Rush The Court

ACC Microsite writers Matt Patton and Brad Jenkins will be reporting live from Greensboro at the 2015 ACC Tournament throughout the week.

With Selection Sunday almost upon us, here’s a quick look at how things stand for ACC schools moving forward. The four teams still playing in Greensboro are battling for NCAA Tournament seeding at this point. Most bracket experts seem to think that if #2 Duke and #3 Virginia both make it to the ACC championship game on Saturday night, each would earn a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The other two ACC semifinalists — #11 Notre Dame and #19 North Carolina — have locked in protected NCAA seeds, but could still move up the seed lines with huge wins tonight. Among the schools no longer alive in Greensboro, two are regarded as either locks (Louisville) or very probable (N.C. State) to receive invitations to the Dance. Miami appears to be the only ACC bubble team that remains. Below is a look at where each school’s NCAA Tournament prospects are as of today with regard to seeding and potential advancement.

Each team is listed with its current overall record along with projected NCAA seed per ESPN‘s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports‘ Jerry Palm.

• Virginia (29-2, ESPN: #1, CBS: #1)  The big story with the Cavaliers is the return of Justin Anderson and what that means going forward. With so little time left to get back into season form, Anderson needs immediate minutes and the Cavaliers need immediate production. The Cavaliers’ offense is not good enough to reach the Final Four without a healthy and productive Anderson in their lineup. Though unlikely, there’s a small chance that a semifinal loss to North Carolina tonight would knock Virginia off the #1 seed line, depending on how the other conference champions like Villanova, Wisconsin and Arizona play this weekend.
• Duke (29-3, ESPN: #1, CBS: #1) The Blue Devils are playing as well as any team in the country right now, but they need to win at least one more game this week, and perhaps two, to assure themselves of hanging on to that #1 seed. Mike Krzyzewski’s new defensive scheme – a three-quarter court zone press and some half-court matchup zone – has been effective at cutting down guard penetration, a profound defensive weakness for the Blue Devils. With the nation’s top offense on the other end of the floor, that should be enough to avoid the early upset bug and make for a deep NCAA run.

• Notre Dame (27-5, ESPN: #3, CBS: #3) The Irish appear to be solidly viewed as a #3 seed unless they lose badly tonight and the Selection Committee punishes them for that terrible non-conference schedule (#326). On the other hand, if Mike Brey’s team wins the ACC championship, Notre Dame has a realistic opportunity to move up to the #2 seed line. In any case, it’s hard to see the Irish lasting all that long in the Dance with a defense rated 131st in the country.
• Louisville (24-8, ESPN: #4, CBS: #5) Louisville has the opposite problem with an offense that has two major flaws — the Cardinals struggle to make perimeter shots and they only have one real scoring threat (Montrezl Harrell) in the paint. As a result, matchups will be very important for this team’s Big Dance experience. A team that can both handle the ball versus Louisville’s pressure and force the Cardinals to take a bunch of jumpers will probably beat them, and that could occur in any round. #5/#12 upset, anyone?
• North Carolina (23-10, ESPN: #4, CBS: #5) The Tar Heels are another team that has potential to experience either NCAA Tourney extreme. If North Carolina continues to shoot the ball well and Marcus Paige remains healthy and productive, the Heels are a very dangerous team. By the same token, there have been way too many subpar performances from this group this year to rule out an early exit as well.
• N.C. State (20-13, ESPN: #9, CBS: #10) The Wolfpack’s dynamic backcourt and the confidence they’ve gained by beating several good teams should make N.C. State a popular choice to pull a surprise or two in next week’s opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament. A lack of a reliable interior scoring threat will eventually catch up to them, though.
• Miami (21-12, ESPN: Last Four Out, CBS: Last Four Out) It looks like Miami’s best chance for selection to the NCAA Tournament is for Temple and/or Tulsa to lose very soon in their respective conference tournaments. None of the other bubble teams have games left that would add another bad loss, so Miami appears to have very little upward mobility on the overall bubble list.

Believe it or not, someone is actually practicing the science of NIT bracketology — here’s an updated projected NIT bracket from Big Apple Buckets. Miami is a #2 seed and Pittsburgh is a #4 seed in the latest projected 32-team field. That means that Clemson and Florida State, both NIT semifinalists from a year ago, may need to look to the CBI/CIT for any further postseason play this season.