Rush The Court

RTC contributor and official bracketologist Zach Hayes will update the bubble scene every week until Madness ensues.

With just over two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, the bubble is starting to shrink as more teams move into lock status:

Richmond– The current A-10 co-leader has the most difficult stretch to finish the season with trips to Xavier and Charlotte and a home date with Dayton. Even losing all three wouldn’t squash the Spiders.

Xavier– The Musketeers really only needed to split their road trip at Charlotte and St. Louis. Instead, they went out and won both. With a high RPI and three winnable games left, Xavier is back in the field yet again.

Maryland– The Terrapins have now won four in a row and collected huge home wins over Georgia Tech in miracle fashion and Clemson in comeback fashion. Gary Williams has his squad 10-3 in the ACC.

Missouri– Mike Anderson’s team only needs to win one of their next four games (the four includes their first round matchup in the Big 12 Tournament). The home win over Texas pretty much sealed the deal.

Baylor– The Bears clinched a berth with their squeaker over Texas A&M last night in Waco. Their non-conference wins over Xavier (neutral) and at Arizona State seems a bit stronger, as well.

Texas– Winning at Texas Tech and taking care of Oklahoma State in Austin were the clinchers. Texas has four wins vs. the RPI top-50, but could still finish at a disappointing 9-7 in the Big 12.

Texas A&M– The win at Iowa State last Saturday clinched their bid. The Aggies have tremendous computer numbers, won at Missouri and beat Baylor at home.

UNLV– A lock for two reasons: 1) wins over BYU, at New Mexico, at Arizona and vs. Louisville and 2) their final two games against Wyoming and Air Force, teams that have combined for three MWC wins this season.

Atlantic 10

Locks: Temple, Richmond, Xavier

Rhode Island (28 RPI, 60 SOS)- The Rams hit a rough patch in mid-February losing three in a row in A-10 play, but they righted the ship this past Saturday against hapless Fordham and now head into their last three very winnable games. URI must travel to St. Bonaventure and Massachusetts with a huge bubble game against Charlotte at home sandwiched in between. If the Rams win out, they’ll finish 23-6 (11-5) in a strong Atlantic 10 and would, in all likelihood, received a bid as long as they’re not upset in the first round of the conference tournament. What’s concerning is that the Rams will head into that tournament with just two wins vs. the RPI top 50- Oklahoma State and Dayton. Current seed range: 11-12.

Dayton (43 RPI, 37 RPI)– Speaking of Dayton, unless the Flyers can stun Richmond on the road, they’ll be sitting squarely on the bubble heading into the A-10 tournament. Dayton probably passes the eye test and they do have out-of-conference wins over Georgia Tech on a neutral floor and Old Dominion. They’ve also lost a handful of close conference road games and beat fellow bubble squad Charlotte by 28 in their lone meeting. Still, the Flyers are just 3-6 vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-8 vs. the RPI top 100, and, factoring in a loss at Richmond on March 4, they’d finish an uninspiring 9-7 in A-10 play. It’ll come down to the A-10 tournament for the preseason favorites. Current seed range: Last Four Out.

Charlotte (55 RPI, 106 SOS)– The 49ers still have a shot to make the NCAA’s, but blew a golden opportunity at home against Xavier last Saturday to pick up an RPI top-25 win and lost by 14. Now they have to win two of their last three at George Washington, at Rhode Island and home vs. Richmond. Charlotte did pick up a big non-conference win at Louisville, but will the committee factor in the Cardinals depleted state at the time? What will help them more are A-10 wins over Temple and at Richmond. A 106 SOS and just four wins vs. the RPI top-100 doesn’t help the cause. They need to split those last two games to have a real shot. Current seed range: Last four out.

ACC

Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland

Georgia Tech (30 RPI, 13 SOS)– The Yellow Jackets are in a dicey position because of their inability to close games on the road. In fact, Paul Hewitt’s team hasn’t won a road game since January 16 at North Carolina. But his team does boast outstanding computer numbers and truly only needs to split their final two games at Clemson and home vs. Virginia Tech to feel pretty good about a bid (assuming a home win over BC before both games). 2-1 down the stretch would put them at 20-10 (8-8) with five wins vs. the RPI top 50 (three against ACC rivals Duke, Wake Forest and Clemson), a number nearly no other bubble team can replicate. Current seed range: 9-10.

