This is the second edition of a weekly look at the current ACC standings and corresponding team performances, focusing on the teams that are playing better or worse than their records might indicate. We will also delve into some advanced metrics to find a few interesting team or player stats and trends. Finally, we will forecast how the final standings may look, and what that means for ACC schools’ postseason aspirations.
Note: All numbers are current for games played through Wednesday, January 28.
Current Standings
Newsflash #1 – Virginia is pretty good at playing defense. I know you didn’t hear that here first, but I bet you didn’t know that the Cavaliers are so much better than the rest of the league. To date, the gap between Virginia and the second-best ACC defense, Syracuse, is 0.14 PPP, a figure that is wider than the difference (0.13 PPP) between the Orange and the worst defense in the league (Pittsburgh). This is the fourth consecutive season that Tony Bennett’s squad has a defense rated among the nation’s top 25; over that period of 64 games, Virginia has only allowed 19 ACC opponents to score more than a point per possession. Interestingly, the only team that Virginia has failed to hold below that mark is its next opponent. But even though Duke has managed to be somewhat effective against the Cavaliers’ pack-line defense, the Blue Devils have only won two of those four meetings. Given the recent dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon, Duke may face an uphill battle in converting possessions against a rested Virginia team.
It has been a tough last week-plus for the league’s middle-of-the-pack teams. The biggest slide came from N.C. State, which has now dropped three games in a row including two straight at home. As we mentioned last week, Syracuse and Pittsburgh were not playing as well as their records indicated, especially considering the relative weakness of each team’s conference schedule. Predictably, those former Big East rivals both lost two games in the past week. North Carolina is the next team on the list that may be in for a slight correction. The Tar Heels gaudy PPP margin has been built against the second-weakest conference schedule so far. Up next is a tough three-day stretch for Roy Williams as his squad travels to Louisville Saturday and then hosts Virginia on Big Monday.
Advanced Stat of the Week: Notre Dame’s Shooting
So now for Newsflash #2 – The Irish can shoot the rock. Not only do they lead ACC play in effective field goal percentage at 54.3 percent, but Notre Dame ranks first in the nation for all games at a remarkable 60.0 percent. That mark has been achieved with perfect balance from both sides of the arc, as the Irish have made a robust 60 percent of their two-point shots and 40 percent on three-pointers. To be fair, Notre Dame’s weak non-conference schedule has helped inflate this metric, but even when factoring in the remaining schedule, the Irish are still headed for an historically great shooting year. If they maintain their conference-only pace the rest of the way, Mike Brey’s group would finish with an effective field goal percentage in the neighborhood of 57.7 percent, easily best by an ACC team in the Pomeroy era of statistics. The next-best shooting squads from the ACC have been the 2001-02 #1-ranked Duke team (56.3%) and North Carolina’s 2004-05 National Champions (56.0%). By way of further comparison, the best shooting season for a major conference team over this span was turned in by Florida’s 2006-07 team, which won its second consecutive national title while posting an effective field goal shooting mark of 59.6 percent.
Future Forecast
The above chart shows a predicted order of finish with final regular season records based on Ken Pomeroy’s current win probabilities. Notre Dame has added two wins to its projected total since last week and now sits alone in second place. We have also included a few comparative rankings that are mentioned frequently when evaluating NCAA Tournament potential as well as projections from two bracketology experts, ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm. Note that while their projections are made as if the field was named tomorrow, we make ours based on final projected records. N.C. State, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are sliding down the ACC standings and none appear poised to make the Big Dance at this point. It would be disappointing if the league only garners six NCAA bids again this year, but that appears where things could be headed. Miami is probably another loss away from dropping to the bubble as well, so the top-heavy ACC looks more likely to send five teams to the Dance than seven teams this season.