Just as Indiana planned on capturing the outright Big Ten championship and all but securing the #1 overall seed on Tuesday, the Hoosiers lost on senior night to Ohio State. Twenty-four hours later, Georgetown — a sexy pick lately to land a #1 seed — lost to Villanova, leaving the Hoyas’ chances at a top seed at a minimum heading into the Big East Tournament. The overall #1 seed now appears to be a three-way race between Indiana, Duke and Kansas. The Jayhawks have quietly won seven in a row and will win their ninth consecutive Big 12 championship with a victory at Baylor Saturday or a loss by Kansas State (which faces Oklahoma State on the road). Kansas will need to win out through the Big 12 Tournament and could benefit from losses by Indiana and Duke if they want the overall top seed, but a #1 seed seems close to a sure thing. That’s a far cry from a month ago. Here’s how I’d handicap the top seeds as of today.
Safe Bets For a #1 Seed
- Duke (26-4, 8-2 in last 10): Getting Ryan Kelly back was huge, especially with him dropping 36 points in his return, a big win at home over Miami.
- Indiana (25-5, 7-3 in last 10): Still the best team in the country, but the gap is closing. They need to beat Michigan this weekend to avoid losing three out of four.
- Kansas (26-4, 7-3 in last 10, won seven in a row): If they can win at Baylor and win the Big 12 Tournament it would be 11 wins in a row, locking up a #1 seed.
Still In The Hunt
- Gonzaga (29-2, won 12 in a row): More wins than anyone else in the country, but playing in the WCC with a bad SOS will hurt the Zags. I wouldn’t be shocked if they get jumped by one of the teams below.
- Louisville: (25-5): Like Kansas, they went through a tough three-game losing streak in conference play but have piled up the wins since, winning nine of their last 10.
- Miami (23-6): Last night’s loss to Georgia Tech probably sealed a #2 seed for Miami. They have nice wins over Michigan State and Duke, but the bad losses to Florida Gulf Coast, Indiana State, Wake Forest, and now Georgia Tech are too much to overcome.
Wild Card
- New Mexico (26-4): The Lobos have more RPI top 50 wins than Indiana, Miami, Louisville, and Gonzaga and they’ve played the nation’s third toughest schedule.
But not everyone in the Big 12 can compete for a #1 seed like Kansas. Oklahoma State lost on the road at Iowa State last night. And as Gary Parrish says here, the Cyclones are now all but in the NCAA Tournament. They have three wins against the RPI top 50 and got help as other bubbles teams like Alabama, Arkansas, and Baylor each lost this week. Baylor was a near-lock for the NCAA Tournament on Valentine’s Day. Five losses in six games later, and the Bears need to beat Kansas on Saturday to have any hopes at a bid. The Bears are 1-8 against top 50 teams this season and have only four wins against the RPI top 100. Seven of their 16 wins against Division I opponents have come against teams outside the RPI top 200. Everyone else — Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma –– looks to be playing for seeding at this point.