Here is the latest edition of our weekly look at the current ACC standings and team performances, where we focus on which teams are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. Each week we delve into the advanced metrics to find a few interesting teams, player statistics and trends. This week we examine the relative shooting expertise among ACC schools. We’ll also forecast how the final standings may look and what it means for each ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Thursday, February 25th.
Current Standings
Without Boston College
Advanced Stat of the Week: Shooting Patterns
It doesn’t surprise us that two-point shooting percentage has a greater correlation to overall shooting efficiency than three-point shooting accuracy. However, we are a little surprised that three-point shooting isn’t more random than it is. Of course there are some outliers — namely North Carolina — but the majority of ACC teams are shooting similarly well (or not) from both sides of the arc. Free throw shooting has a few extremes; most notably, Notre Dame and Clemson are each on pace to post better accuracy from the stripe than we have seen in the league since 2009. On the other end of that spectrum is Wake Forest, who has been horrid from the foul line for the second straight year (61.1 percent in 2014-15). The saddest part for Danny Manning is how his Deacons have wasted their frequent trips to the foul line — Wake leads the ACC in free throw rate (52.0 percent). Note that compared to the rest of the nation, the ACC ranks near the middle among the 32 conferences in terms of shooting accuracy.
Future Forecast
The chart above provides a predicted order of finish in the ACC, with final regular season records based on KenPom’s current win probabilities for each team. Also included are a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential, as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while these two bracketologists project the field as if it were named tomorrow, we make our projections based on the final KenPom projected records. Our list of NCAA Tournament teams remains the same this week. Sadly, it appears both Clemson and Florida State have seen their chances of getting an at-large bid permanently evaporate. Not only are they not in anyone’s mock bracket anymore, but neither is even listed as under consideration. That leaves Pittsburgh and Syracuse as the ACC’s two schools with work still to do to earn inclusion in the Big Dance — each may need a win or two in the ACC Tournament to feel safe on Selection Sunday. Right now we are giving North Carolina a one-seed because we predict the Tar Heels will win the conference tourney in Washington, D.C. We also think Virginia is still in the hunt to be on the one-line, but they would probably need to win out for that to happen.