Clemson (33 RPI, 36 SOS)– It’s not out of the realm of possibility the Tigers slip all the way to the bubble after blowing a double-digit lead last night at Maryland. Their final three games are all challenging- at Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest. They can probably afford to lose both road games as long as they down the Yellow Jackets at home, putting Clemson at 20-10 (8-8) with four wins vs. the RPI top 50 and a non-conference win over Butler back in November that keeps looking stronger. Just win once at the ACC Tournament and the Tigers are in the field. Current seed range: 8-9.

Florida State (39 RPI, 45 SOS)– The Seminoles are blessed with the most favorable schedule of any of these ACC semi-bubble teams. They dispatched hapless North Carolina last night and now return home for visits from Wake Forest and Clemson and finish with a visit to Miami, three games in which Florida State should be favored. They swept Georgia Tech and beat Virginia Tech at home and collected a non-conference win over Marquette on a neutral floor. 2-1 down the stretch would put the ‘Noles at 22-8 (10-6) in the ACC and clinch their spot in the bracket. Current seed range: 7-9.

Virginia Tech (45 RPI, 158 SOS)– Seth Greenberg’s team took one on the chin last night against Boston College in blowout fashion, an effort I’m sure didn’t impress the selection committee. Their season essentially comes down to the Maryland home game this Saturday. If they lose to the Terps, they’ll then have to win at Georgia Tech in the season finale because the Hokies absolutely must get to 10-6 in the ACC to avoid being left just out of the field. 9-7 won’t cut it with a #158 SOS, #341 non-conference SOS and their best non-conference win over Seton Hall in OT on a neutral court. Take care of Maryland and NC State in Blacksburg and Hokie fans can breathe comfortably. Current seed range: 10-11.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M

Oklahoma State (29 RPI, 38 SOS)– The Cowboys win over Baylor last Saturday was enormous given their brutal schedule down the stretch. If they can steal either the home date with Kansas this weekend or win at Texas A&M, the Cowboys are in on the heels of four wins vs. the RPI top-25. It’s more likely they lose both games and beat Nebraska at home in the finale, putting the Pokes at 20-10 (8-8) in arguably the strongest conference in the land, but with their marquee non-conference win at Stanford. They have knocked off Texas A&M, Baylor and Kansas State (away) during Big 12 play. They’d just have to avoid losing in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament in my estimation. Current seed range: 9-11.

Big East

Locks: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh

Louisville (40 RPI, 8 SOS)– I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but Louisville could still miss the NCAA Tournament if they lose their last three games at Connecticut, at Marquette and vs. Syracuse. That would drop their RPI to the mid-40s range, they’d have only two wins vs. the RPI top 50 and an 18-13 (9-9) mark with only the Syracuse win to fall back on.  It would be much smarter for Rick Pitino’s team to just win one of those three challenging Big East contests, which would prevent them from having to win two games at the Big East Tournament. Current seed range: 9-11.

Connecticut (41 RPI, 2 SOS)– I said it two weeks ago and I’ll say it again, Connecticut needs to get to 9-9 in the Big East to make the NCAA Tournament. The Huskies can win their last three games vs. Louisville, at Notre Dame and at South Florida, but they can also lose all three games. The inspired play of Kemba Walker will have to continue if Jim Calhoun wants to Dance this season. The #2 SOS helps greatly, along with RPI top-30 wins over Texas, at Villanova and West Virginia. Destiny is back in Connecticut’s hands after their rough patch in the middle of Big East play. Current seed range: 11-12.

Seton Hall (51 RPI, 14 SOS)– The Pirates are a team to look out for sneaking into the bubble picture. I looked at Seton Hall’s early season struggles and didn’t count them out precisely because of their favorable last four games- Rutgers, Marquette, at Rutgers, at Providence. They dispatched of rival Rutgers on Tuesday and now need to win those final three Big East games to reach 10-8 in the conference. Hall won at Cornell in November by 10 and beat Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame and Cincinnati at home. Even a sweep and 10-8 Big East record would give the Pirates merely three wins over the RPI top-50, meaning the task wouldn’t be complete before New York. Current seed range: lots of work to do.

Cincinnati (56 RPI, 17 SOS)– The Bearcats are in a difficult position after dropping a heartbreaker at home to Marquette last Sunday. Mick Cronin’s team sits at a mediocre 16-11 overall record with a middling RPI and two wins in Maui over Vanderbilt and Maryland that can only carry you so far. Their best win in Big East play was a win at Connecticut on February 13. The final three games are also brutal- at West Virginia, Villanova and at Georgetown. They’ll need to find some way to steal one of those games to get to 8-10 in the Big East and try to forge a run at the conference tournament. Current seed range: lots of work to do.

