It hasn’t been the easiest couple of weeks for Big 12 fans. Kansas may have fallen off the #1 seed line and Iowa State and Oklahoma are firmly on the bubble after the first full day of the conference tournament. What once looked like possibly six Big 12 teams in the Dance headlined with a #1 seed could now be four teams and no representation on the top line. Baylor’s hopes for an at-large bid were dashed after a phantom call on Phil Forte in the waning seconds of tonight’s game against Oklahoma State gave the Cowboys a 74-72 win. Unfortunately for the Bears, they still needed at least another win over Kansas State to make a serious case, so there won’t be any favors from the selection committee. Here’s where the potential NCAA Tournament teams stand and how they can improve their position heading into Friday’s action:
1. Kansas (27-5)
- What They Are Looking At: #2 seed
- Best Likely Scenario and Who The Need Help From: If the Jayhawks can win the Big 12 Tournament and beat Kansas State (#20 RPI) in the championship game, they could still land a #1 seed. The problem is, Kansas looks to be sandwiched between Louisville and Georgetown right now. If either of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, they would get a #1 seed over the Jayhawks. If Kansas wins the Big 12 Tournament and neither of those teams wins the Big East Tournament, the Jayhawks will earn a top seed.
- Worst Case Scenario: #2 seed
2. Kansas State (26-6)
- What They Are Looking At: #4 seed
- Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: Kansas State has a great record but its resume doesn’t quite match. They’re currently the second-best #4 seed over at Bracket Matrix, but have fewer RPI top 50 wins (five) than teams directly above them in Ohio State (six), Marquette (seven) and New Mexico (eight). Even if the Wildcats beat Oklahoma State and Kansas to win the conference tournament, they’d still have as many top 50 wins as Marquette, which lost tonight to Notre Dame. If Ohio State and New Mexico lose in their first games of their conference tournaments, the Wildcats could sneak into a #3 seed with three wins in Kansas City.
- Worst Case Scenario: The record is nice, but with 10 wins coming against teams outside the RPI top 200 and a bad strength of schedule (#63), a loss tomorrow could earn them a #5 seed.
3. Oklahoma State (24-7)
- What They Are Looking At: #4 seed
- Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: The Cowboys are a few spots below Kansas State at Bracket Matrix, so they need even more help to capture a #3 seed. Ohio State needs to lose early this week and the Cowboys need to beat Kansas State in the Big 12 semifinals. Arizona — another team just ahead of the Cowboys on the #3 line — beating Colorado yesterday in the Pac-12 Tournament didn’t help Oklahoma State’s chances of jumping up a line.
- Worst Case Scenario: #5 seed
4. Iowa State (22-10)
- What They Are Looking At: #11 seed
- Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: Yesterday’s win over Oklahoma helped, obviously, because the Cyclones have a similar resume to Oklahoma but a few things stick out, and not in Iowa State’s favor. Nine of their 22 wins have come against the RPI 200+, they are 6-9 in road/neutral games, and their #66 ranked strength of schedule leaves a lot to be desired. But it’s nothing a win over Kansas wouldn’t fix.
- Worst Case Scenario: #12 seed.
5. Oklahoma (20-11)
- What They Are Looking At: #12 seed
- Best Likely Scenario And Who They Need Help From: The Loss to TCU Saturday put the Sooners in a tough spot heading into the conference tournament. Giving up an eight-point halftime lead and losing to Iowa State in the quarterfinals yesterday in Kansas City might land Oklahoma in the NIT. They’re 3-7 against the RPI top 50 and have lost six of their last 13 games. They need a bunch of bubble teams to lose early this week. Boise State, Arkansas, Arizona State, California and Villanova have been knocked out of their respective conference tournaments, which helps. La Salle and Temple losing tomorrow in the Atlantic 10 Tournament would go a long way, as well.
- Worst Case Scenario: After yesterday’s loss to Iowa State, the NIT is the worst case scenario and a decent possibility.