Rush The Court

Zach Hayes is an editor, contributor and bracketologist for Rush the Court.

As we did on Thursday, let’s delve into each Sweet 16 participant from both two polar opposite points of view: the indelible optimist and the hopeless pessimist.  Everywhere from Lawrence to Richmond, fan bases are filled with those that see the glass half full and those that view the glass half empty. The optimist will take the viewpoint that their favorite team is destined for Houston while the pessimist sees the bitter end approaching tonight.

Ohio State

Optimist: It’s very easy to be optimistic about my Buckeyes. We’ve been the best in the nation all season long, losing two road games to teams that went undefeated on their home floor. Duke is the only other team with an offensive and defensive efficiency in the top six and they don’t shoot 42% from three. There are so many weapons in our seven-man rotation that even if two starters slump, there are two other all-conference caliber players to pick up the scoring load. Take David Lighty making seven threes against George Mason as a perfect example. Our two star freshmen are often confused with wily fifth year seniors they way they operate. People don’t talk about how we consistently keeping opponents off the free throw line, either. This team’s maturity and experience will outlast Kentucky and our ability to keep North Carolina in the halfcourt for 40 minutes renders their greatest strength inconsequential.

Pessimist: What does a #1 overall seed earn you in the eyes of this idiotic committee? The hardest road to the Final Four. If there are two teams remaining in the field other than fellow top seeds Duke and Kansas that can match our talent level, it’s Kentucky and North Carolina. I’m worried about Brandon Knight and Doron Lamb having a field day from three. If Terrence Jones decides to play physical in the post rather than drift around the perimeter, I’m worried he may be too big and strong for even an ace defender like David Lighty to handle. DeAndre Liggins can also give William Buford headaches with his length and athleticism. If there’s any weakness to this team, it’s our mediocre three-point defense and Kentucky can really shoot the basketball this season. John Calipari is a master motivator and will surely hammer that underdog mentality into his team’s head all week long, so the pressure is almost totally on us to win or this season’s finish will be tremendously disappointing.

Kentucky

Optimist: All season, Kentucky couldn’t win a close game on the road and struggled in neutral court losses to Connecticut and Notre Dame. Our freshmen were freshmen then. Starting with that road win in the season finale over Tennessee and extending through the SEC Tournament and Saturday’s hard-fought victory over West Virginia, these freshmen, notably Brandon Knight, have finally figured it out. I’m not overly concerned about Josh Harrellson attempting to corral Jared Sullinger. Our post defense – sixth in the country in two-point defense and block percentage – has been stellar all season long, and Harrellson is hitting his stride alongside the freshmen trio. Knight is the true game-changer, though. He’s got the quickness, athleticism and versatility to give Aaron Craft and Kendall Marshall fits trying to defend him. Those road woes masked what was a really strong and capable team all season. As demanding as our fan base may sometimes be, Calipari and his players know they’re not expected to win this region. I fully expect that loose mentality to translate into two shocking victories.

Pessimist: Our defense has been solid all season, but it’s never seen an offensive attack hitting on all cylinders like Ohio State. That team is coming off two NCAA Tournament games where they assisted on 49 of 65 field goals and we needed a Knight game-winner just to edge Princeton. Craft has been an unreal defender all season for them and if Knight is taken out his game similarly to Thursday, our offense becomes stagnant and the Buckeyes will pounce. I realize Harrellson, Liggins and Miller are veterans, but those three haven’t exactly been a model of consistency over their UK careers. Face it: this team depends on their three freshmen for scoring production. Ohio State has a fifth-year senior, two fourth-year seniors and a junior in their starting five. Experience is invaluable when you reach the second weekend.

North Carolina

Optimist: In case you haven’t noticed, Kendall Marshall completely changed this team. We’ve lost two games since January 16 and both came against #1 seed Duke. We’ve scored 75+ points in 11 of those games with Marshall running the show, a true difference maker at the most important position on the floor and someone that’s turned around Harrison Barnes’ rookie campaign. People love to discuss Marshall and Barnes and Tyler Zeller, but it’s our defense that has been steady since the first day of the season, ranking seventh in the nation in overall efficiency. A huge part of that is the shot-blocking ability of John Henson. How can the perennially undersized Marquette frontline possibly contain the constantly improving Henson and Zeller in the post? Remember that this is a Marquette team that lost 14 games this season. It’s not like they can’t be beat.

