They say time flies when you’re having fun, so by the transitive property, they might as well say time flies during college basketball season. But seriously, this season seems to have sped by. Maybe it’s just me. Maybe it’s because a busy schedule has eaten up my down time. Maybe it’s something subconscious. But I genuinely feel like conference play just started and yet we’re already approaching March. The logical explanation for that? Maybe it’s because the overarching narratives of the season have been in constant flux. Or — another way of putting it — maybe it’s because Selection Sunday is just 25 days away and we really only know one thing: Kentucky is good. Really good. After that, everything is tight — tight with two heavily enunciated ‘t’s. According to ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, eight teams have a 25 percent or greater chance at a No. 1 seed, but only Kentucky’s odds surpass 60 percent. And moving down the hierarchy, there’s just so much additional uncertainty. There’s been a definitive top eight for over a month now, and nobody below that threshold appears too intent on breaking into it. Teams like Iowa State and North Carolina have invariably followed up big wins with baffling losses, and teams like Utah and Louisville simply haven’t separated themselves in a meaningful way. Even further down the Top 25, the bubble is nothing more than a mess. But that’s the case every year. And even as all-encompassing as it is right now, there are bound to be teams that stage late surges to put themselves in contention. There are also bound to be teams that spin out of control in the other direction. To put it succinctly… there is bound to be madness. That might as well be a slogan for college hoops in general, but especially this year.
One for the Money
North Carolina at Duke | Wednesday, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN
No matter which team you root for, no matter where you live, there’s only one game this week that is must-watch television. And even if Dickie V. won’t be on the call, you have to tune in for the first of two battles between North Carolina and Duke. When you think of college sports, almost all of the notions of amateur athletics are embodied by the Tobacco Road rivalry. Games are played with passion and intensity. They are played with unrelenting pressure and in front of hostile crowds. They are played enveloped by the shadows of history, in front of legends and ghosts of years past. They are laden with folklore and religiously maintained traditions. They turn the otherwise forgotten into heroes and the otherwise successful into villains. The Duke-Carolina games are as singularly powerful as nearly any regular season game in any sport, and this year’s annual rite of passage begins Wednesday night.
The rivalry has produced countless classics over the years, and there’s no reason this season’s showdown won’t give us another one. Duke has dominated the series in recent years by winning eight of the last 11 meetings, but this year’s Tar Heels have two things the Blue Devils don’t: first, depth — even without Theo Pinson available, Roy Williams can go nine deep — and second, the merciless ability to attack the offensive glass. Furthermore, when you look back at Carolina’s recent wins, the formula for its success is pretty clear. UNC’s offensive rebounding percentage in its win in Chapel Hill last year was an astounding 44.1 percent versus 25 percent in the loss in Durham. Rebounding that leads to second-chance opportunities will play a huge role in this game, but a Carolina defense that gave up 1.44 points per possession to Pitt on Saturday will have to be much better. Expect to see a much more focused group of Tar Heels take the floor in Cameron Indoor Stadium on Wednesday night.
What Does the No. 1 seed Picture Look Like?
Outside of Kentucky, there are several favorites but no locks for the top seed line. In fact, at the annual Mock NCAA Tournament Selection event that took place over the weekend, a group of media members bumped Gonzaga off the top line in favor of Wisconsin. The Badgers have a strong case for inclusion, of course, but the Zags carry only a single loss — a road nail-biter at Arizona. It’s tough to exclude Mark Few’s team with that resume. Virginia probably has the next-best résumé, but the Cavaliers have looked like a different team without Justin Anderson in the lineup. Anderson’s health, and the way in which the Selection Committee interprets Virginia’s performance without him, will be important. As for the others, Duke has a few shaky losses but a plethora of great wins. So does Kansas. Arizona is also still hanging around. And seemingly nobody is talking about a Villanova group with only two losses that could very well run the table the rest of the way. Could the Committee really give a No. 2 seed to a 32-2 Big East regular season and tournament champion?
Anyway, a few games could change the No. 1 seed picture this week. Kansas’ hopes already took a hit when the Jayhawks lost a thriller to West Virginia in Morgantown last night. North Carolina could deal Duke a significant blow on Wednesday. Wisconsin has a potentially tricky road trip to Penn State on the docket. Even Arizona could be tested by a hot UCLA team in Tucson. But the biggest game of all is elsewhere out west — in Moraga, California, to be precise, where Gonzaga will face its final big road test of the season at Saint Mary’s. If the Zags take care of business there, they’ll be even closer to a second perfect conference record in the last three years. If that’s the case, it’s going to be awfully tough to deny Mark Few’s team one of those coveted No. 1 seeds.
Crunch Time on the Bubble
- St. John’s – It is an enormous week for the Red Storm, a team that is riding a three-game winning streak and just earned a massive road win at Xavier. This week the Johnnies have games at Georgetown and home against Seton Hall — one potentially huge addition to the résumé and one potentially ugly detractor.
- Xavier – While St. John’s is trending up, the Musketeers are headed in the opposite direction. Xavier has lost three of its last five games, including two at home, and one of the those was to Creighton. Everything could be righted this week with wins against crosstown rival Cincinnati and over Butler, but a pair of losses would push Chris Mack’s group, one of the nation’s most underrated offensive teams, squarely onto the bubble.
- Texas – The Longhorns have put together a nice little three-game winning streak against the bottom of the Big 12, but Oklahoma and Iowa State come calling this week. The Longhorns probably don’t belong here because they aren’t actually on the bubble, but they were flagging. We’ll find out soon if Texas has really flipped a switch or if it was simply feasting on weaker competition.
- SEC Middlemen – Lunardi’s last two teams in, Texas A&M and LSU, do battle on Tuesday night… does it get any more bubblicious than that? And is bubblicious even a word? Seriously, though, this is a huge game for both teams. And elsewhere in this league, the Tournament statuses of Ole Miss and Georgia are still very much up in the air. If the SEC is going to earn six bids, these are the weeks when the Rebels and Bulldogs need two wins.
- Purdue – The Boilermakers have a really interesting résumé. If they beat Indiana on Thursday night, interesting becomes a synonym for eye-catching. If they lose that game, it becomes a synonym for questionable.
Other Notable Games
- Kentucky at Tennessee, Tuesday – The pursuit of perfection heads to Rocky Top tonight… upset alert?
- Davidson at George Washington, Wednesday – The Colonials are all but out of the NCAA at-large picture, but Davidson is very much in it. However, this game will be a tricky proposition for the A-10 newcomers.
- Iowa State at Oklahoma State, Wednesday – Just another Top 25 Big 12 clash…
- Temple at SMU, Thursday – Apologies to the analyst who made this point over the weekend — I can’t remember who it was, but… Temple still hasn’t lost a game when it has had its full rotation healthy and eligible. SMU should put that record to the test here.
- West Virginia at Oklahoma State, Saturday – Another one… ho-hum.