Marquette (61 RPI, 63 SOS)– It’s absolutely incredible that Marquette has an outside shot at a double-bye in the Big East Tournament a year after losing Wes Matthews, Jerel McNeal and Dominic James. The karma is starting to reverse course on the Golden Eagles in close games. Just in the last month they’ve edged Connecticut, Providence, Cincinnati and St. John’s on the road in nail-biting fashion. Marquette now sits at 9-6 in the Big East with a November win over Xavier (neutral) and a conference win over Georgetown. They finish with three winnable games at Seton Hall plus home vs. Louisville and Notre Dame and should feel good about their chances. Current seed range: 9-10.

Big Ten

Locks: Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin

Illinois (65 RPI, 68 SOS)– The Illini took care of business at Michigan in ugly fashion and now just need to win one more Big Ten game to clinch a spot in the field. They won’t be denied at 11-7 in conference play with wins at Clemson, vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Michigan State and at Wisconsin despite the lagging RPI/SOS totals. Illinois welcomes Minnesota to Champaign with a chance to practically ensure a bid and squash any remaining hopes for the Gophers at the same time. Current seed range: 9-10.

Minnesota (76 RPI, 51 SOS)– They needed that game last night so badly, falling to Big Ten leader Purdue by 1 at Williams Arena even after Robbie Hummel left with a knee injury early. Now they need to win at Illinois this Saturday to keep hope alive unless they have a Big Ten Tournament final run in their future (thinking highly unlikely). The Gophers do have a win over Butler in Anaheim and beat Ohio State (with Turner) and Wisconsin at home, but the computer numbers are disgraceful and 9-9 in a mediocre Big Ten won’t flatter the committee. Current seed range: lots of work to do.

Mountain West

Locks: BYU, New Mexico, UNLV

San Diego State (38 RPI, 80 SOS)– It’ll come down to the Mountain West Tournament for the Aztecs. The RPI is stellar for a bubble team, but they lost to Pacific and Wyoming and their best win in non-conference play was a home victory over Arizona. They should sweep their final two conference games vs. Colorado State and at Air Force, putting Steve Fisher’s team at 22-8 (11-5) and squarely on the bubble. Then the goal should be to reach the MWC Tournament finals. Current seed range: Last Four Out.

Pac-10

California (23 RPI, 3 SOS)– Just when you think Cal is going to rip off a huge run, they lose to Oregon State. The Bears played the most difficult non-conference schedule in the nation, but didn’t beat any of those quality opponents. They have a grand total of zero wins vs. the RPI top-50 and won’t have any chances to change that number the rest of the season. This means that Cal cannot afford to lose two of their last three or the Pac-10 Tournament will become a battle for the conference’s one bid. They could still be caught by Arizona State in the regular season title race, and the two teams meet in Berkeley for a huge contest this Saturday. Current seed range: 10-11.

Arizona State (57 RPI, 78 SOS)– Herb Sendek’s team has quietly climbed up the Pac-10 standings, winning five of their last six including victories at Washington State and at Arizona. It was said a few weeks ago when Arizona State was on the fringe of dropping out of bubble watch altogether: they need to win out to have a chance. But if they were to lose at Cal and win their other three games at Stanford and home vs. USC and UCLA, the Sun Devils would sit 12-6 in a “power” conference, but with only one win vs. the RPI top-50 (San Diego State). It would come down to the Pac-10 Tournament in one of the more intriguing cases in the history of this exercise. Current seed range: Next Four Out.

SEC

Locks: Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

Florida (48 RPI, 55 SOS)– The RPI/SOS is starting to really climb for the Gators, a team that’s reeled off two huge wins at Mississippi and home vs. Tennessee in the last five days to climb firmly into the projected field. Billy Donovan also has non-conference wins over Michigan State (neutral) and Florida State (home) to fall back on. Florida isn’t quite a lock for the field yet because they could lose their final three games at Georgia, vs. Vanderbilt and at Kentucky. A win at tricky Athens would all but clinch their bid, though. Even falling in those last two games would improve the Gators SOS and it’d be highly unlikely they’d be denied at 21-10 (10-6) in the SEC with two solid non-conference wins, something Florida has lacked enough of the last two seasons. Current seed range: 7-9.

