Some shakeups in the top five this week as a sea of orange — Tennessee and Syracuse — busted up after huge wins last week. QnD analysis after the jump…
QnD Analysis.
- Big East Reigns. Doesn’t it seem like we have the same tired debate over which conference is the best in the nation every November? Then, predictably, the Big East ends up proving superior by the time Christmas rolls around and they sustain that momentum throughout March? The same could be the case this season with seven top-25 teams and five in the top twelve. The Big Ten, hyped prior to the season as the clear-cut top conference in the land, touts just Ohio State in the top twelve. While there are a multitude of ways to evaluate conference strength, looking strictly at this poll would lead one to believe the Big East is yet again the class of the pack.
- Teams That Impressed. Tennessee and Syracuse collected the biggest wins of the week and jumped in our poll as a result. Tennessee knocking off Pittsburgh in the Steel City boosted the Volunteers from barely ranked in mid-November to #4 in the nation in mid-December. Tennessee now has beaten Pitt and Villanova, two teams expected to contend for the Big East title. Syracuse, meanwhile, took advantage of a faux-neutral game themselves, out-playing Michigan State at MSG en route to their first quality win of the campaign. They remain undefeated and jumped from #14 to #5 in the rankings. Undefeated Louisville jumped into the poll following their win over UNLV on Saturday.
- Teams That Regressed. The two aforementioned losers — Pittsburgh and Michigan State –– dropped in the poll as a result of their defeats. While Pitt was dramatically outplayed by the Volunteers, there’s more concern over the Spartans. Sure, Tom Izzo’s clubs tend to peak when the chips are down, but State now has three losses to Connecticut, Duke and Syracuse, with a closer-than-expected contest against Oakland on Saturday and Kalin Lucas still working his way back to 100% from last March’s Achilles injury.
- Variance. There’s a bit of variance when it comes to Connecticut, likely regarding whether to rank them as high as #5 based on wins over Michigan State and Kentucky or more towards #12 if the pollster believes an overreliance on Kemba Walker will ultimately catch up to the Huskies. There’s an 11-spot differential with Purdue among the pollsters, as well. Georgetown is ranked as high as #9 and as low as #21 following their first loss of the campaign to Temple.
- Conference Call. Big East (7), Big Ten (6), Big 12 (4), SEC (3), Mountain West (3), ACC (1), CUSA (1).
View Comments (10)
RTMSF and JSTEV ought to reexamine the bottom of their poll. They both have Notre Dame behind Wisconsin who they beat on a neutral floor. ND also has a better record.
Nah, I still think Wisconsin is the better team at this point in the season.
I think Temple, A&M and Central Florida would probably be towards the bottom of my poll. Need those three, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Vandy to really assert themselves before it's clear though.
I'd love to read why Pitt dropped 7 spots after losing to Tennessee. Dropping below a 9-1 KSt. team that got smoked by Duke and below a 6-0 Baylor team that hasn't played one team of any consequence? C'mon! #5 or #6 would be an acceptable drop; #10 is quite the overreaction to a loss just because it happened this week.
Also, Washington doesn't get to be in the poll because of 3 losses yet Mich St. gets to stay at #14!? Both teams should be in it as they've all lost to top quality opponents in close games with MSU's loss to Cuse the worst loss for either team.
Dan - I can't answer for the other ballots, but I can answer for my own. Pitt dropped so far on my ballot b/c they not only lost to Tennessee, but they got smoked and it was in front of a home crowd (if not a home building). I penalize home losses far more than I do other kinds of losses, esp. those where the team didn't look at all capable of even competing with its opponent.
Michigan State is and will continue to be better than Washington. I don't understand the Washington-love this year -- too many folks are taking the Pomeroy ratings as irrefutable gospel. At this point last season Texas was #1 or #2 in Pomeroy. How'd that work out?
The Huskies can score; they can't defend; and they make bad decisions as a result of mediocre coaching game after game after game in the clutch. Do you really feel that Washington would beat Michigan State? I don't.
I don't particularly get the Washington love either. At this point, they've lost every game against quality competition they've played. Their best win was against Virginia, a couple days after Virginia got drilled by Stanford by 20-some points. And Washington hasn't even looked particularly good in those losses against good teams.
