Rush The Court

Now that most of the NBA Draft entry decisions involving ACC players have been made, we can now make some reasonable preliminary guesses about how next season’s ACC standings will look. More roster changes will inevitably occur with a few prominent recruiting targets still on the board (e.g., Brandon Ingram) and some unanticipated transfers, but we can already get a sense as to the overall strength of next year’s league even this far out. The table below that shows the 15 players of this year’s all-ACC teams reveals just how dramatically different the conference will look next year.

Overall, the league doesn’t appear to have as many elite teams next season – Duke and Louisville both lost their top four players while Notre Dame said goodbye to its top two. That leaves North Carolina and Virginia as the only remaining ACC teams that appear to return enough talent to become national title contenders. The good news is that next year’s middle of the pack looks to be much deeper, meaning that the league will have an opportunity to earn as many as eight or nine NCAA bids next March. Here are our 2015-16 ACC Way-Too-Early Power Rankings.

1. North Carolina: The Tar Heels will be talented and experienced and Roy Williams hopes that his team — Marcus Paige in particular — is healthy as well. J.P. Tokoto decided to leave a year early but look for second-year players Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson, and Joel Berry to compensate for his loss with improved scoring and decision-making.
2. Virginia: Tony Bennett’s squad will be gunning for its third consecutive ACC regular season title but the Cavaliers must replace two starters, including all-conference wing Justin Anderson. While there’s no doubt that Virginia will once again be strong defensively, a question of offensive firepower will persist. We got a glimpse of Bennett’s offense without Anderson while the star was out of the lineup with a broken finger, and it was sorely lacking.
3. Notre Dame: While the Irish will certainly miss their two all-conference performers, there is a solid returning nucleus that includes point guard Demetrius Jackson, wing Steve Vasturia, and post player Zach Auguste for Mike Brey to work with. This group will get support from rising sophomore Bonzie Colson, whose high offensive rating (126.1) suggests he will become a potent scorer with additional minutes.
4. Duke: This may seem low for a Mike Krzyzewski team, but Duke presently has no point guard on its roster. That situation can be rectified with a reclassified recruit (Derryck Thornton?) or an eligible graduate transfer, but for now it’s a significant concern. Either way there will be a mix of experienced role players and talented youngsters on next season’s team. Grayson Allen will be expected to build off of his great Final Four performances but he will now become the target of opposing defenses.
5. N.C. State: Perhaps no team made bigger strides over the course of this season than Mark Gottfried’s group, with Anthony Barber likewise emerging as one of the most talented point guards in the entire country. Barber will certainly miss his perimeter running mates, Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner, but the Wolfpack’s frontcourt returns mostly intact, including a budding star in Abdul-Malik Abu. The big question is whether Gottfried can break his long-established pattern of performing poorly with expectations on his shoulders?
6. Miami: Jim Larranaga will return almost all his key pieces to a team that just missed making the NCAA Tournament. Leading the way next season will be three senior starters – Tonye Jekiri, Sheldon McClellan, and Angel Rodriguez — all of whom were honorable mention all-ACC performers. Larranaga has done well with experienced squads in the past so it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Hurricanes finish higher than this spot.
7. Pittsburgh: Much like Miami, the Panthers will have plenty of returning talent and will expect to return to the Big Dance next season. Rising junior forwards Jamal Artis and Michael Young should give Jamie Dixon one of the top frontcourt tandems in the league, while steady veteran James Robinson is still around to run the show.
8. Louisville: After losing their top four scorers after this season, where are the Cardinals’ points going to come from? Graduate transfer Trey Lewis (16.2 PPG at Cleveland State) will help, as will a highly-ranked recruiting class. And of course, Rick Pitino always manages to field a stingy defense. As of right now, though, there are too many offensive and experience questions with this team to rank it any higher.
9. Florida State: As of now, Xavier Rathan-Mayes is set to return after an impressive rookie campaign and more perimeter firepower is on the way with a well-regarded recruiting class. To move into the ACC’s upper tier, however, the Seminoles must find better production in the post, something that’s been lacking in Tallahassee the last few years.
10. Syracuse: Here’s another school with a Hall of Fame coach whose team is picked lower than we normally expect. It’s not so much that the Orange will be a worse team next season but that several other middle-of-the-pack teams look poised to jump them. Jim Boeheim returns a veteran backcourt in Trevor Cooney and Michael Gbinije, but Rakeem Christmas’ post production will be difficult to replace.
11. Wake Forest: This should be a much-improved squad in Danny Manning’s second year at the helm of the Demon Deacons. The problem is that the group of teams immediately above Wake Forest in the standings should also be better next year. Manning is bringing in some good young talent but the fortunes of next season will hinge on the performances (and leadership) of rising seniors Devin Thomas and Codi Miller-McIntyre.
12. Clemson: Just like Syracuse, the Tigers may slip in next season’s standings even though they should basically be just as good as they were this year. As usual, Brad Brownell’s team will probably be tough to score against while struggling to consistently score themselves.
13. Virginia Tech: Next season will be year two of the Buzz Williams era in Blacksburg, and like Manning at Wake, he is quickly improving the Hokies’ talent level. However, Williams doesn’t already have two established veterans to pair with the youngsters, causing a significantly steeper climb for the Hokies.
14. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets on paper appear to be more talented than some of the teams above them but the energy level surrounding Brian Gregory’s program isn’t good at this point. Mostly for financial reasons (for example, the school is still paying Paul Hewitt almost $1 million/year), Gregory was brought back to Atlanta despite a four-year record of 55-71.
15. Boston College: With Olivier Hanlan’s recent announcement that he is turning pro, Jim Christian will head into his second year as the Eagles’ coach without his top four scorers from this season. For a team that finished 13th in a 15-team league, that’s a big problem.