Mississippi (63 RPI, 50 SOS)– The Rebels NCAA hopes were hanging by a thread last night trailing Auburn at home by double-digits and coming off five losses in their last six SEC games. But a second half offensive onslaught kept Mississippi’s season alive. The RPI isn’t too strong and most likely won’t improve much with their final three games at Alabama, home vs. LSU and at Arkansas. Fortunately, though, they can and should win all of those games. A sweep would put Ole Miss at 21-9 (9-7) with one win over the RPI top-50 ( good = Kansas State), which means they’d likely still have to win once or twice at the SEC Tournament, so hope is not dead. Current seed range: Next Four Out.

Mississippi State (64 RPI, 123 SOS)– The Bulldogs are in somewhat of the same predicament as their rival Rebels with a weak RPI and just one win over the RPI top-50 (Old Dominion, neutral). Luckily for Rick Stansbury, he leads Ole Miss by two games in the standings. The games are slightly more difficult, though- at South Carolina, at Auburn and vs. Tennessee. The last one is imperative because it would give Mississippi State a much-needed win over the RPI top-25. The Bulldogs are on the fringe of the bracket and must go at least 2-1 in their final three games. Current seed range: Last Four Out.

Others

Locks: Butler, Gonzaga

Northern Iowa (22 RPI, 132 SOS)– Their stunning loss at Evansville wiped out all the good fortune stemming from the BracketBuster win over Old Dominion. As long as the Panthers are not upset by either Illinois State at home in the season finale or in their first game at the MVC Tournament, Northern Iowa should still garner a bid despite the slip-ups as of late. The overall record is just too stellar and they did knock off fellow bubble team Siena (if the Saints don’t win the MAAC Tournament). Their top-25 RPI also helps greatly considering they’ve only played one this season- in practice. Current seed range: 7-8 (auto bid).

UAB (32 RPI, 98 SOS)– The non-conference win over Cincinnati is looking less and less impressive, so right now UAB is really pining on their win over Butler as their ticket to the Dance. The Blazers will be tested in early March with two C-USA games vs. Memphis and at UTEP. If they’re swept in those two games, UAB is on the outside looking in. UAB is just 1-0 vs. the RPI top-50 and lost to UTEP and Memphis in their initial meetings. Current seed range: 10-12.

Utah State (35 RPI, 84 SOS)– The Aggies haven’t lost since a January 4 trip to Louisiana Tech and have seen their RPI jolt up about 40 spots since that last defeat. Stew Morrill’s team is 22-6 (11-2) overall with a portfolio-enhancing win over BYU but bad losses to Utah, Long Beach State and New Mexico State. The only way I see them considered for an at-large bid is if they win out the regular season and are stunned in the WAC Tournament finals. Current seed range: 12-13 (auto bid).

Siena (36 RPI, 115 SOS)– The Saints just simply lack quality wins out-of-conference at this point. They’ve lost to Georgia Tech, Temple, Northern Iowa and Butler, putting Siena in a position where they must win the MAAC Tournament to receive a bid in all likelihood. Current seed range: 12-13 (auto bid).

Old Dominion (42 RPI, 91 SOS)– The Monarchs have surpassed Northeastern in the CAA standings and it appears they’ll earn the #1 seed in a crucial CAA Tournament. This team is an interesting case: three wins over the RPI top 50 including a victory at Georgetown, They also have the RPI of a prototypical bubble team. Beat VCU on Saturday and reach the CAA Tournament finals and the Monarchs should be fine for a bid. Current seed range: 10-12 (auto bid).

Saint Mary’s (47 RPI, 135 SOS)– The Gaels are in a familiar spot on the bubble. They could really use their two-point loss to Vanderbilt in the win column, but Saint Mary’s does have improving wins over San Diego State and at Utah State, an arena where nobody wins. What if Saint Mary’s wins out but loses to Gonzaga for the third time this season in the WCC Finals? Current seed range: Last Four In.

UTEP (53 RPI, 133 SOS)– The Miners edged Southern Miss on the road last night to improve to 12-1 and have a legitimate shot to finish at 15-1 in Conference USA with games at home vs. Rice and UAB and a visit to Marshall sandwiched in between. Due to their lack of quality wins in non-conference play (best was Oklahoma), the Miners most likely need to win those three games to earn an at-large unless they make the C-USA Tournament finals. The chance for an at-large is definitely there. Current seed range: 9-10 (auto bid).