Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Another Friday, another edition of the official RTC bubble watch:

New Locks

St. John’s 16-9 (8-5), 16 RPI, 3 SOS– The Johnnies move into lock status following a two-game road winning streak at Big East bubble teams Cincinnati and Marquette. Steve Lavin’s team has collected four wins against the RPI top-11 and welcome Pittsburgh to the Garden on Saturday for another major scalp opportunity. St. John’s seniors will be dancing for the first time in their careers.

Louisville 19-7 (8-5), 25 RPI, 28 SOS– Despite a setback at Cincinnati, the Cardinals effectively clinched a bid with their home win over Syracuse last Saturday to go along with RPI top-25 victories at Connecticut and at home against St. John’s and West Virginia. Any team that notches ten wins in the Big East is safely in the field and Louisville has games against Rutgers and Providence still remaining.

Arizona 22-4 (11-2), 17 RPI, 74 SOS– The Wildcats have only beaten one NCAA Tournament team this season, a home victory over UCLA, but a #17 RPI, 22 overall victories and a likely Pac-10 regular season championship is enough of a pedigree to easily garner a bid. Two of Arizona’s four losses came against the top two teams in the RPI, Kansas and BYU.

Vanderbilt 19-6 (7-4), 14 RPI, 9 SOS– The Commodores solidified a bid last Saturday behind John Jenkins’ heroics in a win over Kentucky and only cemented their NCAA status by coming from behind to win at Georgia on Wednesday. The RPI/SOS is fantastic and Vanderbilt has a clear path to second place in the SEC East. Wins over North Carolina and Saint Mary’s also aid the cause.

Atlantic 10

Xavier 19-6 (10-1), 19 RPI, 30 SOS- The Musketeers passed their toughest remaining test at Duquesne last Sunday and now face an easy schedule the rest of the way in the Atlantic 10, so it’s only a matter of time before they move into lock status. Xavier will be  favored in their last five contests before the A-10 Tournament where they’ll enter as the top seed. Xavier boast a stellar RPI/SOS, beat Temple and won at Georgia.

Temple 20-5 (10-2), 32 RPI, 113 SOS– Fran Dunphy’s team is currently playing their best basketball of the season and showed it last night by dismantling a Richmond team that badly needed a marquee win. The Owls toppled #5 RPI Georgetown back in December and haven’t suffered a loss against a sub-100 RPI squad. Temple is also inching closer to lock status.

Richmond 20-7 (9-3), 69 RPI, 170 SOS– The Spiders may need to make the NCAA Tournament on the back of a deep Atlantic 10 conference tournament run. Oh, and they should also root for Purdue in the process, as their upset win over the Boilermakers is the main bragging point of a lackluster resume. The RPI is being anchored by a #226 non-conference SOS. Richmond is probably out as of today.

Duquesne 16-7 (9-2), 73 RPI, 133 SOS– The upstart Dukes fell to West Virginia, George Mason and Xavier by single digits and could badly use one of those over in the win column right now. Their only bragging point is a home win over Temple and the RPI/SOS screams NIT. The Dukes have two games remaining they badly need to win — at Dayton and at Richmond – to even garner consideration.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Boston College 16-9 (6-5), 45 RPI, 18 SOS– The Eagles boast a superior RPI to their ACC bubble counterparts, but have all the makings of a team that’ll be debated vigorously in the selection room on March 13. They’re 1-5 vs. the RPI top-50 with a November win over Texas A&M and three road games at North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Virginia remaining. If the Eagles win in Charlottesville and beat Miami and Wake at home to get to 9-7 in the ACC, it may be hard to keep them out during a soft bubble season.

Florida State 18-7 (8-3), 48 RPI, 88 SOS- Leonard Hamilton needs to make sure his team doesn’t completely go in the tank without Chris Singleton. They appear safely in the field now boosted by that win over Duke, but a complete collapse without their star player would give the committee signals that Florida State should be re-evaluated, especially if it’s uncertain Singleton returns. With Maryland off the radar, FSU only faces one NCAA team, North Carolina at home, the rest of the way.

Virginia Tech 17-7 (7-4), 57 RPI, 111 SOS– Seth Greenberg ran into some bad luck with his scheduling as Kansas State, UNLV, Mississippi State and the ACC as a whole all underachieved this season and his SOS catapulted as a result. Tech’s best wins are home against Florida State and neutral over Oklahoma State, and with a bubblicious RPI, obviously the Hokies have work to do. They’re in as of this moment, but it may come down to the two-game homestand in late February with Duke and BC coming to Blacksburg.

