Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

Mid-February means only one thing: the unveiling of Bubble Watch 2011! Here’s a snapshot of which teams have work to do to punch their NCAA Tournament ticket as we approach one month till Selection Sunday:

Atlantic 10

Xavier (17-6 (8-1), 22 RPI, 27 SOS)- The Musketeers picked up a vital non-conference win over fellow bubble team Georgia in Athens and remain atop the Atlantic 10 with an 8-1 mark. The regular season winner of the conference is a lock to make the tournament. Xavier already has key wins in A-10 play over Temple and at Richmond and this weekend’s meeting at Duquesne is truly the only challenging date remaining on the slate unless you count a February 27 trip to Dayton.

Temple (18-5 (8-2), 37 RPI, 131 SOS)- The Owls have two vital A-10 games in the next week with a visit to Dayton and a home date with Richmond ahead. A mid-February road game at Duke should boost the RPI/SOS and the Owls have an increasingly important home win over Georgetown (#4 RPI) from back in December. Temple has won five in a row and, coupled with their recent A-10 tournament success, it’s difficult to envision the Owls disappointed on Selection Sunday.

Richmond (19-6 (8-2), 70 RPI, 168 SOS)- With Kevin Anderson, Justin Harper and Dan Geriot, the Spiders smell like an NCAA team, but lackluster computer numbers and four sub-70 RPI losses to Bucknell, Rhode Island, Iona and Georgia Tech give us pause. Like Temple’s win over Georgetown, Richmond holds a key victory over Purdue (#12 RPI) and also beat fellow bubble team VCU. An all-important trip to Philly to face the Owls looms on February 17.

Duquesne (16-6 (8-1), RPI 76, 154 SOS)- At 8-1 in the Atlantic 10, the Dukes may seem like a team worthy of tournament inclusion, but their best non-conference win is IUPUI. A win over Temple certainly helped, but Duquesne must go 3-1 in their tough games remaining – Xavier, at Dayton, Rhode Island, at Richmond — to warrant serious consideration.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina.

Boston College (15-9 (5-5), 44 RPI, 17 SOS)- The Eagles have dropped five of seven during their most challenging stretch of ACC play, but did manage to pick up a key bubble win over Virginia Tech in the process. BC could still go either way with tough games at North Carolina and Virginia Tech remaining, but also a handful against the dregs of the ACC. Along with the VT win and a December triumph at Maryland, BC boasts a win over Texas A&M from the Old Spice Classic.

Florida State (17-7 (7-3), 48 RPI, 87 SOS)- There would have been some nervous ‘Noles fans out there had there been a  letdown at Georgia Tech last night, but Chris Singleton and Co. avoided a loss after two road thrashings from Clemson and North Carolina. Wins over Virginia, Miami and at Wake Forest coming up gives Leonard Hamilton’s team 10 ACC wins and basically locks up a bid. The schedule is favorable and that win over Duke (#8 RPI) stands out.

Clemson (17-7 (6-4), 63 RPI, 116 SOS)- Clemson faced a must-win situation against BC at home and downed the Eagles on Tuesday. The Tigers also destroyed Florida State, but their lack of quality non-conference wins (at Charleston the best) means there’s still work to be done. A golden opportunity presents itself tomorrow with North Carolina coming to town followed by two tricky road games at NC State and Miami that can hurt a lot more than help.

Virginia Tech (15-7 (5-4), 65 RPI, 102 SOS)- Bubble watch just wouldn’t be the same without Virginia Tech. The Hokies face a potential 4-0 stretch upcoming with visits from Georgia Tech and Maryland followed by a Virginia-Wake road swing, but the real key to their NCAA hopes will be a February 26 home date with Duke. Seth Greenberg’s team has wins over Florida State and at Maryland, but their best out-of-conference victory was over Oklahoma State in Anaheim.

Maryland (16-8 (5-4), 80 RPI, 81 SOS)- The Terps have gone a remarkable 0-7 against the RPI top-50 and their best win remains an ACC-Big Ten Challenge triumph at Penn State. Not exactly the resume of an NCAA Tournament team. Maryland has plenty of work to do with a crucial two game swing at BC and Virginia Tech starting Saturday. Lose both and it’s going to be very hard to avoid NIT relegation.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas.

Texas A&M (18-5 (5-4), 27 RPI, 44 SOS)- The Aggies dodged a huge bullet when B.J. Holmes’ three found the bottom of the net and A&M eventually beat Colorado in overtime to avoid a four-game slide. A&M picked up two solid non-conference wins over Washington and Temple and were a missed layup away from also beating Boston College. The Aggies also boast a Big 12 win over Missouri and have three chances to add a quality road win to the portfolio with trips to Oklahoma State, Baylor and Kansas ahead.

