Over the next few weeks we will be diagnosing some of the weaknesses and reasons behind the struggles of some Big East teams. First up is a look at the 11-8 Pittsburgh Panthers who are off to an 0-6 start in conference play.
We thought we knew Pittsburgh. We trusted Ashton Gibbs. We believed in Jamie Dixon and his system. Those are the reasons people like us were spreading when we all predicted the Panthers to be a near-consensus Top 20 team this season. Two months later, those people — and us — are on our heels as one of the most consistent winners in the conference has suddenly lost its formula to success. Since Jamie Dixon took over for Ben Howland after the 2003 season, the Panthers have never lost more than 10 games in a season, including the NCAA Tournament. Following last night’s loss to Syracuse, Dixon’s club has lost seven games in a row. We are here to help you understand why.
1. It has been a senior season to forget for Ashton Gibbs.
One of the primary reasons Gibbs returned for his senior season after declaring for the NBA Draft last year was that he wanted to improve his draft stock. And one of the primary reasons Pittsburgh was considered a Top 20 team was because they fortunately returned one of the conference’s best players and elite scorers. But, after being named the preseason conference player of the year, this season has been an unmitigated disaster for Gibbs. For starters, his three-point percentage has plummeted from 49% all the way to 34.1%, which is even worse when you consider he is attempting more three-pointers this season. His field goal percentage has also dropped to just 38.3% and he is turning the ball over more than he ever has in his career. To be fair, Tray Woodall has missed a lot of time, which has forced Gibbs to play point guard, which is clearly not where he is most comfortable. Also, Brad Wanamaker and Gilbert Brown helped draw some attention off Gibbs’ last season as well. But for a senior with NBA aspirations, this season couldn’t have gone much worse. Luckily, there is still time for Gibbs and the team to salvage something before time runs out.
2. Where has Jamie Dixon’s defense gone?
Part of the reason Pitt has been so consistent over the past eight seasons is because you could always count on the team running an efficient offense and playing rugged defense as long as Dixon was coach. The offense has still been there this season, but the Panthers are #183 in adjusted defensive efficiency and are #218 in defensive effective field goal percentage. The team misses Wanamaker and Brown’s perimeter defense, but they also miss big man Gary McGhee‘s rebounding and shot-altering ability in the paint as well. To put it bluntly, the Panthers don’t have a single player on their roster who can be considered a defensive stopper. Khem Birch had been an emerging shot-blocker, but he is gone and Dante Taylor isn’t long or athletic enough to pick up the slack.
3. Speaking of Taylor, the Panthers’ roster doesn’t feature many dependable big men.
McGhee — he of the 6.9 PPG average last season — can hardly be considered elite, especially in a conference full of talented big men. But he was smart, tough, disciplined, and an excellent rebounder, and the Panthers didn’t need anything more. Before McGhee was DeJuan Blair and even Tyrell Biggs to some extent. In this season, well, there has been no one to fill that void. Taylor — a four-star recruit out of high school — was supposed to be the next in line, but his improvements have been slow and he has half the defensive ability that McGhee had. Birch was on his way to becoming dependable before he left the program. Talib Zanna is a solid role player but can’t be considered a dependable big man, especially defensively. And the player with the most ability pm that end, 6-foot-11 freshman Malcolm Gilbert, still hasn’t adjusted to the college game yet and has played in only seven games. Make no mistake about it, the Panthers still rebound the ball effectively, but the dearth of defensive-minded big men is the primary reason opponents are shooting the ball better this season.
4. Tray Woodall’s injury has meant a less dynamic and less balanced offensive attack.
In the first seven games of the season it looked like Woodall was on his way to becoming one of the conference’s best point guards. He was shooting the ball better, especially from downtown, and he racked up 10 assists in four games. Then Woodall injured his groin and his abdominal muscles late in a victory over Duquesne and except for 18 impact-less minutes against Notre Dame, Woodall hasn’t been seen on the court since. In addition to forcing Gibbs to play out of position, the injury has taken away most of Pitt’s ability to drive into the lane. With apologies to Nasir Robinson, Woodall was the team’s second-best offensive player and his versatility alternating as a scorer and a distributor made the Panthers a very difficult team to defend. Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be any sort of definitive timetable on when Woodall will return. If he doesn’t, Dixon will just have to find a way to replicate his abilities the best way he can. If he does, Pitt may still have enough left to make a run at the NCAA Tournament.