Clemson 17-9 (6-6), 76 RPI, 104 SOS– Clemson has blown two golden opportunities to stay in the bubble fight, losing by two at home to ascending North Carolina then falling to NC State on the road in a game they had to win. Lose at Miami on Sunday and Brad Brownell’s hopes for a surprise bid are officially over with a trip to Duke still on the slate. Clemson’s best win is a blowout of Florida State at home.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas.

Texas A&M 19-5 (7-4), 26 RPI, 48 SOS– The Aggies have dodged some major bullets lately with three-point wins over Colorado and Texas Tech and just need to take care of bottom-feeders Oklahoma and Texas Tech in College Station to secure a winning Big 12 record. Taking down Oklahoma State this Saturday on the road would move them into lock status. A&M has out-of-conference wins over Temple and Washington and are 5-3 overall vs. the RPI top-50.

Missouri 19-6 (6-5), 28 RPI, 75 SOS– Missouri is 0-5 on the road in the Big 12, but that slump could end Saturday with a visit to Iowa State. The good news is that Mike Anderson’s squad has taken care of business at home with wins over Vanderbilt, Illinois (neutral), Old Dominion and Kansas State. Missouri has a tricky final four games – Baylor, at Kansas State, at Nebraska, Kansas – so it’d be prudent if they didn’t slip up in Ames tomorrow.

Kansas State 16-9 (5-6), 30 RPI, 5 SOS– The Wildcats resuscitated their season on Monday by trouncing the #1 RPI team in the nation in Kansas and notched their first RPI top-50 win in eight tries. Prior to the Kansas win, Frank Martin’s best wins were Virginia Tech and Baylor at home, so defeating the Jayhawks was crucial. With a stellar RPI/SOS and four winnable games remaining (the only near-sure loss at Texas), KSU could pave their way into the field after all.

Oklahoma State 16-9 (4-7), 50 RPI, 45 SOS– Oklahoma State needs Big 12 wins and fast. Their contest tomorrow with Texas A&M is a must-win to stay in the bubble watch. A trip to Lawrence looms next and the Cowboys might be staring at 4-9 in the Big 12 at that point. Their last three games — Texas Tech, Baylor, at Oklahoma — are all winnable. The Pokes beat Kansas State and Missouri in conference and Alabama out of Big 12 competition.

Baylor 16-8 (6-5), 60 RPI, 60 SOS– A lackluster non-conference SOS and only six wins against the RPI top-150 means Scott Drew’s team sits squarely on the bubble. Their best win is at Texas A&M, but regrettable losses at Iowa State and Oklahoma linger. It’ll be difficult to win at Missouri or Oklahoma State, two notoriously solid teams in their own arena, so home dates with Texas A&M and Texas will prove absolutely crucial considering the Bears best non-Big 12 win by RPI is Lipscomb.

Big East

Locks: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, St. John’s, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville.

Cincinnati 20-6 (7-6), 43 RPI, 116 SOS– The Bearcats flubbed one opportunity and took advantage of another this week by first falling to St. John’s then soundly beating Louisville on their home floor. Due to the ascendance of Xavier and St. John’s (Cincy won in NYC on January 22), the Bearcats now boast three RPI top-25 wins in nine tries, a fact that may supersede their #287 non-conference SOS. Three more golden opportunities remain: home vs. Connecticut, at Marquette and home vs. Georgetown during Cincinnati’s final push.

Marquette 15-11 (6-7), 66 RPI, 31 SOS– Marquette is really playing with fire. The Golden Eagles fell to St. John’s at home this week in a game most expected them to win, especially due to their plethora of close losses to quality competition this season. Luckily for Marquette, they’ll be favored in four of their last five games. Win those and a 10-8 Big East team should be in, especially since Marquette has beaten Syracuse, West Virginia and Notre Dame, albeit all at home.

Big Ten

Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.

Illinois 17-9 (7-6), 36 RPI, 20 SOS- Illinois is going to Dance on Selection Sunday barring a total meltdown, but that’s not out of the realm of possibility the way the Illini are trending. Their Saturday primetime showdown with Michigan State is about as crucial as it gets, although more so for the Spartans. Illinois has two RPI top-20 wins at home over North Carolina and Wisconsin, played a stellar schedule and still welcome Iowa and Indiana to Champaign in between likely losses at Ohio State and Purdue.

Minnesota 17-9 (6-8), 39 RPI, 29 SOS– Despite three wins over the RPI top-25, the Gophers are now 6-8 in the Big Ten, 1-5 in their last six games and clearly aren’t the same team without Al Nolen running the show. Luckily for Tubby Smith, the RPI/SOS is still respectable and the last four games on the Gophers slate are all extremely winnable – Michigan State, Michigan, at Northwestern, Penn State. Because Minnesota isn’t in desperate need of an RPI boost or a quality win, that schedule is just what the doctor ordered.