Missouri (18-6 (4-5), 28 RPI, 68 SOS)- Like A&M, Missouri has done close to nothing away from home – their best win away from Columbia was a December downing of Oregon. Missouri should be able to make the Dance behind non-conference wins over Vanderbilt, Illinois and Old Dominion and a respectable RPI, but it’d certainly help if they win either at home vs. Baylor or at Kansas State to make absolutely positive.

Kansas State (16-8 (4-5), 33 RPI, 12 SOS)- Amazingly, Kansas State still has a chance to Dance despite an 0-7 mark vs. the RPI top-50 and top wins over Virginia Tech and at Washington State. The RPI/SOS is boosted by a challenging non-conference slate (Duke, UNLV, Florida) and Big 12 road games (Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Missouri = all losses) with a visit to Austin still remaining. A Valentine’s Day visit from Kansas is approaching. Win that and we can consider the Wildcats a legitimate bid threat again.

Oklahoma State (16-7 (4-5), 43 RPI, 63 SOS)- The next four games for the Cowboys could knock them clear out of the bubble picture, especially at 4-5 in the Big 12: at Nebraska, at Texas, Texas A&M, at Kansas. A 2-2 record out of that stretch would be welcomed. A non-conference win over Missouri State is decent, as are home victories over Missouri and Kansas State. This team is currently right on the bubble.

Baylor (16-7 (6-4), 62 RPI, 76 SOS)- Baylor saved their season with a win at Texas A&M on Saturday, but their earlier losses to Iowa State and Oklahoma stand out as black marks. Not to mention Baylor’s best win out of conference is, gulp, Lipscomb and their non-conference SOS is #235. Baylor will either sprint into the tournament or completely flame out during their last four games- home vs. Texas A&M and Texas and visits to Missouri and Oklahoma State. Opportunity knocks for Scott Drew’s team.

Big East

Locks: Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse.

St. John’s (14-9 (6-5), 20 RPI, 2 SOS)- Rick Pitino was on to something when he picked St. John’s to win the Big East before the season. Okay, maybe not quite, but there’s almost zero chance the committee denies a team entry that has victories over 1/3 of the current top 12 and a road win at West Virginia for good measure. Those wins will more than trump the Fordham and St. Bonaventure setbacks of December. Finishing 3-4 in the Big East down the stretch to get to nine wins is probably sufficient.

Louisville (18-6 (7-4), 26 RPI, 38 SOS)- The Cardinals are inching closer to lock status after almost ending Notre Dame’s home dominance on Wednesday. If Louisville can beat Syracuse at home tomorrow afternoon, they can punch a ticket to the Dance. If not, home games against Connecticut and Pittsburgh in the next couple weeks gives them two more opportunities to clinch a bid. Louisville owns a win at Connecticut and non-conference wins over UNLV and Butler.

Cincinnati (19-5 (6-5), 36 RPI, 137 SOS)- The #285 non-conference schedule stings, but at least they took advantage of their one quality win opportunity and beat Xavier handily. A road win at St. John’s also looks a lot better than it did at the time with the Johnnies recent home dominance and the rematch this Sunday looms large for the Bearcats. Home dates with Louisville, Connecticut and Georgetown also remain. There are plenty of chances left and Cincinnati already has 19 overall wins with no bad losses.

Marquette (15-9 (6-5), 54 RPI, 37 SOS)- The Golden Eagles gutted out another one of their nail-biters at USF on Wednesday to stay firmly on the right side of the bubble. Marquette has beaten Notre Dame, Syracuse and West Virginia on their home floor, but that’s about it as far as quality wins. The schedule down the stretch is about forgiving as the Big East can possibly provide, though, with Providence, St. John’s and Cincinnati at home and Seton Hall twice on the docket.

Big Ten

Locks: Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin.

Illinois (16-8 (6-5), 31 RPI, 24 SOS)- The Illini have collected quality wins (North Carolina, Wisconsin, at Minnesota) and puzzling losses (at Northwestern, at Penn State, at Indiana, Illinois-Chicago) to give Bruce Weber’s team an interesting resume for the committee to consider. With three home games remaining against Big 10 bottom feeders, a solid RPI/SOS and a golden opportunity this Sunday with Purdue entering Champaign, Weber should feel relatively confident. A February 19 visit to Michigan State looms large if the Illini can’t take care of business on Sunday.

