Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is RTC’s resident bracketologist.  He’ll regularly be out-scooping, out-thinking and out-shining Lunardi over the next two months.

Last Four In: Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Connecticut, San Diego State

Last Four Out: UAB, Dayton, Memphis, Mississippi State

Next Four Out: Mississippi, Washington, Arizona State, Seton Hall

Automatic bids: Stony Brook, Temple, Duke, Jacksonville, Kansas, Syracuse, Weber State, Coastal Carolina, Ohio State, UC-Santa Barbara, Old Dominion, Butler, UTEP, Cornell, Siena, Kent State, Morgan State, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, Quinnipiac, Murray State, California, Lehigh, Kentucky, Wofford, Sam Houston State, Jackson State, Oakland, Troy, Gonzaga, Utah State.

Bids per conference: Big East (9), ACC (7), Big 12 (7), Big 10 (5), SEC (4), MWC (4), Atlantic 10 (4), WCC (2).

Next bracket update: Tuesday, March 9.

More analysis after the jump…

Why bubble teams are in or out:

• Florida- The Gators have quality wins over Tennessee, Michigan State and Florida State and a respectable 9-6 SEC mark. A near-certain loss at Kentucky on Sunday would inch them closer to the Last Four In line.
• Illinois- Four top-25 RPI wins including victories at Wisconsin and at Clemson to go along with home wins over Michigan State and a neutral win over Vanderbilt. Beating the Badgers for the second time in Champaign on Sunday would relieve major pressure.
• Notre Dame- The Irish now boast a winning Big East record and three wins vs. the RPI top-25. They have quality wins over West Virginia, Pittsburgh and at Georgetown including a Wednesday defeat of Connecticut that kept Mike Brey’s team in the field.
• Saint Mary’s- The Gaels have only lost five games this season and three of those came against RPI top-40 opponents Vanderbilt and Gonzaga. They won at Utah State and knocked off San Diego State at home.
• Rhode Island- The Rams blowout win over Charlotte put them barely into the bracket. URI is now 9-6 in a solid Atlantic 10, have a #29 RPI and 8 wins vs. the RPI top-100.
• Connecticut- Somehow the Huskies managed to stay in the field as one of the last two teams included. What they’re leaning on is three RPI top-50 wins over Texas, at Villanova and vs. West Virginia. Losing at South Florida on Saturday would drop UConn out.
• San Diego State- Right now, the Aztecs would be the first team to drop out should a bid stealer come along out of the Horizon, WCC, MVC, Pac-10 or CAA. They should finish 11-5 in the Mountain West and have two quality wins over New Mexico and UNLV on their resume.

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• UAB- The Blazers dropped out of the field with their home loss to Memphis this week. A trip to UTEP to finish the regular season doesn’t appear any easier, but if they pull out a win, they could vault back into the field depending on how the rest of the bubble shakes out. UAB has just one win over the RPI top-50 under their belt stemming from a Butler win at home in December.
• Dayton- The Flyers whiffed on a golden opportunity last night, blowing another lead on the road and falling to A-10 lock Richmond. Dayton now sits at a mediocre 8-7 in conference play but have a chance if they can go deep in Atlantic City next week with a #41 RPI and wins over Georgia Tech and Old Dominion. They lost what’s turning into a huge result at home to Rhode Island in January.
• Memphis- The Tigers won at UAB and have a chance to sweep the season series from both UAB and Tulsa with a win this weekend against the Golden Hurricane. The RPI is still lacking at #60 and they only have one win vs. the RPI top-50. They need to reach the C-USA Final to have a chance.
• Mississippi State- A team that wanted to play in the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t have fallen to Auburn in such a crucial contest. The Bulldogs loss drops them out of the tournament and Rick Stansbury’s team now has five losses vs. sub RPI top-100 opponents.
• Mississippi- The Rebels are staying alive for a bid. The sweep over rival Mississippi State looms large with a win over Kansas State from back in November in their back pocket. It comes down to the SEC Tournament. Reach the finals and Ole Miss can garner an at-large bid.
• Washington– The Huskies are slowly creeping into the discussion. They need to win at Oregon State on Saturday to remain there. Reach the Pac-10 Tournament finals, likely by beating Arizona State along the way, and they could sneak in as an at-large if the bubble doesn’t shrink.
• Arizona State– The Sun Devils can get to 11-7 in the Pac-10 with a home win over UCLA on Saturday. With a lacking RPI and only one win over the RPI top-50, they need to reach the Pac-10 Tournament finals, which means likely beating Washington along the way, to have a chance.
• Seton Hall- The Pirates are also holding on by a thread. Winning at Providence is a must. Then they must win two or three games in New York, likely picking up some much needed RPI top-50 wins.