Michigan State 13-11 (6-7), 46 RPI, 8 SOS– Anyone who watched the Spartans go toe-to-toe with projected #1 seed Ohio State on Tuesday knows this team isn’t dead yet, but if they throw up a stinker on Saturday against Illinois then it may be too late. Another big time opportunity looms with Purdue coming to East Lansing on February 27. Michigan State played the #18 non-conference SOS and are 3-8 vs. the RPI top-50 with wins over Washington (neutral), Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Penn State 14-11 (7-7), 59 RPI, 6 SOS– It’s not going to be easy, but Penn State can climb their way back into serious discussion after they took care of Minnesota last night in a must-win game. The Nittany Lions now have four RPI top-50 wins at home against conference competition and lost by one both at Ohio State and at Purdue. The slate is daunting: at Wisconsin, Ohio State and at Minnesota still remain. Talor Battle is going to have to stir up some real magic for Penn State to dance.

Michigan 15-11 (6-8), 61 RPI, 19 SOS– Folks have been really eager to kick Michigan to the curb, but I’m not ready to pronounce them totally dead yet. Their best non-conference win is Harvard, so the Wolverines need to win out the regular season to get to 10-8 and be seriously considered barring a miracle Big Ten Tournament run. There’s not an incredibly daunting game in their last four, though: at Iowa, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Michigan State.

Conference USA

Memphis 20-6 (8-3), 31 RPI, 38 SOS– Memphis is currently barely in, but it’s certainly not a comfortable situation for Josh Pastner and Co. Four RPI top-50 wins look nice compared to other bubble squads until you realize all four have come against UAB and Southern Miss, two teams likely destined for the NIT. Memphis did beat fellow bubble team Gonzaga in Spokane. Winning the C-USA regular season title would help the cause and the Tigers play an important game at UTEP on February 26.

UAB 18-7 (8-4), 34 RPI, 57 SOS– Despite a stellar RPI, it’s a stretch to think UAB can earn an at-large bid after losing to Memphis this past week. They’ll need to win at Southern Miss on March 2 just to gather their first RPI top-50 victory. Their best win to date is home over UTEP and the Blazers are 0-5 vs. the RPI top-50. Mike Davis’ team must win their final four regular season games just to have a shot at an at-large, but the Conference USA Tournament will be wide open.

Colonial

George Mason 22-5 (14-2), 22 RPI, 63 SOS– Mason hasn’t lost in over a month, just trounced desperate bubble team VCU in Richmond and boast efficiency numbers to back up their legitimacy, so this team is clearly headed in the right direction for an at-large bid. They were a #9 seed in my latest Bracketology and should finish the CAA with a 16-2 mark. In today’s bubble climate, despite only two so-so RPI top-50 wins over Harvard and Old Dominion, that may be enough.

Old Dominion 21-6 (12-4), 33 RPI, 76 SOS– The Monarchs have a real shot to give the CAA two bids at the very minimum come Selection Sunday. ODU beat Clemson, Xavier and Richmond en route to a November tournament title, beat George Mason, won at VCU and really challenged themselves in the non-conference. Old Dominion has a chance to pick up a top-50 RPI win when they welcome Cleveland State to Virginia on Saturday.

Horizon

Butler 18-9 (11-5), 49 RPI, 54 SOS– Butler: back from the dead? Possibly. They’re going to win their last seven Horizon games, swept Cleveland State and did beat Florida State out in Hawaii, but that’s not enough to offset five losses against sub-100 RPI teams in conference play. Although the bubble is weak, Butler has to win the Horizon League Tournament to make another compelling March run, and, barring a miracle, they won’t be hosting the conference tournament for the first time in years.

Missouri Valley

Wichita State 21-5 (13-3), 51 RPI, 121 SOS- Wichita State-VCU tonight to kick off BracketBusters is essentially an at-large elimination game. The loser will likely have to win their conference tournament and the winner still has plenty of work to do to ensure a bid. Wichita’s record is respectable, but they have three losses at home in MVC play, including to #206 RPI Southern Illinois, and their best non-conference win is Tulsa. The Shockers are going for quantity over quality at this point. The season finale at Missouri State will be enormous.

Mountain West

Locks: BYU, San Diego State.

UNLV 19-7 (7-5), 29 RPI, 26 SOS– The Rebels missed on a tremendous opportunity when they lost to San Diego State at home last Saturday, but an even bigger one looms this weekend with a visit to Colorado State. UNLV is 2-6 vs. the RPI top-50 with wins over Wisconsin and Kansas State (in KC) and only one bad loss to UC Santa Barbara, although the Rebels did fall to CSU at home on January 19. If the Rebels can sweep their CSU-New Mexico road trip, they should win out and will be a lock for the NCAA Tournament, but a disappointing next five days could make the situation plenty more tenuous.