Minnesota (16-8 (5-7), 35 RPI, 22 SOS)- This team is trending in the wrong direction and their hopes may end up hinging on how highly the committee values two November wins over North Carolina and West Virginia on neutral floors when the Gophers had their point guard Al Nolen. With four straight losses and a 5-7 mark in the Big 10, Minnesota may appear in deep trouble, but their last six games feature a grand total of zero ranked teams and the toughest challenge is Michigan State at home. With the RPI/SOS already stellar, it remains extremely likely Minnesota is dancing if they simply beat teams they’re supposed to.

Michigan State (14-10 (6-6), 49 RPI, 8 SOS)- The Spartans righted the ship for at least one night and trounced Penn State, but the real future of this team will be determined in their next four contests – at Ohio State, Illinois, at Minnesota and Purdue. Michigan State’s overtime wins over Minnesota and Wisconsin are important as is a comeback win back in Maui over Washington, but the 20-point loss at #140 RPI Iowa stands out in a bad way.

Colonial

George Mason (20-5 (12-2), 25 RPI, 85 SOS)- Mason hasn’t lost in over a month and their RPI has steadily climbed to top-25 status. Those touting their at-large credentials should be cautioned by a lack of quality wins. Only a home win over Old Dominion and a win at Duquesne stand out. Two crucial games remain with trips to VCU and Northern Iowa still on the schedule. It may be hard for the committee to deny a 16-2 CAA team in this year’s expanded field.

Old Dominion (19-6 (10-4), 34 RPI, 70 SOS)- The Monarchs sit firmly on the bubble because of some quality wins over Xavier, George Mason, Richmond and Clemson, but have lost four times in CAA play. Like the Patriots, ODU has two crucial games ahead with a trip to VCU and a home date with Cleveland State remaining.

VCU (20-6 (12-2), 51 RPI, 194 SOS)- The Rams RPI/SOS is lackluster and they’ve lost two puzzlers at Northeastern and Georgia State in CAA play, but VCU may be hard to keep out if they can claim the CAA regular season title with wins over UCLA and at Old Dominion on the resume. Old Dominion and George Mason still have to travel to Richmond, both in the next week. The opportunity is there.

Conference USA

UAB (17-6 (7-3), 32 RPI, 53 SOS)- Conference USA is hoping one of UAB, Memphis and Southern Miss goes on a run in the final month but falters in the conference tournament to give the conference two bids in a generally mediocre season for the league. UAB has the chance to play that role with road games at Memphis and Southern Miss ahead. With VCU dropping out of the RPI top-50, the Blazers are 0-4 against such competition, but both of those aforementioned C-USA foes are currently in the top 50.

Memphis (18-6 (6-3), 40 RPI, 57 SOS)- The Tigers salvaged their at-large hopes with a win in Spokane against Gonzaga last weekend. A visit to UTEP is the only game in which Memphis won’t be favored down the stretch and it appears the young Tigers have bounced back from the Marshall/Tulsa setbacks. Memphis already owns key conference wins at UAB and Southern Miss.

Missouri Valley

Wichita State (20-5 (11-3), 59 RPI, 120 SOS)- The Shockers may have won 20 games, but they certainly don’t fall under the impressive category. Their best wins per RPI are Tulsa and Evansville. Opportunity to boost that lagging resume remains with trips to Northern Iowa and Missouri State (along with a BracketBuster meeting with VCU at home) remaining. A shocking (no pun intended) loss to Southern Illinois was their third home loss in MVC play.

Mountain West

Locks: BYU, San Diego State.

UNLV (18-6 (6-4), 24 RPI, 35 SOS)- In the next eight days, UNLV plays two extremely important games- this Saturday vs. San Diego State and next Saturday at Colorado State. Defeat the Aztecs and it’s going to be awfully difficult to keep the Rebels out of the Dance with their top-25 RPI and wins over Wisconsin and possible NCAA team Kansas State (albeit without Jacob Pullen). A trip to the Pit to play New Mexico also remains, so the schedule for Lon Kruger’s team isn’t light.

Colorado State (16-7 (6-3), 42 RPI, 40 SOS)- The Rams badly need to take care of business during two home dates with New Mexico and UNLV in the next eight days because trips to Provo and San Diego are on the horizon. CSU’s computer numbers scream bubble and their best non-conference win was Southern Miss, so obviously there’s work to be done. The Rams could go either way at this point.

Pac-10

Arizona (20-4 (9-2), 16 RPI, 59 SOS)- The only factor keeping Arizona away from bona fide lock status is their lack of quality wins. The best on the portfolio are UCLA, at California and at Washington State and the best non-conference win is at NC State. The Pac-10 regular season champion is going to go dancing, though, and Arizona currently owns a one-game lead over the Bruins. If the Wildcats sweep the Washington schools next weekend, they move into lock status.

