Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Now that football season is finally in the rear view mirror, college basketball has stepped into its rightful place on the national radar. The previous week has brought us a slew of thrilling rivalries, intra-conference showdowns and last-second finishes in the endless pursuit to decipher which teams have the capabilities to make a deep March run. The rigors of conference play, especially in hostile environments facing a despised foe, exposes flaws hidden early in the season by facing inferior opposition. In the last week alone, my perception of a number of top teams has altered drastically. Here are the lessons gleaned from a week of non-stop college basketball viewing:

A zone defense could be Kentucky’s kryptonite: Containing the Wildcats’ absurd quickness off the dribble, Teague-to-Davis pick-and-roll dunks and overall athleticism is nearly impossible playing straight man defense. Vanderbilt attempted to stay in front of Kentucky’s guards with the pillowy soft man-to-man defense of Brad Tinsley and John Jenkins early in the first half Saturday and failed miserably. Faced with a double-digit deficit, a zone defense combined with hot shooting turned the tide. A zone not only limits ball screening and penetration, but it goads Kentucky into firing up threes, where only Doron Lamb is an elite marksman from deep. Luckily for Calipari and the Cats, neither Mississippi State nor Florida – their two toughest road tests on the docket the remainder of the season – utilizes a zone the majority of the time. A matchup with Syracuse on April 2 would be fascinating.

Ohio State’s perimeter play is a definite concern: Saturday’s unsightly home loss to Michigan State – coupled with Kentucky’s near-invincibility since Christian Watford’s game-winner in December – was the first time I legitimately re-considered my prevailing thought that the Buckeyes would play for a national title April 2 in New Orleans. The Spartans are a top-ten outfit and special on the defensive end, but I’m unconvinced that Ohio State’s guards can provide enough in the scoring column to help the overworked Jared Sullinger in the post. Defenses can go under screens and sag off Aaron Craft, Lenzelle Smith plays due to his defensive prowess and William Buford’s declining offensive rating and effective FG% back up his inconsistent shooting outputs. If Sullinger runs into another physical frontcourt presence similar to Sparty’s Adreian Payne – or UK’s Josh Harrellson dating back to last year’s Sweet 16 – the Bucks may fall short of their perennially lofty goals.

Tyler Zeller is the best player in the ACC: In the battle of the two best overall players in the conference, Carolina’s Zeller (25 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 steals) outplayed Virginia’s Mike Scott (18 points, 6 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals) to take the lead in ACC POY discussions. Zeller’s value to the Heels isn’t limited to the box score; the 7-foot center routinely tops UNC coaching staff’s defensive rankings and is one of the top charge-takers in the nation. His ability to run rim-to-rim and spark Carolina’s patented fast break leads to an abundance of easy baskets and that left shoulder jump hook is often unstoppable. His marvelous first half performance against Duke on Wednesday is easily lost in the shuffle due to end-of-game heroics, but he single-handedly kept Carolina within striking distance with his play on both ends. Scott means more to the Cavs, but Zeller is the best player in the league.

Mike Brey is the national coach of the year: Steve Fisher, John Thompson, Tom Crean and Frank Haith have all done commendable jobs molding overlooked teams in the preseason into national contenders by February. Their efforts pale in comparison to the adversity Brey faced this season in South Bend after losing Big East player of the year Ben Hansbrough to graduation and junior Carleton Scott unexpectedly to the draft waters. Then the decisive blow in the midst of a disastrous non-conference slate that included losses to Georgia and Maryland: the loss of senior leading scorer Tim Abromaitis to a torn ACL. Instead of packing it in and dismissing 2011-12 as a lost cause, Brey’s Irish – buoyed by the rapid improvement of backcourt mates Eric Atkins and Jerian Grant — have won six Big East games in a row including a marquee win over then-unblemished Syracuse. Hook Digger Phelps up to a lie detector and even he’ll tell you this turnaround was shocking.