Colorado State 17-7 (8-3), 38 RPI, 53 SOS- The Rams were one of my last teams in on Monday and since then beat downtrodden TCU on the road. As mentioned, their clash with UNLV tomorrow is a perfect chance for the Rams to garner an RPI top-50 win against a beatable team on their home floor. CSU still has to go to BYU and San Diego State, making the UNLV contest even more crucial. CSU lost to both BYU and SDSU at home and also fell to Hampton and Sam Houston State, two sub-140 RPI teams, in the non-conference.

Pac-10

Locks: Arizona.

UCLA 19-7 (10-3), 37 RPI, 44 SOS– The Bruins are in decent shape with two standout wins against BYU and St. John’s away from conference play and a 10-3 Pac-10 record. Lucky for UCLA they did pick up those out-of-conference wins because they haven’t beaten Arizona or Washington. They welcome the Wildcats to LA on February 26 and travel to Seattle the following game. UCLA beat Washington State on December 29 at Pauley and face the Cougars again in the season finale. There are plenty of roadblocks remaining on the back-loaded UCLA schedule.

Washington 17-7 (9-4), 39 RPI, 80 SOS- The Huskies have now won three in a row against the bottom of the Pac-10 and have three remaining games that will be key: at Arizona, UCLA, Washington State. If the Huskies can upset Arizona in Tucson, they’ll move close to lock status. Washington has wins at UCLA and home vs. Arizona, but their best non-conference win is Portland.

Washington State 17-9 (7-7), 72 RPI, 103 SOS– Unless they win at rival Washington, the Cougars are going to have to make a Pac-10 Tournament run. What’s aiding their cause are two wins over fellow bubble teams Baylor and Gonzaga, along with an earlier seven-point victory over Washington at home. Wazzu has also suffered bad losses to Oregon and Stanford and are just 1-5 vs. the RPI top-50.

SEC

Locks: Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky.

Tennessee 16-10 (6-5), 24 RPI, 1 SOS– Despite their mediocre overall record and a handful of bad losses, Tennessee can move into lock territory if they win their next two games at home vs. Georgia and at Vanderbilt. Five wins vs. the RPI top-50 – including Villanova, Pitt, Vandy and at Georgia – and the most challenging schedule in the nation are the main reasons why. Tennessee also has two sneaky good wins over Belmont.

Georgia 17-8 (6-5), 44 RPI, 32 SOS– The Bulldogs are doing their best to be left out of the NCAA Tournament, blowing numerous key opportunities for resume-building wins in the last few weeks. Georgia has lost in 2OT to Florida, by 8 to Xavier and by 8 to Vanderbilt all in Athens. With trips to Tennessee, Florida and Alabama remaining, the slate appears challenging. Georgia is 2-8 vs. the RPI top-50 with wins over Kentucky and UAB.

Alabama 17-8 (9-2), 83 RPI, 156 SOS– Alabama is going to be a really interesting debate in the selection room. They’re 9-2 in a BCS conference and wins over Kentucky and Tennessee show they haven’t just beaten up on the dregs of the SEC West. Still, the RPI/SOS is horrible and they have a ton of bad losses. Taking care of business in their next two vs. Arkansas and Auburn are musts.

WAC

Utah State 23-3 (12-1), 27 RPI, 147 SOS– Are the Aggies deserving of an at-large bid regardless of what happens in the conference tournament? I’d vote yes, but Stew Morrill doesn’t want to leave it up to the committee. They’ll be heavy favorites in the WAC Tournament, a league that has provided them with zero wins in the RPI top-125. They lost to both BYU and Georgetown in their only real challenges, making the Saint Mary’s game on Saturday all that more important.

West Coast

Saint Mary’s 20-5 (10-2), 42 RPI, 167 SOS– The loss on Thursday to #306 RPI San Diego will go down as the  one of the worst defeats for any NCAA Tournament team this season. The Gaels end the campaign with three home games against Utah State, Gonzaga and Portland. In my opinion, they cannot lose more than one and feel comfortable in terms of an at-large bid. St. Mary’s has a November win over St. John’s and also won at Gonzaga. That’s about it.

Gonzaga 17-9 (8-3), 68 RPI, 80 SOS- Gonzaga has won three in a row and are back in the mix. Their December home win over Xavier keeps gaining credibility, but the Zags are just 2-6 overall vs. the RPI top-50. They did beat fellow bubble teams Baylor and Marquette. Their visit to Moraga on February 24 could vault the Zags right back into the at-large discussion with a victory.

On the fringe: Cleveland State, Missouri State, New Mexico, Southern Mississippi, VCU.