Pessimist: I’m scared to death of Buzz Williams throwing a zone at us. If there’s one glaring weakness with this Heels team, it’s our 33% mark from three on the season. If we get off to our usual slow start (see: ACC Tournament), Marquette grabs an early lead and starts to gain confidence, freshmen and sophomores like Barnes, Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald may start to press and chuck up ill-advised threes. Marquette did a fantastic job of preventing Syracuse from getting out in transition, so the blueprint is there to keep Carolina in the halfcourt against a zone. Our team-wide 67% mark from the charity stripe could also come into play late in games against Marquette and two proficient shooting teams in Ohio State or Kentucky. Contrary to the likes of David Lighty, Darius Miller or Jimmy Butler, the freshmen and sophomores that make up the brunt of our regular rotation haven’t experienced the overwhelming emotion, pressure and consequence that every possession the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament provides. Even Tyler Zeller, a junior, only played 32 minutes in six tournament games during our 2009 title run.

Marquette

Optimist: The statistics show that we’ve been a mediocre defensive team all season. Throw those numbers in the garbage. This team has been energized and focused on the defensive end since that Seton Hall setback in the Big East finale and the results have been encouraging: Xavier turned the ball over 15 times compared to 21 field goals and A-10 POY Tu Holloway was held to five points, then Syracuse turned the ball over 18 times compared to 26 field goals and Scoop Jardine notched just six points. I fully realize the draw is extremely daunting, but Marquette will never be out-worked for 40 minutes. That bulk number of losses hides what has been a really solid team all season. Our first double-digit loss came on February 15 against St. John’s, by that time our 11^th defeat of the campaign. Carolina has allowed 75+ points in their last four games, so they haven’t exactly been a defensive juggernaut lately. If we can keep Carolina in the halfcourt and establish that same aggressive mentality we demonstrated in Cleveland, I think the heart and determination of this ragtag bunch of JUCO’s will prevail.

Pessimist: At the collegiate level, the most important position on the court is point guard. Advantage: North Carolina. As much as Cadougan has come on lately, he’s still a 20 MPG player with almost no offensive game to speak of. Marshall’s 24 assists and six turnovers thus far in the tournament display he’s not exactly hitting a freshman wall in March. The length and skill of UNC’s frontcourt is going to give Marquette fits too. Butler can defend quicker guards, but can he, the 6’6 Crowder and inexperienced Chris Otule possibly contain the 6’10 Henson and 7’0 Zeller? If Williams comes with a consistent double, open looks for Barnes, Strickland and McDonald will be in high supply. Carolina simply has too much talent across the board, especially against a defense that allowed 36% from three and 48% from two on the season. Now the question becomes: can we keep Buzz Williams?

Kansas

Optimist: I can easily trot out a bunch to numbers to show Kansas is one of the most productive and efficient teams in the nation on both ends of the floor. Instead, I’ll just show you the scorched earth that is our region. With Notre Dame, Purdue, Louisville and Vanderbilt all falling in the first weekend, the road to Houston has never been easier for a #1 seed. Standing in our way first is Richmond, a fantastic matchup for us because Morris twins can easily track the versatile Justin Harper around the perimeter and zoning Kansas is practically a death sentence. In the Elite 8 is either a VCU team playing completely over their heads or a Florida State team that can’t possibly match our high-powered offense over 40 minutes. Look at the way we shredded a stalwart Texas defense in the Big 12 title game if you’re anticipating that Seminoles defense giving us any trouble. This is a cakewalk, folks.

Pessimist: It’s difficult to be pessimistic about our chances given that only double-digit seeds stand in the way of a ticket to Houston. Then again, pounding substantial underdogs prior to the Final Four hasn’t exactly been a given during the Bill Self era. I painfully remind fellow KU fans brimming with confidence of Bucknell in 2005, Bradley in 2006 and Northern Iowa in 2010. During March Madness, emotion, momentum and confidence can often supplant pure talent differential as a determining factor. It’s not as though this current Jayhawks squad has been immune to the occasional letdown in performance. Take their near-escapes of teams like USC, UCLA and Michigan in the non-conference as evidence we can occasionally play down to our competition. In a weird way, I’d almost feel more comfortable if Louisville was the Sweet 16 opponent. It’s unimaginable to lose focus with a trip to the Final Four on the line, but if Kansas takes their foot off the gas pedal against these rugged underdogs with nothing to lose, it could spell trouble.

