One week ago, the storyline surrounding Duke‘s visit to Louisville was that Mike Krzyzewski would most likely be going for win #1,000 in his illustrious coaching career. How quickly things change in the world of college basketball! Today, after two discouraging beatings by unranked teams, the Blue Devils head into a Noon ET (ESPN) showdown wondering if they can beat just about anybody right now. So what’s going on with the team that won each game handily on its way to a 14-0 start, including that huge early December win at Wisconsin that seems like ages ago?
Whenever a team goes through a bad stretch, there are invariably multiple reasons for the slump. In Duke’s case, much has been made of the team’s poor defensive play and with good reason — both N.C. State and Miami torched the Blue Devils with over 1.2 points per possession. Duke’s defense struggled in almost every area in both games: off the dribble; perimeter shooters; poor rotation; transition; at the rim. That’s too many areas to fix with strategic adjustments alone. On offense, the team that has ranked first nationally in offensive efficiency for most of the season has suddenly gone ice cold. Senior Quinn Cook is the only perimeter player who can make a jump shot right now, which allows defenses to concentrate on surrounding Jahlil Okafor without paying the price. Consider this: Cook has made 8-of-14 shots from three-point range in the two losses, but the rest of the team is 6-of-35. Perhaps all of that cold shooting is a big reason for the defensive meltdowns that took place in the second half of each loss (see tables below).
After a close first half in each of the two games, Duke’s opponents scored at will, rolling up huge leads over a team that had barely trailed in a game all season. In Tuesday’s postgame press conference, Krzyzewski noted a lack of confidence on display from his youngsters. Perhaps that confidence works both ways. It appears that when Duke struggles early offensively, not only does it zap their confidence, but it obviously raises the play of the opponent. Once another team sees Duke struggle to hit open shots, they begin playing with total belief and tremendous verve. That explains how Duke’s last two opponents have made an astounding 20-of-36 three pointers. Usually good shooters don’t shoot that well unguarded, but N.C. State and Miami not only hit open shots, they drilled contested step-back 24-footers and even banked one in. Only ultra-confident players hit those jumpers, and Duke’s defensive failures are partially responsible for that. Of course, three-point shooting is only part of the problem, so maybe the short term answer is for Duke to hit its shots in the first half and keep the edge in confidence over the opponent. The problem with that strategy is that it’s not a sustainable one over time. If poor shooting causes your play at the defensive end to fall apart, then you have a serious flaw.
From a technical view, Duke’s ball screen defense has clearly become subpar, and that’s being exploited by talented guards like Miami’s Angel Rodriguez and Manu Lecomte, who combined for 47 points in the 90-74 win. Louisville’s Rick Pitino will undoubtedly try the same tactic with his explosive backcourt duo of Chris Jones and Terry Rozier, and he has bested the Blue Devils before with that strategy, using Peyton Siva and Russ Smith to attack repeatedly in the Cards’ 2013 NCAA Regional Final win. Finally, Duke doesn’t have to win today’s game, but the team may be in real trouble if it isn’t competitive. With a young team’s confidence level already on shaky ground, another blowout loss could take weeks to get things turned around.