Rush The Court

For the second consecutive season, the Big 12 sent seven teams to the Big Dance. Before considering those schools’ seedings, let’s first acknowledge that sending 70 percent of the conference’s membership is an outstanding achievement and that assessment will surely be echoed by its leadership, coaches and players over the coming days. Additionally, top-four seeds went to four teams – Kansas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor – more than any other conference except the ACC, which yielded five, but also has nine teams that didn’t crack the field at all. Skeptics of the Big 12 will point out that the most talented teams in the conference (Kansas and Texas) haven’t lived up to expectations, and another team expected to return to the NCAA Tournament in Kansas State fell completely flat. Those criticisms can be countered, though, with success stories in Baylor and West Virginia, who weren’t taken seriously as NCAA Tournament teams until after the calendar turned to 2015. Here’s our early outlook at the seven Big 12 teams in this year’s field.

Kansas (Chris Stone)

• Seed: #2 Midwest
• Quick First Round Preview: Kansas drew the WAC’s automatic bid winner, New Mexico State (23-10, 13-1 WAC), in its opening game, and the Aggies are the 88th-best team in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency rankings. To put that into some perspective, Big 12 foe Kansas State finished the season ranked 81st. NMSU features a balanced offensive attack with four players averaging double-figures. Defensively, the Aggies will look to run Kansas off the three-point line with their strong (seventh nationally) three-point defense, which has allowed opponents to hit just 29.5 percent of their attempts from behind the arc on the season. It’s a tough matchup, but the Jayhawks should get through.
• Intriguing Potential Future Matchup: This one seems rather obvious. While Wichita State won’t get the home-and-home that coach Gregg Marshall has campaigned for, the Shockers will finally have their chance at their in-state foe if the Jayhawks get past New Mexico State and they take care of business against Indiana. The contest would pit two of the game’s best coaching minds against one another and allow the state of Kansas to settle who the better team is this season once and for all.
• Final Word: Kansas drew undoubtedly the toughest region. According to KenPom, the Jayhawks’ road to the Final Four includes the highest-ranked #15 seed in New Mexico State, the top #7 seed in Wichita State, the second-best #3 seed in Notre Dame, and the overall #1 seed, Kentucky. The Jayhawks will need to return to their January form when they started Big 12 play 9-0 with a healthy Perry Ellis to pull off a Final Four run.

Iowa State (Brian Goodman)

• Seed: #3 South
• Quick First-Round Preview: Fred Hoiberg meets a familiar face in UAB head coach Jerod Haase. The two locked horns as players in the twilight of the Big Eight, with Haase’s Kansas teams going 3-1 against Hoiberg’s Cyclones. Shifting back to the present, success in the paint came easily during Iowa State’s second-half run against Kansas on Saturday, but the Blazers have four regulars who are 6’8″ or taller, which could make inside scoring a challenge. On defense, Iowa State probably won’t have to worry about facing another double-figure deficit. While UAB is a good free-throw shooting team (73.9%) and can crash the offensive glass (34% offensive rebounding rate), they sport sub-200 rankings in both two- and three-point shooting and ranks in the bottom 50 nationally in field goal percentage at the rim. If UAB could shoot the ball and hold onto the ball at least passably, this might be an interesting matchup, but they don’t, so the Cyclones should be able to advance without too much of a problem.
• Intriguing Potential Match-Up: Gonzaga could loom as a scary Sweet Sixteen opponent. Should that matchup come to fruition, we would have a festival of spacing, non-traditional big men and deadly three-point shooters all over the floor. Sign me up right now.
• Outlook: The Cyclones will be a popular pick to make a deep run due to their recent play and innovative offensive schemes. Their makeup gives them a high ceiling, but getting past Gonzaga will be challenging. Additionally, the South is filled with skilled bigs like Utah’s Jakob Poeltl, Georgetown’s Joshua Smith, Gonzaga’s Przemek Karnowski and Damontas Sabonis and Iowa’s deep core of Jared Uthoff, Adam Woodbury, Aaron White and Gabriel Olaseni. So if Iowa State somehow realizes its potential with a run to the Final Four, it will likely come on the strength of successful three-point shooting.

Baylor (Nate Kotisso)

• Seed: #3 West
• Quick First Round Preview: You thought Baylor was efficient on offense? Georgia State can light it up from pretty much wherever too. The Panthers are led by R.J. Hunter, the son of head coach Ron Hunter. The younger Hunter leads the team in scoring (20.1 PPG) and is assisted by former Kentucky and Louisville guards Ryan Harrow (19.4 PPG) and Kevin Ware (7.3 PPG) respectively. Georgia State shoots it well, has willing passers and doesn’t turn it over while forcing opponents to do so frequently. If the Panthers want to pull off the upset, however, they’ll need Harrow to be healthy enough to play on Thursday afternoon.
• Intriguing Potential Match-Up: Providing that the Bears hold up their end of the bargain and Kentucky does the thing we all think they’ll do, we could be looking at a Kentucky-Baylor matchup in Indianapolis. If there is a coach that has gotten the best of John Calipari at Kentucky lately, it’s Scott Drew. The Bears have beaten the Wildcats in two of their last three meetings at Rupp Arena and on a neutral court in December 2013. The winner of that game would play for a national title three weeks from today.
• Final Word: If they are to make a regional semifinal, much less a Final Four, the Bears would somehow need to emerge from arguably the toughest region in the entire NCAA Tournament. It is possible, though, because of Baylor’s multi-dimensional attributes. They can beat you by shooting jumpers, in transition or killing it on the boards. Whatever their opponent’s weakness is, they are probably good at exploiting it. Drew has gotten his Baylor teams to the second weekend in their last three trips (2010, 2012, 2014) — there’s no reason to believe it won’t happen again.