Richmond

Optimist: If there’s one area where Kansas hasn’t excelled this season, it’s been turnover differential. Their lack of aggression will allow us to get into our halfcourt sets and out-execute Kansas on that front. If we can utilize our Princeton-style offense to set up quality shot opportunities for our plethora of capable options offensively and Kansas starts to fumble away possessions on their end, a historical upset could be in the making. In summary, we want to be the smarter team for 40 minutes and hope that the cockiness and over-confidence of the Jayhawks causes them to take us lightly. It would also help if Kevin Anderson got into a zone during the last five minutes of a close game as he did against Vanderbilt. VCU and Florida State are plenty flawed that it’s not crazy to dream of a Final Four if Kansas is slain.

Pessimist: Face it: we’re lucky to still be playing. Kevin Anderson was unconscious against a Vanderbilt team that’s making it a habit to lose in the first round and Morehead State was a stroke of fortune as a second round opponent. Anderson’s position may not even be a definite advantage for us heading into Friday’s game as Tyshawn Taylor played heady basketball during KU’s first two tournament wins. We’re simply unable to match the marvelous depth of talent Self has assembled on their roster. Marcus and Markieff Morris are so versatile that our usual matchup nightmare in Harper will likely be neutralized. Kansas is first in the country at 57% FG from inside the arc, a full seven points ahead of our inside attack. The Jayhawks know how to get quality looks on a regular basis and Self won’t have them overlooking any opponent with the Final Four well within their grasp.

VCU

Optimist: Even the most raging optimist didn’t see this coming. Sure, downing a beatable USC team and then dispatching of a hobbled Georgetown squad wasn’t far-fetched, but scoring 1.48 points per possession against a quality Purdue defense was staggering. The NCAA Tournament is all about who plays their best basketball at the right time (look at Duke last season) and nobody is hotter than my Rams, largely because of our three-headed monster of senior point guard Joey Rodriguez, athletic big man Jamie Skeen and sharpshooter Bradford Burgess. We’ve committed just 19 turnovers in 187 tournament possessions because of Rodriguez, Skeen is making 57% of his shots against three teams with quality bigs and Burgess is connecting on 40% of his treys. The FSU defense is frightening, but it’s nothing my Rams can’t overcome. Purdue featured the #11 defensive in the nation in terms of efficiency and we ripped them to shreds.

Pessimist: This has to stop sometime. The four days in between games will extinguish any remaining momentum from the Chicago games and the “nobody believes in us!” mantra can only carry a team so far. The Seminoles suffocating defense is going to show up. Florida State is vulnerable when they’re unable to generate consistent offense. Unlike the NCAA Tournament where we’re playing over our heads, VCU’s defense has been uninspiring all season. We held USC, Georgetown and Purdue to a combined 23% from three when we were surrendering 34% from beyond the arc on the season. On the flip side, our 41% from that spot in the tournament is higher than the 36% we posted all year long. The Seminoles tremendous length, athleticism and versatility are hard enough to handle for any elite team. It should be even more of a challenge for a team masquerading as elite, but in reality is only very good.

Florida State

Optimist: Everyone counted us out when Chris Singleton broke his foot in February. A month later, we’re in the Sweet 16 and Singleton scored a combined five points in our first and second round wins. He barely played in our dismantling of Notre Dame, an offense that looked like an unstoppable force at times this season completely flummoxed by our extended pressure man-to-man defense. It really doesn’t matter if the opponent is VCU, Kansas, Ohio State or any other team still alive, our defense is a game-changer and re-working Singleton into the lineup for 25-30 minutes per night is only going to make it considerably stronger. I’m supremely confident the ability of guys like Derwin Kitchen on the perimeter and Bernard James or Okaro White inside will make scoring on Georgetown and Purdue look like a walk in the park by comparison.

Pessimist: As incredible as our defense has been all season, and really throughout Leonard Hamilton’s coaching tenure in Tallahassee, I’ve seen this team crawl into way too many scoring funks to be comfortable. FSU doesn’t rank in the top 100 in offensive efficiency, 2-point or 3-point percentage and turns the ball over on 23% of their possessions. We were able to score against a Notre Dame team that’s been shaky defensively all season, but what’s going to happen against Kansas? Or, if VCU can accomplish their goal of making this a high-possession, breakneck pace game like they did against USC, we could be in trouble even earlier than the Elite 8. Winning 55-54 against the Rams is highly unlikely.