UCLA (17-7 (8-3), 38 RPI, 30 SOS)- Although UCLA lacks anything resembling a quality road win, their neutral court victory over #2 RPI BYU looks bigger and bigger, as does last weekend’s victory over #20 RPI St. John’s. These are two out-of-conference triumphs that Arizona and Washington cannot match. The Bruins last three games against Arizona and at the two Washington schools will determine their fate, but they can’t afford slip-ups at dangerous Stanford and California first.

Washington (16-7 (8-4), 41 RPI, 69 SOS)- Much like rival Arizona, the Huskies lack anything to tout away from Pac-10 play, where quality win opportunities aren’t exactly common. Washington did win at UCLA and trounced Arizona at home, but three sub-120 RPI losses in conference play are concerning. The Huskies did play competitive games against Kentucky and at Texas A&M in non-conference play, but faltered in both contests.

Washington State (16-8 (6-6), 77 RPI, 111 SOS)- The Cougars resume is looking worse and worse as their RPI plummets and bad losses start to mount. Getting blown out against Stanford in Pullman last night was embarrassing. Wazzu did beat Washington and Baylor on a neutral floor, but they have to split their trips to Tucson and Seattle to have a fighting chance.

SEC

Locks: Florida, Kentucky.

Vanderbilt (17-6 (5-4), 18 RPI, 17 SOS)- The only reason the Commodores still have work left to do is because of their challenging schedule ahead. Vandy still has a home-and-home with Kentucky, a trip to Georgia and a home date with Florida remaining, so it’s possible they could finish around 8-8 in the SEC if play falters down the stretch. Vandy boasts non-conference wins over North Carolina from Puerto Rico, killed Saint Mary’s and also beat Georgia, Alabama and Marquette to go along with top 20 RPI and SOS.

Tennessee (15-9 (5-4), 23 RPI, 1 SOS)- If the Volunteers just go 4-0 at home against South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi State and Kentucky, they should be fine with at least a 9-7 SEC record, a top-25 RPI and a top-5 SOS. The tremendous wins over Pittsburgh, Villanova, Vanderbilt, at Georgia and Belmont twice don’t necessarily cancel out the bad losses to Charlotte, Arkansas and USC; I’ve always believed the quality wins hold more weight in the committee’s eyes than the disappointing losses (although don’t tell that to last year’s Fighting Illini).

Georgia (16-7 (5-4), 45 RPI, 45 SOS)- Georgia is the most bubblicious team in the country. The loss suffered at home to Xavier on Tuesday was a golden opportunity blown. A key home date with Vanderbilt next week preceded by a tricky visit to South Carolina on Saturday are games the Bulldogs absolutely need, especially with trips to Kentucky and Florida in the not-so distant future. Georgia boasts wins over Kentucky and fellow bubble squad UAB and hasn’t lost to a team outside the RPI top-50.

Alabama (15-8 (7-2), 93 RPI, 147 SOS)- Much like Duquesne out of the Atlantic 10, a porous pre-conference portfolio means the Crimson Tide have to win every marquee game against SEC East foes. Beating up on Auburn, LSU and Arkansas with that RPI/SOS isn’t going to help their cause. A controversial loss at Vanderbilt on Thursday stings, especially considering they don’t play an East representative until March. Alabama has downed Kentucky and won at Tennessee, but lost to Iowa, St. Peter’s, Providence, Seton Hall and Arkansas.

WAC

Utah State (22-3 (11-1), 29 RPI, 176 SOS)- The Aggies better not lose in the WAC Tournament. It’s not Utah State’s fault, but the WAC doesn’t provide anything even close to resembling a quality win. The Aggies lost their two major opportunities away from league play with losses against top-5 RPI teams BYU and Georgetown and winning at Saint Mary’s (February 19) is challenging. An eight-point loss to Idaho on Wednesday doesn’t help the cause. If Utah State somehow slips in the WAC Tournament, I still say the Aggies dance, but it could get very interesting.

WCC

Saint Mary’s (21-4 (9-1), 30 RPI, 138 SOS)- Saint Mary’s has a better chance than Utah State right now to Dance even if they lose in the WCC Tournament because of their November win over St. John’s and a victory at Gonzaga. The Gaels also haven’t suffered a loss outside the RPI top 100 and only lost by one against BYU. If Saint Mary’s wins out to reach 13-1 in the WCC, they’re a lock to make the NCAA Tournament.

Also considered: Butler, Missouri State, New Mexico, Southern Mississippi.