Zach Hayes is RTC’s official bracketologist.
- Last Four In: Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Memphis, VCU.
- Last Four Out: Butler, Colorado State, Richmond, Michigan.
- Next Four Out: Penn State, UAB, Nebraska, Baylor.
S-Curve (italics indicated auto bid):
- 1 Seeds: Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Texas, Kansas.
- 2 Seeds: BYU, Duke, San Diego State, Notre Dame.
- 3 Seeds: Georgetown, Purdue, Florida, Connecticut.
- 4 Seeds: Louisville, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Villanova.
- 5 Seeds: Vanderbilt, St. John’s, Arizona, Syracuse.
- 6 Seeds: West Virginia, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Xavier.
- 7 Seeds: Missouri, Temple, George Mason, Utah State.
- 8 Seeds: Washington, UNLV, Florida State, Old Dominion.
- 9 Seeds: UCLA, Illinois, Tennessee, Cincinnati.
- 10 Seeds: Michigan State, Georgia, Saint Mary’s, Minnesota.
- 11 Seeds: Marquette, Kansas State, Boston College, Cleveland State.
- 12 Seeds: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Gonzaga, Memphis, VCU, Missouri State.
- 13 Seeds: Southern Miss, Charleston, Belmont, Oakland.
- 14 Seeds: Princeton, Coastal Carolina, Bucknell, Kent State.
- 15 Seeds: Fairfield, Vermont, Morehead State, Montana.
- 16 Seeds: Long Beach State, Long Island, Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Morgan State.
Conference Call
- America East (1)– Vermont
- Atlantic 10 (3)– Xavier, Temple
- ACC (5)- Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, Boston College, Virginia Tech
- Atlantic Sun (1)– Belmont
- Big 12 (5)- Texas, Kansas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State
- Big East (11)- Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Connecticut, Louisville, Villanova, St. John’s, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Marquette
- Big Sky (1)– Montana
- Big South (1)– Coastal Carolina
- Big Ten (6)– Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota
- Big West (1)– Long Beach State
- CAA (3)– George Mason, Old Dominion, VCU.
- Conference USA (2)– Southern Miss, Memphis
- Horizon (1)– Cleveland State
- Ivy (1)– Princeton
- MAAC (1)– Fairfield
- MAC (1)– Kent State
- MEAC (1)– Morgan State
- Missouri Valley (1)– Missouri State
- Mountain West (3)– BYU, San Diego State, UNLV
- Northeast (1)– Long Island
- Ohio Valley (1)– Morehead State
- Pac-10 (3)– Arizona, Washington, UCLA
- Patriot (1)– Bucknell
- SEC (6)– Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama
- Southern (1)– Charleston
- Southland (1)– McNeese State
- Summit (1)– Oakland
- Sun Belt (1)– Florida Atlantic
- SWAC (1)– Texas Southern
- WCC (2)– Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga
- WAC (1)– Utah State
Key Bubble Games This Week (2/21-2/24):
- Tuesday: Michigan State at Minnesota– Both of these Big Ten representatives check in as #10 seeds in my latest bracket projection. While boasting a larger number of quality wins that most of their bubble brethren, the loser of this game — especially if it’s downward trending Minnesota falling at home to drop to three games under .500 in conference play — reverts back to dangerous territory.
- Wednesday: Wisconsin at Michigan– The Wolverines have been sneaking up on the bubble for weeks now, treading water and receiving tons of help in the process. They welcome an RPI top-25 Wisconsin team that plays much better at home than on the road to Ann Arbor on Wednesday. This is a golden opportunity to pick up a resume-building win. Fall on Wednesday and Michigan will need a miracle run.
- Wednesday: Colorado State at BYU– The odds of the Rams marching into Provo and leaving the Jimmerdome with a win are very slim, but Tim Miles does have enough talent on his roster to at least put up a respectable showing in the eyes of the selection committee. An upset win would vault Colorado State right back into the field after Saturday’s home setback to UNLV dropped them out.
- Wednesday: Baylor at Missouri– The most damaging defeat of the weekend bubble-wise had to be Baylor losing at home to downtrodden Texas Tech. Already dealing with a lackluster portfolio, that bad loss dropped the Bears comfortably out of the field. A bounceback win at Missouri, an arena that seems to bring out the best in the Tigers, would cancel out the Tech disaster and keep Baylor alive.
- Wednesday: Kansas State at Nebraska- Another stellar defensive effort on their home floor in an upset of #2 Texas catapulted the Cornhuskers into the bubble discussion. Kansas State must bring their A game to Lincoln if they want to avoid a loss that would erase some good fortunate created lately. The Wildcats check in at an #11 seed this week, so there’s work to be done.
- Wednesday: Cincinnati at Georgetown- The home stretch for the Bearcats looks like this: Georgetown twice, at Marquette, Connecticut. Not the easiest final four games and Wednesday marks the hardest of the lot. Cincinnati big home win over Louisville and survival at Providence boost the Bearcats to a #9 seed this week. An RPI top-10 victory in D.C. would move them up another seed line.
- Wednesday: Florida State at Maryland– The Seminoles aren’t quite on the bubble yet, yet they must show the selection committee they can win some games without their superstar Chris Singleton. A win in College Park would prove just that. Maryland appears NIT-bound, but that’s still a tough out in College Park. FSU’s at-large profile is mediocre other than that signature win over Duke.
- Thursday: Georgia at Florida- The Bulldogs blew numerous quality win opportunities in Athens, then redeemed themselves on Saturday by winning at Tennessee and remaining in the field of 65. If they should upset Florida in Gainesville, a place where Jacksonville and South Carolina won and numerous other teams have nearly scalped the Gators, it would be awfully difficult to keep the Bulldogs out of the field of 68.
- Thursday: Marquette at Connecticut– The Golden Eagles are an astounding 3-10 vs. the RPI top-25 and 0-0 vs. the RPI 26-50. Other than this trip to Storrs, the rest of the schedule looks winnable for Buzz Williams’ squad. An upset at UConn could fuel the fire towards a 4-0 finish to the campaign.
- Thursday: Penn State at Northwestern– Despite a lackluster overall record, Penn State has beaten Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and Minnesota. They remain alive for an at-large berth, but a loss in Evanston would put the dagger in any lingering hopes.
- Thursday: Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s– Gonzaga is one of my last four teams into the field. St. Mary’s all of a sudden needs quality wins after Saturday’s setback vs. Utah State to avoid having to win the WCC Tournament to feel safe. This is about as intense of a rivalry game out West as you can find. Stay up for this matchup late Thursday night that has tremendous implications.
Next bubble watch: Friday, February 25.
Next bracket: Monday, February 28.