Iowa State has the ability to shoot its way to the Elite Eight or end its 2013 NCAA Tournament run in around two and a half hours. That sounds cliche because it is, but this Cyclones team plays that way. They are first in the country with 878 three-point attempts and 325 three-pointers made this season, good enough for 37% (#52 nationally). Their adjusted offensive efficiency is eighth according to KenPom but they don’t really play much defense, with an adjusted defensive efficiency at 121st nationally. A defense that bad is typically not a winning formula in March, but can such a trigger-happy offense get hot from deep and win you a few games? Sure.
The Cyclones play #7 seed Notre Dame in the Round of 64, a team that likes nothing better than to walk the ball up and keep the game in the half-court. The Irish’s adjusted tempo is 320th in the country, and they are 129th in the country in possessions. Iowa State, on the other hand, is 20th. The Cyclones are fifth in PPG (79.6), while Notre Dame clocks in at 100th (70.4 PPG). Like nearly every other Iowa State game this season, if Fred Hoiberg’s group hits their shots they’ll have a great chance to win. If not, they’ll be done. It sounds simple because it is. They won’t shut a team down when their shots aren’t falling. If Notre Dame defends the perimeter, they should win. But don’t expect it. Take the Cyclones.
Shooting your way past Notre Dame and shooting your way past Ohio State are two very different things, though. The Buckeyes are another slow-tempo team, but their defense is top notch, rated sixth in the nation. They have one of the best perimeter defenders in the country in Aaron Craft, and are one of the most disciplined teams in the Dance. Their only relatively-bad loss was on the road at Illinois over two months ago. The rest of their losses came against top four seeds — Duke, Kansas, Michigan, Michigan State, Indiana, and Wisconsin — so it’s hard to see a three-point chucking team like Iowa State taking the Buckeyes out in the Round of 32. OSU has the coaching, talent, and experience to slow the game down and make life miserable for Iowa State offensively. And when they beat the Cyclones, they could face a non-power conference team in the Sweet Sixteen: #3 seed New Mexico.
The Lobos have the nation’s second best RPI and Strength of Schedule, but their offense is lacking, scoring only 67.4 PPG. They have a bunch of RPI top 50 wins, but their best wins of the season came against #8 seed Colorado State and #5 seed UNLV in conference play. They also lost to Air Force just a few weeks ago. It’s hard to see the Lobos outplaying Ohio State with an Elite Eight on the line, giving us one of the potentially best regional final games of entire Tournament: Ohio State vs. Gonzaga. You could argue that #2 seed Ohio State has the easier path to that point. Gonzaga could play Pittsburgh in the Round of 32, potentially followed by #5 Wisconsin, who knocked off Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament and swept #4 seed Michigan this season. Nate Silver gives the Buckeyes a 23.8% chance to make the Final Four out of the West, with Gonzaga the favorite to advance to Atlanta. And while the Zags are the #1 seed, they’ve been treated like just another mid-major this week when people talk about their chances. Picking the Zags to win the region might have the best value in your bracket pool as most other people will choose Ohio State. I think the Bulldogs are the best team in the region, anyway.
- Champion: Gonzaga
- Potential First Weekend Upsets: #11 Belmont over #6 Arizona, #8 Pittsburgh over #1 Gonzaga
- Final Four Sleeper: #4 Wisconsin