Bradley at Northern Iowa, 1/21– Two teams that will have a say in who wins the automatic bid for the Missouri Valley.
• George Mason at Northeastern, 1/21– Undefeated George Mason travels to Boston to take on 1-loss Northeastern in a big time Colonial clash.
• Wisconsin at Iowa, 1/21– The #2 SOS helps greatly. Still, the Badgers home loss to Minnesota and a mediocre top win (at Michigan) means Wisconsin needs to win these types of games.
• Missouri at Oklahoma State, 1/21– Biggest bubble game of the week here, folks. Missouri claimed Last Team In honors this week and would love this huge road win.
• Arizona State at Arizona, 1/21– Huge for Arizona to creep back into the picture.
• UNLV at BYU, 1/21– Lon Kruger’s squad fell out of the field with their horrid loss to Colorado State. Winning at BYU would put them right back in.
• Maryland at Duke, 1/23- They shocked Carolina in Chapel Hill last year. Can the Terps do it again? Gary Williams needs this type of win very, very badly.
• Villanova at South Florida, 1/23– Villanova’s resume isn’t exactly sparkling, and traveling to Tampa isn’t exactly a gimme win for Big East foes.
• Milwaukee at Butler, 1/23– Milwaukee and Green Bay are right on Butler’s tail in the Horizon. Butler is likely in regardless, but the two Wisconsin schools could make it a two-bid league.
• Memphis at Tennessee, 1/23– Much like the Vanderbilt game, Tennessee would love a win here.
• George Mason at VCU, 1/23– Fair to say it’s an important week for the Patriots.
• Utah at UNLV, 1/23– Enormous game not only for the Mountain West, but for the bubble picture.
• UCLA at Washington, 1/23– Is Washington really 9-seed worthy? We’ll find out more about the Huskies when they greet UCLA in Seattle.
• Florida State at Virginia, 1/23– Precisely the type of loss Leonard Hamilton needs to avoid to stay in the field.
• USC at Washington State, 1/23– The Trojans won’t go away. Another Arizona brain fart gives the Trojans a 2-0 week and they’re right back in the bubble picture. This would be a very difficult win.
• Xavier at LSU, 1/23– LSU needs quality wins. They’re in Baton Rouge so it could very well happen.
• Virginia Tech at Miami, 1/24– Virginia Tech wins this game and they’re nearing a seed. Miami loses this game and they’re in jeopardy of losing a seed.