Rush The Court

It’s another weekend of conference play in the ACC, so let’s take a look at the match-ups from an advanced statistics perspective. All statistics used are for results in ACC conference games only along with team rankings (#1-#15) in each category. For each game we will show how the two teams compare in efficiency ratings and the four factors, offense versus defense. We will also look at interesting areas of particular strength and weakness that could hold the key to the outcomes of these games. All numbers are from Ken Pomeroy’s site and are current through games of January 29, 2014. The games are presented in the order of best combined Pomeroy overall team rankings (all times EST). This weekend features two heavyweight matchups featuring the four teams that are clearly the class of the conference thus far.

Saturday – Duke (17-4, 6-2 ACC) @ Syracuse (20-0, 7-0 ACC) – ESPN (6:30 PM)

A record Carrier Dome crowd is expected for Duke’s much-anticipated first trip to Syracuse. ESPN’s “College GameDay” will be there as well, adding to the hoopla. Duke hopes it can continue to play as well as it has in the last five games. During that stretch, the Blue Devils’ much maligned defense has held opponents to an excellent 93 points per 100 possessions. Their most impressive win came Monday night on the road over Pittsburgh, whose only other conference loss came at the Carrier Dome in a close game. An unsung hero lately has been Duke’s Amile Jefferson, who is the only player in the ACC’s top three in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. Syracuse just keeps rolling along, rarely blowing teams out but always executing extremely well down the stretch of games. Freshman point guard Tyler Ennis has been amazing all season, but has even been more impressive in ACC play. Despite playing so many minutes, including going the full 40 in three of the last four games, Ennis seems to be at his best in the last five minutes of games. He does whatever the Orange needs him to do, and has become a more consistent scorer with double figure points in all seven ACC games. There will be a lot of talent on the floor, particularly at the forward spot, with each team having two versatile 6’8″ frontcourt players, C.J. Fair and Jerami Grant for Syracuse and Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood for Duke. Another key could be if either team’s sharp shooter, Trevor Cooney of the Orange or Andre Dawkins for the Blue Devils, gets free and knocks down multiple threes. Naturally, whenever a team plays Syracuse we have to look at how they will try and deal with that famously active zone defense. Duke has done pretty well against other zones but nobody plays it quite like the Orange. The Blue Devils will probably try and slide their forwards in and around the lane to use their quickness, but they will have to adjust to how well Syracuse reacts to the ball. Tempo will also play a big role, with Duke wanting to force the pace defensively, hoping to wear down the Orange and make them use their weaker bench. But other teams have tried to do that and found out that Ennis is hard to speed up.

Stat Watch. Deflections will be the plan for the Orange as they lead the ACC in steals and are third in blocks. Of course another important factor will be Duke’s ability to hit three pointers as they lead the league with 9.9 makes per game. Dawkins comes off a red hot night, knocking down 6-of-7 in Monday’s game. Look for Syracuse to attack Duke on the offensive glass. The Blue Devils have been good on the boards lately, but Syracuse has been great at it all year, including Wednesday night, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds in the win over Wake Forest.

Sunday – Virginia (16-5, 7-1 ACC) @ Pittsburgh (18-3, 6-2 ACC) – ESPNU (12:30 PM)

In the other weekend headliner, Virginia visits Pittsburgh on Super Bowl Sunday in a match-up of two very similar teams.  Both teams are rated very highly by the computers, but not so much in the human polls. This is due to the lack of eye-catching wins by either team. Pittsburgh’s highest rated win is over Stanford (#43 in kenpom) and the Panthers have lost to all three top 20 teams they have faced. Virginia has played a better schedule and therefore has more losses, but the Cavaliers are only 2-4 versus the kenpom top 30, and both of those wins are over the same team, #24 Florida State. At least one of these squads will get its best win of the year in this matchup. Both teams can count on a versatile senior wing to lead the way offensively. Pittsburgh’s Lamar Patterson and Virginia’s Joe Harris are extremely efficient scorers, with both ranked in the league’s top six in individual offensive rating.  The young point guards in this game, the Panthers’ James Robinson and the Cavaliers’ London Perrantes have the top two two assist-to-turnover ratios in the conference. Even though both teams have the reputation of preferring a slow tempo, they actually are each above the league average of 62.7 possessions per game. Of course that’s not saying much as the ACC ranks last among all conferences in the country with regards to pace of play. Virginia is a more balanced offensive team so Harris does not have to shoulder as much of the load for his team as does Patterson. As Duke showed on Monday night, if you can find a way to limit Patterson’s production, the Panthers are beatable, even at the Peterson Events Center. Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon continues to be one of the quiet stars in ACC league play, averaging 15.1 PPG on 51.1 percent shooting. A model of consistency, Brogdon’s point totals in the last five games are 17, 16, 16, 18, and 16.

Stat Watch. On paper the Virginia offense and the Pittsburgh defense looks like a stalemate in almost every category. Things are also pretty even on the other end, but there are a couple of matchups to watch there. Pittsburgh is in the middle of the league in committing turnovers while Virginia is the best at forcing them. In fact the Cavaliers are #1 in turnover margin at +5.88. Pittsburgh will try and take advantage of a small weakness in Virginia defense – the Cavaliers are #11 in opponents’ free throw attempts. The Panthers lead the ACC in free throw attempts, at just under 28 per game.

Saturday – Clemson (13-6, 4-3 ACC) @ Florida State (13-7, 4-4 ACC) – ESPN2 (3:00 PM)

This is a big game for both, as one of these teams will lose its third consecutive game, and the other will gain its fifth ACC win and sport a winning league record. Clemson started out 4-1 but came crashing back down to earth with two blowout road losses to Pittsburgh and North Carolina. At least the Tigers have had five days off to try and regroup. Probably no team relies more on one player than Clemson does K.J. McDaniels. Not only is he the Tigers’ only double figure scorer (16.2), but McDaniels also leads the team in rebounds, blocks and steals. He will need some help though for Clemson to win in Tallahassee, especially considering Florida State dominated the earlier meeting, 56-41 on January 9 at Clemson. In that game, the offensively challenged Tigers were totally inept, shooting 30 percent and committing 18 turnovers.

Stat Watch. Perhaps no other good team in America has two more glaring weaknesses than does Florida State. The Seminoles are last in the conference in defensive rebounding and offensive turnover percent. In the first meeting, Clemson only forced 11 Florida State miscues but they did grab 15 offensive rebounds so perhaps that’s where they can get some easy scoring chances. Otherwise it shapes up as another tough road outing for the Tigers. There’s no getting around the fact that Clemson will probably struggle to make shots against the Seminoles’ defense that only allows 38.3 percent shooting – so they better rebound a bunch of those misses.

Saturday – N.C. State (14-7, 4-4 ACC) @ North Carolina (13-7, 3-4 ACC) – ESPN2 (1:00 PM)