The ACC is shaping up as arguably one of the strongest conferences ever assembled, with several pundits already saying that the league could get as many as 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament. While North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville, Florida State, Duke and Virginia are virtual locks, there are a number of other ACC teams that still have a reasonable shot with a strong finish. For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll use KenPom‘s projections to narrow the ACC bubble to teams that his methodology projects to win at least eight conference games: Miami, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Syracuse. (Ed. note: KenPom has since projected Wake Forest to win eight ACC games as well, but they are not included in this Bubble Watch.) Two months out from Selection Sunday, let’s take a look at what these four teams will need to do to get to the NCAA Tournament.
- Miami. The Hurricanes sit at 12-5 overall and 2-3 in conference play. Despite a weak non-conference schedule (303rd nationally), their only losses prior to ACC play came to likely NCAA Tournament teams Iowa State and Florida. Miami’s best non-conference win, however, is over a middling Stanford club, which means that there won’t be much margin for error over the next eight weeks. The Hurricanes have six games remaining against unranked teams (four in Coral Gables), so if they can win those and find one more victory elsewhere, a 9-9 ACC record should be enough. Dropping one or more of those contests, though, will create significant pressure on Jim Larranaga’s squad to beat a top-tier team, something it has yet to do this season.
- Virginia Tech. Like Miami, the 14-4 Hokies (3-3 ACC) performed well against a relatively weak non-conference schedule (341st nationally). They beat three top 100 teams in Nebraska, Ole Miss and Michigan with their only loss prior to conference play coming against Texas A&M. Those wins, along with a conference-opening victory against Duke, should provide Buzz Williams’ team with some wiggle room as the winter advances. Still, Virginia Tech plays five of its final 12 conference games at home and has four contests remaining against the top tier of the league. The Hokies have no easy task ahead of them, but if they can take care of business in Blacksburg and grab a road win at Boston College and somewhere else, a 9-9 ACC record would make them a competitive bubble squad heading into the ACC Tournament.
- Clemson. The Tigers started the season well, playing a relatively strong non-conference schedule (75th nationally) that featured six top 100 wins, including three against the top 50. A conference-opening win over Wake Forest was followed by four straight losses, including painstakingly close defeats to North Carolina, Notre Dame and Virginia. Its 1-4 ACC record appears worse than it is, though, because Clemson has played the league’s toughest schedule so far. After the murderer’s row ends with a trip to Louisville tonight, nine of the Tigers’ final 12 games are against unranked opponents. While a high-quality ACC win or two would certainly help its case, Clemson can probably afford to go winless against the top tier and still earn an at-large bid thanks to a relatively easy last six weeks and a particularly strong non-conference performance.
- Syracuse. Syracuse may be the most curious bubble case developing in the ACC. The Orange were 8-5 against a non-conference schedule that ranked 239th nationally. While they played and lost to likely NCAA Tournament teams like Wisconsin and South Carolina, Syracuse’s best win prior to ACC play was over Monmouth or Eastern Michigan, take your pick. In conference play, the Orange have a good win over Miami along with a bad loss to Boston College. Last year’s Final Four participant started the season at 10-7 before beating Boston College at home. Now take a look at this year’s schedule to date:
That team won seven of its next eight games before struggling in the home stretch and barely making the field. A similar run will likely be needed again this year. There are six ranked teams remaining on Syracuse’s schedule, so it will need to win several of those games to build a reasonable resume. After what they did last year, though, it would be silly to count them out in mid-January.