Heading into a busy weekend of action, here are some key thoughts from a number of scheduled games around the AAC.
Game of the Weekend: Louisville won a national title in April, but it hasn’t beaten a good team since. The Cards are now 13-3 and desperate for anything approaching a quality win, with its next opportunity surprisingly in the form of SMU, which visits the Cardinals on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, CBS Sports Network). SMU’s win over UConn last weekend gives it the sort of resume victory that Louisville lacks, and after two decades without an NCAA Tournament appearance, Hall of Fame head coach Larry Brown has the Mustangs skirting the bubble. SMU features terrific interior defense (a mark of 38.5 percent in two-point field goal defense is the best in the country), and Louisville has had trouble scoring against the type of size SMU will bring. It’s crazy to say, but the Cardinals desperately need this win, and at the same time, it’s the type of victory that could offer the SMU program a major step forward.
Larry Brown has SMU hitting on all cylinders, but can they outrun a desperate Louisville team? (AP Photo/N. Raymond)
Next Best Game: UConn started the season with the look of a top 10 team, posting several dramatic last possession wins and propelling Shabazz Napier into the All-America discussion. They’ve gone 3-3 since, dropping both of its first two conference games on a Texas road trip. It righted the ship enough to overcome a test from a game Harvard team earlier this week, and now will seek its first AAC win against UCF (6:00 PM ET, Saturday, ESPNU). The Knights got off to a good start of their own, posting a 9-4 record boosted by wins over a variety of not-good teams. For UCF to upset the Huskies, they will have to use its one sizable advantage: rebounding. UCF ranks #18 in offensive rebounding percentage and #53 in defensive rebounding percentage. In those same categories, UConn ranks #262 and #206, respectively. The Huskies have to get after the glass.
The Rest of the Games: Memphis will try to find some equilibrium after losing at home to Cincinnati and beating Louisville on the road in a trip to Philadelphia for a date with Temple (3:00 PM, Saturday, ESPN2). To get a road win, the Tigers will probably need to increase their scoring opportunities by forcing some turnovers; Memphis ranks 11th nationally by causing miscues on 23.3 percent of its opponents’ possessions. Temple, by contrast, takes good care of the basketball, with its 14.3 turnover percentage ranking 10th in the country. Cincinnati also hosts Rutgers in a match-up that appears to be a mismatch on paper. Perhaps the biggest problem for the Scarlet Knights is the fact that they’re quite bad at ending defensive possessions with a rebound of some sort; they rank 284th nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, while Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive rebounding percentage. If the Bearcats can’t be kept off the glass, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Rutgers faithful.
The Games That Weren’t: The AAC has 10 teams, and one of the nicest parts about that is they all play each other twice with home-and-home schedules. With an even number of teams and no AAC teams stepping out of conference this weekend, we’re hard pressed to explain why Houston and South Florida don’t grace a basketball court or television near you. South Florida won on Thursday while Houston suffered a tough one-point loss to Cincinnati on Tuesday. USF returns to action next Wednesday, while Houston comes back on Thursday.