Rush The Court

The ACC received nine bids to the NCAA Tournament today — the same number as a year ago — and is well-represented at the top of the bracket. Virginia rode its superb regular season and ACC Tournament championship all the way to the top of the field as the NCAA Tourney’s #1 overall seed. Tobacco road rivals North Carolina and Duke each landed on the #2 seed line with the Tar Heels earning the preferred Charlotte pod for the first weekend. Some late bid-stealers (Davidson and San Diego State, notably) burst the bubble for two ACC teams — Louisville and Notre Dame didn’t make the cut — but Syracuse somehow squeaked into the field. Here are some quick best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the nine ACC teams in this year’s field.

Virginia (#1 South)

• Best Case: The Cavaliers ride the nation’s top defense all the way to San Antonio, giving Tony Bennett his first Final Four appearance and a shot at the school’s first-ever National Championship.
• Worst Case: Virginia’s offense bogs down against a team that has enough NBA-level talent to make shots against the pack-line defense. Both Arizona and Kentucky fit that description, and one of them will likely play the Cavaliers in the Sweet Sixteen.

North Carolina (#2 West)

• Best Case: Joel Berry turns into Mr. March again, leading the veteran Tar Heels back to the Final Four for the third consecutive year.
• Worst Case: The threes don’t connect for North Carolina and they can’t get enough stops against a hot Michigan squad in the Sweet Sixteen.

Duke (#2 Midwest)

• Best Case: Duke plays to its potential on offense and opponents continue to struggle against the Blue Devils’ zone defense, giving Coach K a chance to win his sixth National Championship.
• Worst Case: Duke’s prize freshmen succumb to postseason pressure, and once again, a talented Blue Devil team underachieves in the Big Dance — perhaps as early as the Second Round.

Clemson (#5 Midwest)

• Best Case: Clemson’s experience in so many close ACC games enables the Tigers to reach the Sweet Sixteen for just the third time in school history.
• Worst Case: After a six-year NCAA Tournament drought, the Tigers play tight as a higher-seeded team and get picked off in their opener by a solid New Mexico State squad.

Miami (FL) (#6 South)

• Best Case: The Hurricanes make enough shots and continue their close game acumen, upsetting Tennessee in the Second Round and advancing to Atlanta.
• Worst Case: Miami doesn’t have enough firepower to get past a very tough squad from Loyola-Chicago in the opener. The Ramblers (KenPom #41) are rated very similarly to the Hurricanes (#36) in advanced metrics.

Virginia Tech (#8 East)

• Best Case: Virginia Tech upsets #1 seed Villanova in the Second Round with a barrage of three-pointers to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. The Hokies should be confident in such a match-up based on their wins over Virginia, North Carolina and Duke during the regular season.
• Worst Case: The smaller Hokies get beat up in the paint and fall in their opener to a a very talented Alabama team that has eight wins against KenPom top-50 teams.

N.C. State (#9 Midwest)

• Best Case: In a repeat performance from 2015, the Wolfpack win a squeaker in the First Round and then upsets #1 Seed Kansas — just as they did to Villanova three years ago — to advance to the Sweet Sixteen in Kevin Keatts‘ first year at the helm.
• Worst Case: NC State can’t make enough threes to overcome its porous defense against a veteran, battle-tested Seton Hall squad in the First Round.

Florida State (#9 West)

• Best Case: Xavier has shown a tendency to keep inferior opponents close, which is right in Leonard Hamilton’s wheelhouse. The Seminoles have pulled out seemingly a million one-possession games in the last few years so they may be able to pick off the top-seeded Musketeers.
• Worst Case: Florida State once again comes out flat in a game away from Tallahassee and goes down to Missouri for yet another early exit from the Big Dance.

Syracuse (First Four – #11 Midwest)

• Best Case: With Michigan State looming in the Second Round, the Orange’s ceiling appears to be a win in Dayton followed by an upset over TCU.
• Worst Case:  Syracuse often struggles to score, which could be problematic against an Arizona State squad that has plenty of offensive firepower.