Oklahoma (NK)

• Seed: #3 East
• Quick First Round Preview: The Sooners can lay claim to being one of three Big 12 teams to lock up a #3 seed in this year’s field of 68. Unfortunately, the Sooners face arguably the toughest #14 seed in the NCAA Tournament in Albany. The Great Danes dominated the America East to the tune of a 15-1 record in league play, but needed a desperation three-pointer in the conference championship game to punch their NCAA ticket. With Oklahoma’s several losses to inferior opponents this season, they should be on high upset alert.
• Intriguing Potential Matchup: If everything goes according to plan in the first round (yes, it’s March, just ignore that), it would be a joy to watch the Sooners take on a game Providence bunch in the Round of 32. In a game that would feature two conference Player of the Years (Buddy Hield and Kris Dunn) and a 2,000 point scorer (LaDontae Henton), I’d pay for the price of admission on this one.
• Final Word: It’s strange to say, but a deep run by Oklahoma hinges largely on whether the Sooners can beat Albany on Friday. They have yet to win an NCAA Tournament game in the Lon Kruger era, but getting past that barrier could mean very bad things for Providence, Virginia and others.

West Virginia (CS)

• Seed: #5 Midwest
• Quick First Round Preview: The Mountaineers will take on MAC champion Buffalo in a classic #12 seed vs. #5 seed matchup. The Bulls will be an interesting challenge for West Virginia’s press defense. as Buffalo ranks 35th in the nation in turnover percentage, giving the ball up on just 16.4 percent of its possessions. The key for Bob Huggins’ squad will be the health of leading scorer Juwan Staten, who is still recovering from a knee injury. If Staten can play, then the Mountaineers likely have enough firepower to advance.
• Intriguing Potential Future Matchup: How about West Virginia against overall #1 seed Kentucky? The Mountaineers turn opponents over on 28.2 percent of their possessions, and that could cause problems for a Wildcats team that committed 18 turnovers against Louisville’s pressure in an eight-point win back in December. Kentucky’s size would certainly pose problems for the much smaller West Virginia squad, but if the Mountaineers were able to get out in transition it could be a fun battle in the Sweet Sixteen.
• Final Word: Although the Mountaineers drew one of the tougher #12 seeds in the bracket, they should matchup favorably with #4 seed Maryland should they advance. The Terrapins’ guards have relatively high turnover rates and could struggle to make good decisions against the West Virginia press. A Sweet Sixteen appearance is certainly a possibility for Huggins’ group if Staten is ready to go.

Oklahoma State (BG)

• Seed: #9 West
• Quick First-Round Preview: The Cowboys will get a rematch with the Oregon team that vanquished them in the opening round two years ago. Oklahoma State can struggle offensively, but the mediocre Ducks’ defense doesn’t profile as one that can lock down the Big Three of LeBryan Nash, Phil Forte and Michael Cobbins. Likewise, the Pokes will be challenged by Oregon, whose offense ranks 16th nationally, largely on the shoulders of great free throw shooting (76.7%) and four regulars who shoot 35 percent or better from beyond the arc. As well as Oregon shoots free throws, though, it struggles to get to the line, ranking 337th in the country in free throw rate. Foul trouble has been a lingering issue for Oklahoma State, especially considering how thin they are, but if they play smart defense and respect Oregon’s perimeter firepower, they should be able to move on.
• Intriguing Potential Match-Up: Wisconsin is the monster that awaits Oklahoma should either team advance, so it wouldn’t be smart to think any further ahead than the potential Second Round battle with the Badgers. The game plan in that case would be to hope that Wisconsin simply has an off night and that Cobbins and Anthony Allen can stay on the floor long enough to contain Frank Kaminsky.
• Final Word: The Cowboys swept Baylor and Texas and beat Kansas, so there’s a reason they were one of the last Big 12 teams to make it safely into the field. The rest of their resume lacks heft and the team is heavily reliant on Nash, Forte and Cobbins, though. When any of those three has a bad game, the odds of winning quickly sway to the opponents’ favor. When they’re on, though, they’re very tough to beat. The issue is that all three haven’t been on very consistently. Oklahoma State may have benefited more than any Big 12 team by the league’s overall strength, but I would be slightly surprised to see them advance here.

Texas (NK)

• Seed: #11 West
• Quick First Round Preview: The Longhorns were relieved to find out that they would not need to make plans to fly to Dayton but will instead head east to play Butler in Pittsburgh on Thursday afternoon. In terms of what both teams do well, Butler and Texas are in many ways equal. They rebound well and are both ranked among the top 20 in defensive efficiency. Kameron Woods (9.8 RPG) and Roosevelt Jones (5.4 RPG) are solid rebounders in their own right, but Texas will have the noticeable size advantage on those guys with a combination of Ridley, Holmes, Lammert, Ibeh and Turner (25.5 RPG combined average) on the floor.
• Intriguing Potential Matchup: A second round game versus Notre Dame. There wouldn’t be any one-on-one matchups to look forward to, although Jerian Grant facing Texas’ small guards is a frightening thought for any Longhorns fan. These teams have only met three times in history with the Irish taking two of those get-togethers. They will also meet on the football field this fall and next. The original Notre Dame-Texas football agreement called for two more games in 2019 and 2020 but the Irish’s administration decided to nix those in favor of more schedule flexibility. Basically, this game would be intriguing because of intercollegiate scheduling awkwardness, which is to say is not intriguing at all.
• Final Word: The Longhorns match up well enough to beat Butler but to go any further would be a surprise. Depending on whom you ask, Rick Barnes might be coaching for his job so some kind of NCAA Tournament run might be necessary to justify bringing him back for 2015-16.