I'm more than willing to put Washington in the top 25 if they start accomplishing anything (although the only games of any import remaining on their schedule are within the Pac-10), but there are too many other teams out there with quality wins to give the Huskies the benefit of the doubt.
"Do you really feel that Washington would beat Michigan State? I don’t."
As I stated last time we got into this, I enjoy using this type of thinking while making rankings... it is the actual purpose of doing so. Higher ranks means you'd win in a matchup on a neutral court.
Using this line of thinking would greatly affect all of your rankings I'm sure so if we're going to use this argument here please do so in the future with ALL of your rankings.
I think MSU beats every team outside the Top 5 here. I also think Illinois/Kentucky get a huge rankings boost and Washington surely cracks at least the top 25. There is far too much weight being put into the "what have you done for me lately" portion of this poll instead of who is actually the better team.
UConn may be the most undeserving team as they're done "sneaking up" on anyone and rely far too heavily on Kemba Walker to defeat MANY of the teams ranked behind them.
All I'm looking for is consistency in the way the rankings are being put together; use the same criterion to judge each team, not just the way they're portrayed by the media and hype.
I mean wtf has Baylor done to stay at #7 other than not exceed or disappoint on preseason judgments by playing a schedule of nobody's?
Dan, it has to be a combination of both or it's not worth doing. Otherwise, Duke would be #1 the entire season regardless of how their resume actually looks. They could have six regular season Ls to the likes of Clemson, UNC, Maryland and whoever else, and you know what, I'm still going to think they're the best team in America. The same would have been true with UNC in 2009, Florida in 2007, Carolina again in 2005, and so on.
Does that mean I should have voted them #1 all season regardless of their actual performance during the season? When Florida tanked at the end of the regular season in 2007 when they clearly got bored with college basketball, but were also clearly the best team in America, are you telling me that I should have kept them at #1 after losing to LSU. That's utterly ridiculous to me.
You place waaaaaay too much value on a) what these polls mean (the answer, of course, is nothing); and b) formulaic consistency in how to evaluate each team.
My rankings, and I'm quite sure if you queried the rest of the pollsters you'd get a similar response, come down to a combination of factors. There is no explicit formula. I consider overall resume, but I also consider whether I think the team is over-achieving or underachieving. Another factor I consider strongly is how the team in question is playing, regardless of Ws and Ls. And like it or not, I use my knowledge about certain teams and their tendencies with certain players and coaches to credit or discredit them (see: Washington, who currently has zero quality wins yet some people who can't think for themselves still believe is an elite team). I also use the poll to reward and punish teams for particularly great or terrible performances.
So these are my criteria - it's ok to tell me that you disagree with them, but it's not ok to ignore the fallacy of doing it the other way either. If it sounds squishy, it's because it purposefully is. It ultimately comes down to feel for placement, and whether you agree or not, I've got a solid number of years behind me in doing this kind of thing.
Once again I encourage you to show up each Monday when our poll comes out and give us your list in the comments. And if Duke is #1 every week regardless of how they actually play during the regular season, that's your prerogative. I just happen to disagree with it.
I appreciate the healthy debate and the fact that you're willing to take the time to a) respond to some bozo like myself on the internet and b) back up your opinions with some sound reasoning, even if I disagree with it.
To your point of, should Duke be voted #1 even with 6 L's if you still believe they are the #1 team in the country; YES, they certainly should be. You just told me they're #1 in your mind - their resume may not show it for a multitude of reasons, but if you think they will beat every other team in the nation then they're #1. Simple as that to me.
I don't know if it's worth my time, your time, or any poor soul reading this banter down here to release my own poll every Monday but I guess I could. I'll be sure to check in every week when the RTC Top 25 comes out to weigh in with my opinions as usual and I hope we can continue what we've started here.
Dan, always appreciate good-natured and spirited banter and we'll just agree to disagree on what the purpose of polling in basketball is.
But I did want to add that we do appreciate the time and the thought you're bringing to bear by dropping by and voicing your opinion. We want this place to be an open forum for that kind of thought and analysis, so certainly continue to feel free to do so. Thanks.