Tom Izzo loves his team – for good reason: After some much-needed offseason cleansing, namely the graduation of Kalin Lucas and Durrell Summers along with Korie Lucious’ transfer, Izzo’s Spartans are back to embracing his philosophy of winning games by dominating the boards, locking down defensively and executing his endless supply of halfcourt sets. Get this: State ranks in the nation’s top 20 in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency, offensive and defensive rebounding and defensive two-point and three-point percentage. It’s such an enviable mix of talent, toughness and accepted role allocation that I can’t help but make the comparison to Duke’s 2010 outfit who won the national title. Draymond Green is an infectious, dedicated leader who also happens to be an automatic double-double, Keith Appling is constantly making strides at the point and the Payne/Nix duo made life miserable for Jared Sullinger.

After Kentucky, I’ll take Kansas’ starting five: Combine production with potential and Teague, Lamb, Kidd-Gilchrist, Jones and Davis have to be the top starting unit in the nation. Missouri, Ohio State, Syracuse and North Carolina can all make claims for the second spot, but I’ll happily go to war with Kansas’ five of Taylor, Johnson, Releford, Robinson and Withey in March. Through effective screening, ball reversal and high-low sets, those five Jayhawks run some of the most efficient half-court offense in college basketball. The talent of such a fantastic starting five has helped Kansas overcome a futile bench, freshmen ineligibility and recent early entries to once again claim their rightful spot at the top of the Big 12 standings. Robinson is the frontrunner for National POY, Taylor has played as well as any point guard in the nation since December knee surgery and Withey posted 43 points and 25 rebounds on 61 percent shooting in his last two games after a no-show at Missouri.

Wichita State is the premiere mid-major in the nation: The efficiency stats have been bullish on the Shockers for a while, but Gregg Marshall’s team really needed a marquee win to grab some national attention that was long overdue. Since slipping up against Alabama and Temple in November, Wichita has won 20 of 22 games and just punked Creighton in Omaha to the tune of a 19-point beatdown. The Shockers shoot 54 percent from two, 75 percent from the line, rank ninth in offensive efficiency, limit turnovers and crash the defensive glass. That type of balance carries over to a rotation where seven players average between 23 and 29 minutes per game. 7-footer Garrett Stutz (19/9 in his last five) can match the size of any power conference contender, Joe Ragland is an outstanding shooter and Ben Smith smothered Doug McDermott on Saturday.

Dismissing Rick Pitino’s Cardinals is unwise: After a midseason slump that included a 31-point thrashing to bottom-feeder Providence, Louisville has righted the ship, their most impressive performance coming during a 77-74 victory this past weekend at West Virginia. These Cardinals have always defended – their 2-3 matchup zone holds teams to 40 percent shooting inside the arc and generates steals on 13 percent of possessions – but consistent offense has been a lingering issue. The 77 points in Morgantown is encouraging, as was the contribution of freshman Wayne Blackshear (13 points, 4 rebounds, 3 for 5 from three), a two-time Illinois Mr. Basketball who just entered the rotation after being sidelined with a shoulder injury. Peyton Siva is still fantastic off ball screens, Kyle Kuric is a capable shooter and Russ Smith is instant offense off the bench. The Cardinals may make the longest March run of any of the teams in the core of a muddled Big East.

Creighton and Florida’s struggles are easily identifiable: Both programs took a step back this week. Creighton dropped their two contests to Evansville and Wichita State, while Florida was blown out at Rupp Arena before losing a stunner at home to pesky Tennessee. The Jays and Gators have been carried explosive offensive attacks to national rankings this season, but are especially susceptible when those shots don’t fall for 40 minutes. Creighton (7/142) and Florida (5/110) have the widest offensive/defensive efficiency disparities of any upper echelon teams. In the do-or-die scenario that is the NCAA Tournament, do you really want to hitch your wagon to two teams incapable of overcoming frigid shooting performances?

Miami will make the NCAA Tournament: Despite the understandable loss on Saturday at Florida State, the Canes are trending in the right direction with five wins in their last six games, including that huge overtime victory on Super Bowl Sunday at Duke. The schedule is favorable the rest of the way with only two road games remaining at Maryland and at NC State (huge) and both UNC and Florida State will traveling to Miami. The numbers (36 RPI, 38 SOS, 91 NC SOS, 4 wins vs. top 100) won’t hold them back and the committee will surely factor in that the Canes entire non-conference slate was played without starting center Reggie Johnson. Throw in the ultra-weak bubble due to the Pac-12’s downfall and Miami has a clear opening.