Rush The Court

Kansas overcame a three-game losing streak in February and a blowout loss to Baylor in its regular season finale to earn the second overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Jayhawks were given no gifts by the selection committee. Stat geek extraordinaire Nate Silver gives Kansas a 31.6% chance of making the Final Four, the lowest of all the #1 seeds (Louisville was given a 52.9% chance in the Midwest Region, by comparison) and six percentage points lower than the #3 seed in its own South region, Florida. The Gators are #1 at KenPom and #3 in the Sagarin rankings, largely because of their number of blowout wins and close losses this season. Their seven losses were by a combined 4.8 PPG. Their wins, however, were massive. They beat NCAA Tournament teams Wisconsin, Marquette, Missouri, and Middle Tennessee State by a combined 27.5 PPG. As Silver points out, every Gators’ win this season was by 10 points or more. Florida’s survival  — and ultimately Kansas’ too — will come down to which team the Gators really are. If the close losses were mostly a product of luck, as many stats lovers will say, the Gators are the favorite in the South region. If they are a team that continues to struggle with execution down the stretch in close games, the bracket favors Kansas. But Kansas’ tough road begins long before a potential Elite Eight showdown with Florida, as North Carolina could be waiting for the Jayhawks in the Round of 64. The Tarheels are 24-10 and lost six ACC regular season games, so they aren’t drastically underseeded. But a closer look at their resume makes you think they aren’t your normal tune up for a #1 seed prepping for the Sweet Sixteen, either.

• Six of their 10 losses came against Indiana (#1 seed), Duke and Miami (#2 seeds).
• Only two losses this year came against non-NCAA Tournament teams: Texas and Virginia.
• Since Roy Williams inserted sophomore guard P.J. Hairston into the starting lineup at small forward, the Tar Heels are 8-3 with their only losses coming to Duke and Miami. At 6’5″, Hairston at at the four creates a match-up problem for any team with his 38.9% shooting from deep.

History tells us that the #1 seed will much more often than not make the Sweet Sixteen. And assuming Kansas makes it to Arlington, that’s where their tough path begins to take shape. They will likely face #4 seed Michigan or #5 seed VCU in this game. VCU has been a sexy pick to knock off the Jayhawks this week, and on the surface, the upset pick makes sense. The Rams are 25-2 this year against teams with a turnover percentage higher than 18%, but only 1-5 against teams that turn the ball over less than 18% of the time. Kansas is in the Havoc danger zone at 19.9%. Michigan, however, leads the nation in turnover percentage at 14.3%. With National Player of the Year candidate Trey Burke in the backcourt, it’s hard to imagine the VCU pressure affecting Michigan nearly so much. The Rams could go a long way if they knock out the Wolverines in that round, but I wouldn’t count on it. That’s probably why Nate Silver gives VCU just a 25.4% chance to make the Sweet Sixteen while Michigan has a 66% chance of winning two games. So while Jayhawk fans might want a piece of revenge after VCU kept KU out of the Final Four in 2011, they should be singing ‘Hail To The Victors’ in the Round of 32.

Michigan has been in the top 10 all season, with a short stint at #1 in late January. They struggled a bit in the gauntlet of the Big Ten, going 12-6 with two losses to Indiana.  And they certainly benefited from a soft non-conference slate that ranked #187, winning eight games against foes from outside the top 100 in the RPI. They have solid wins against Ohio State and Michigan State at home. But against fellow top five teams in the conference — Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin — the Wolverines were 2-6. They don’t defend all that well, either, with an adjusted defensive efficiency ranked #58 at Kenpom.com. Trey Burke would have the advantage at the point guard spot and forward Glenn Robinson III would have the advantage over the Jayhawks’ Kevin Young and Perry Ellis, but the undersized starting frontcourt of Robinson III (6’6″) and Jordan Morgan (6’8″) would struggle in the post against the 7’0″ shot-blocking of Jeff Withey. Withey’s defense, rebounding, and ability to alter attempts at the rim would give the Jayhawks a significant advantage overall.

I like Florida to beat #2 seed Georgetown in the Sweet Sixteen. John Thompson III has struggled in the Dance lately, failing to make the second weekend for the last five seasons. The Hoyas’ offense is rough, ranked just #62 by KenPom. Their resume is solid, though, with wins over UCLA, Louisville, Marquette, and Syracuse twice, as well as winning the Big East regular season co-championship. Sophomore wing Otto Porter, Jr., might just be the best player in the country, averaging 16.3 PPG and 7.4 RPG this season.  He will have to maintain those numbers to keep the Georgetown offense from sinking, but I don’t see it being enough against the balanced attack of Florida in the Sweet Sixteen.

Now it comes down to personal preference. There aren’t many blowouts in the NCAA Tournament’s later rounds, and Bill Self is rarely on the wrong end of a lopsided game. Both Self and Donovan have been to multiple Final Fours and both coaches have won national championships. As mentioned earlier, the computers all love the Gators. Even as a #3 seed, they have the third-highest odds of winning the national title behind Louisville and Indiana. Their 12.7% chance is more than double any other team in the entire West Region as well as every other #2 seed. But again, that’s if you like the numbers. Maybe all those close losses were a sign of things to come. Maybe it was bad luck. Whatever the case, have a blast deciding before Thursday morning. With the tough games for top-seeded Kansas early on in this region, though, I’ll go with the Gators to advance out of the South.

• Champion: Florida
• Potential First Weekend Upsets: #11 Minnesota over #6 UCLA, #8 North Carolina over #1 Kansas
• Potential Final Four Sleeper: VCU